Barnsley South

[stb12]

Barnsley South

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Simon Biltcliffe (Yorkshire Party)
Simon Clement-Jones (Lib Dem)
Trevor Mayne (Green)
Stephanie Peacock* (Lab)
Suzanne Pearson (Con)
Terry Robinson (Socialist Labour)
Maxine Spencer (Eng Dem/UKIP)
David White (Reform UK)

[markgoodair]

Mar 14, 2024 7:23:11 GMT YL said:

Almanac profile

Candidates

Stephanie Peacock* (Lab)
Simon Clement-Jones (Lib Dem)
David White (Reform UK)

David White represents Rockingham ward on Barnsley Council and was elected as a Conservative candidate.

[bsjmcr]

Apr 8, 2024 14:31:45 GMT markgoodair said:

Mar 14, 2024 7:23:11 GMT YL said:

Almanac profile

Candidates

Stephanie Peacock* (Lab)
Simon Clement-Jones (Lib Dem)
David White (Reform UK)

David White represents Rockingham ward on Barnsley Council and was elected as a Conservative candidate.

No doubt there’ll be much ramping of Reform’s chances here and Barnsley North given the Brexit Party did very well last time… they‘ll probably keep their deposit and may well do better than Tice in Hartlepool, but that’s as far as it goes…

[YL]

www.barnsley.gov.uk/services/voting-and-elections/uk-parliamentary-general-election-4-july-2024/

8 candidates, including Socialist Labour and "Patriots Alliance" (Eng Dem/UKIP joint).

[markgoodair]

ABC have been to this seat to see how things are going

[YL]

Exit poll may be wrong here:

[YL]

Lab hold confirmed.

[YL]

Another question for those who calculate notionals: could Reform have carried any wards here? The Labour lead across the constituency was 13.5 percentage points, so there would have to have been a reasonable amount of variation, but Rockingham, the ward where the Reform candidate is a councillor, might be a candidate. (He was elected as a Conservative, the only person ever to win a non-Penistone seat for the Tories on Barnsley MBC, but defected to Reform.)

[bjornhattan]

Aug 9, 2024 7:19:33 GMT YL said:

Another question for those who calculate notionals: could Reform have carried any wards here? The Labour lead across the constituency was 13.5 percentage points, so there would have to have been a reasonable amount of variation, but Rockingham, the ward where the Reform candidate is a councillor, might be a candidate. (He was elected as a Conservative, the only person ever to win a non-Penistone seat for the Tories on Barnsley MBC, but defected to Reform.)

My figures don't have Reform ahead anywhere - there is a bit of a divide between the Barnsley town wards (especially Kingstone) where I have Labour ahead by 15-22% and then the other wards covering more peripheral areas.

I have Reform as strongest in Wombwell (44.2% Lab, 35.1% Reform) but notably Rockingham is the second most marginal ward with Labour ahead by about 11% there. Of course my model doesn't factor in local results or where incumbents may have additional strength, so in practice it's likely that Rockingham would have been closest. I still think the seat is too homogeneous for Reform to win there but a Labour majority of about 5% seems plausible?

[jamie]

Aug 9, 2024 7:19:33 GMT YL said:

Another question for those who calculate notionals: could Reform have carried any wards here? The Labour lead across the constituency was 13.5 percentage points, so there would have to have been a reasonable amount of variation, but Rockingham, the ward where the Reform candidate is a councillor, might be a candidate. (He was elected as a Conservative, the only person ever to win a non-Penistone seat for the Tories on Barnsley MBC, but defected to Reform.)

I have Labour ahead 2% in Rockingham, with adjacent Hoyland Milton having a 5% margin. FWIW, I have Labour well ahead in Wombwell as local elections don’t suggest it’s a particularly marginal ward.