Rother Valley

[stb12]

Rother Valley

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Tony Harrison (Reform UK)
Paul Martin (Green)
Jake Richards (Lab)
Alexander Stafford* (Con)
Colin Taylor (Lib Dem)

[YL]

www.rotherham.gov.uk/elections-voting/parliamentary-general-election-4-july-2024/3

5 candidates, as already listed

[YL]

@weld has been talking Reform UK up here in other threads.

I think it's unlikely myself, with the strong Tory performance in the local elections suggesting that they might hold up better than average here, though presumably not by enough to actually hold the seat, and that wouldn't be conducive to Reform UK being in contention. But I'm open to discussion.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 17:11:18 GMT YL said:

@weld has been talking Reform UK up here in other threads.

I think it's unlikely myself, with the strong Tory performance in the local elections suggesting that they might hold up better than average here, though presumably not by enough to actually hold the seat, and that wouldn't be conducive to Reform UK being in contention. But I'm open to discussion.

Talking up? IIRC, I mentioned it on a single thread based on one poll. Usual heath warning when comparing locals to the GE - how many Councillors did the Tories have in Morley & Outwood before winning it in 2015? Answer: 0.

[jamie]

Jun 14, 2024 17:11:18 GMT YL said:

I think it's unlikely myself, with the strong Tory performance in the local elections suggesting that they might hold up better than average here, though presumably not by enough to actually hold the seat, and that wouldn't be conducive to Reform UK being in contention. But I'm open to discussion.

I don’t think Reform will be in contention, but they could come 2nd given UKIP did so in 2015, the Brexit Party still did well in 2019 with 13%, and if you're looking for a constituency that has a lot of voters who aren’t favourable towards either major party and really doesn’t like immigration, Rother Valley would be a top contender. 

[Clark]

I think the Tories carried all wards here apart from the one near Sheffield last month, albeit Independent's featured too. The one ward coming in from Rotherham performed well for them too. 5/1 for the Conservatives to hold here look a decent bet.

[YL]

Jun 15, 2024 14:12:54 GMT Clark said:

I think the Tories carried all wards here apart from the one near Sheffield last month, albeit Independent's featured too. The one ward coming in from Rotherham performed well for them too. 5/1 for the Conservatives to hold here look a decent bet.

There isn't really a ward coming in from Rotherham: the only part of this constituency which was in the old Rotherham is a small area of Herringthorpe which was moved into Sitwell ward in the ward review and now joins the rest of it here. Meanwhile Treeton and the part of Waverley which was here move to Rotherham, and the part of Bramley which was here moves to Rawmarsh & Conisbrough.

The Tories definitely carried the constituency in the locals: using "top vote" I make it Con 37%, Lab 30%. Labour carried Aughton & Swallownest and, narrowly, Maltby East (which split). Ex-Labour Independents took both seats in Wales, and the Tories carried the remaining wards, though they only monopolised the seats in two (Hellaby & Maltby West and Thurcroft & Wickersley South).

[Clark]

Jun 15, 2024 14:50:36 GMT YL said:

Jun 15, 2024 14:12:54 GMT Clark said:

I think the Tories carried all wards here apart from the one near Sheffield last month, albeit Independent's featured too. The one ward coming in from Rotherham performed well for them too. 5/1 for the Conservatives to hold here look a decent bet.

There isn't really a ward coming in from Rotherham: the only part of this constituency which was in the old Rotherham is a small area of Herringthorpe which was moved into Sitwell ward in the ward review and now joins the rest of it here. Meanwhile Treeton and the part of Waverley which was here move to Rotherham, and the part of Bramley which was here moves to Rawmarsh & Conisbrough.

The Tories definitely carried the constituency in the locals: using "top vote" I make it Con 37%, Lab 30%. Labour carried Aughton & Swallownest and, narrowly, Maltby East (which split). Ex-Labour Independents took both seats in Wales, and the Tories carried the remaining wards, though they only monopolised the seats in two (Hellaby & Maltby West and Thurcroft & Wickersley South).

It's incredible the Tories and Labour were basically neck in neck in Maltby East in 2024. 

In 1996, Maltby town voted 90% Labour to 10% Con.

[finsobruce]

Jun 15, 2024 15:00:48 GMT Clark said:

Jun 15, 2024 14:50:36 GMT YL said:

There isn't really a ward coming in from Rotherham: the only part of this constituency which was in the old Rotherham is a small area of Herringthorpe which was moved into Sitwell ward in the ward review and now joins the rest of it here. Meanwhile Treeton and the part of Waverley which was here move to Rotherham, and the part of Bramley which was here moves to Rawmarsh & Conisbrough.

The Tories definitely carried the constituency in the locals: using "top vote" I make it Con 37%, Lab 30%. Labour carried Aughton & Swallownest and, narrowly, Maltby East (which split). Ex-Labour Independents took both seats in Wales, and the Tories carried the remaining wards, though they only monopolised the seats in two (Hellaby & Maltby West and Thurcroft & Wickersley South).

It's incredible the Tories and Labour were basically neck in neck in Maltby East in 2024. 

In 1996, Maltby town voted 90% Labour to 10% Con.

Demographic change is never only in one direction.

[Sibboleth]

There's also the reality that local and national elections differ quite a lot in some places and the reputation of the local party in this area is not... um... fantastic.

[birkinabe]

Also, wouldn't Maltby East have been much safer for Labour than any other ward in this seat if the last two sets of council election results were attributable to demography alone? The fact it wasn't suggests that there has indeed been something else at play here.

[YL]

Jun 15, 2024 18:03:01 GMT birkinabe said:

Also, wouldn't Maltby East have been much safer for Labour than any other ward in this seat if the last two sets of council election results were attributable to demography alone? The fact it wasn't suggests that there has indeed been something else at play here.

Yes. Some demographic stats by ward are in this post.

[Deleted]

Jun 15, 2024 12:39:39 GMT jamie said:

Jun 14, 2024 17:11:18 GMT YL said:

I think it's unlikely myself, with the strong Tory performance in the local elections suggesting that they might hold up better than average here, though presumably not by enough to actually hold the seat, and that wouldn't be conducive to Reform UK being in contention. But I'm open to discussion.

I don’t think Reform will be in contention, but they could come 2nd given UKIP did so in 2015, the Brexit Party still did well in 2019 with 13%, and if you're looking for a constituency that has a lot of voters who aren’t favourable towards either major party and really doesn’t like immigration, Rother Valley would be a top contender. 

Reform don't have the local government presence that UKIP had here, and while that may not matter, it means Labour starts with a pretty strong advantage because of a likely split in the right-wing vote. Labour could win with 1/3 of the vote while Reform and the Tories scrap it out for second place. 

[Deleted]

Poll please, AdminSTB? Labour, Conservative, Reform. Thank you.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 19, 2024 3:38:53 GMT @weld said:

Poll please, AdminSTB ? Labour, Conservative, Reform. Thank you.

@weld you need to ask stb12 for polls.

[YL]

Tories held up much better here than in Penistone & Stocksbridge, only losing by 998.

[rcronald]

Jul 5, 2024 3:46:14 GMT YL said:

Tories held up much better here than in Penistone & Stocksbridge, only losing by 998.

Impressive result for Stafford.

[Deleted]

Tories are competent here locally and I think there's an anti-Rotherham town appeal to them. Trumbull County, Ohio really ain't a bad comparison. 

[heslingtonian]

Jul 5, 2024 3:46:47 GMT rcronald said:

Jul 5, 2024 3:46:14 GMT YL said:

Tories held up much better here than in Penistone & Stocksbridge, only losing by 998.

Impressive result for Stafford.

Stafford's brother won Farnham & Bordon.