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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2024 18:30:45 GMT
although Aldridge-Brownhills seems even safer still now.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 22, 2024 18:37:15 GMT
although Aldridge-Brownhills seems even safer still now. It's a different sort of Conservative for the most part, much more inclined to Reform and much more anti-EU. Obviously Streetly is part of the same area with the same demographic as Sutton Coldfield, but it only forms a small part of the constituency. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 22, 2024 19:39:01 GMT
although Aldridge-Brownhills seems even safer still now. No with Reform in the game, Wendy Morton is no Richard Shephard. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 9:19:28 GMT
Why did the Lib Dems never get competitive here? You'd think it was an obvious berth for them in parts. Mitchell is a good fit for the seat, like Brady in Altrincham.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2024 10:48:51 GMT
Why did the Lib Dems never get competitive here? You'd think it was an obvious berth for them in parts. Mitchell is a good fit for the seat, like Brady in Altrincham. The Liberals did, IIRC, win two of the three wards in Sutton (New Hall and Vesey I think) in the first elections to the West Midlands county council. hullenedge will know more - I've sadly lost my copy of the book that gave some details of those results. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:50:48 GMT
Why did the Lib Dems never get competitive here? You'd think it was an obvious berth for them in parts. Mitchell is a good fit for the seat, like Brady in Altrincham. The Liberals did, IIRC, win two of the three wards in Sutton (New Hall and Vesey I think) in the first elections to the West Midlands county council. hullenedge will know more - I've sadly lost my copy of the book that gave some details of those results. I know Robert Pocock got quite embedded in one of the wards here, but I get the sense some of the Tory strength apart from solid candidates like Fowler and Mitchell, might be down to a general anti-Brum sentiment or partly white flight from the big smoke. I don't know and it may be the case that new arrivals would still vote Tory if they lived in Edgbaston or similar surroundings |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2024 10:56:34 GMT
I don't that Mitchell is a particular asset here. His results have never suggested that he outperforms what a generic Tory candidate would. Of course the Birmingham factor has been and remains significant, same as Waltham Forest to Chingford was until recently (still is to an extent in local elections). I guess that shifts as certain demographics move into the area from Birmingham (again as with Chingford)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 11:06:21 GMT
I don't that Mitchell is a particular asset here. His results have never suggested that he outperforms what a generic Tory candidate would. Of course the Birmingham factor has been and remains significant, same as Waltham Forest to Chingford was until recently (still is to an extent in local elections). I guess that shifts as certain demographics move into the area from Birmingham (again as with Chingford) That's a good parallel, right down to the gentrification in parts of Walthamstow pushing people further out as in some bits of Brum. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 23, 2024 11:15:24 GMT
Why did the Lib Dems never get competitive here? You'd think it was an obvious berth for them in parts. Mitchell is a good fit for the seat, like Brady in Altrincham. The Liberals did, IIRC, win two of the three wards in Sutton (New Hall and Vesey I think) in the first elections to the West Midlands county council. hullenedge will know more - I've sadly lost my copy of the book that gave some details of those results. The Libs did win two out of the three SC divisions but the Tories polled the most votes overall however a month later saw a clean sweep for the Conservatives (nine out of 9). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2024 11:22:08 GMT
The Liberals did, IIRC, win two of the three wards in Sutton (New Hall and Vesey I think) in the first elections to the West Midlands county council. hullenedge will know more - I've sadly lost my copy of the book that gave some details of those results. The Libs did win two out of the three SC divisions but the Tories polled the most votes overall however a month later saw a clean sweep for the Conservatives (nine out of 9). I was sure you'd know. Yes if I remember correctly the Liberals won in New Hall and Vesey narrowly but the Conservatives still had a pretty commanding lead in Four Oaks. It seems to have been a pretty aberrent result though - as you say not even replicated a month later never mind later than that. You'd think there are similarities with places like Orpington, Sutton & Cheam, Cheadle etc. Famously Norman Fowler used to repeat (in the 90s) how some by-election models from the 80s had shown he would be the only surviving Conservative MP if the result was repeated nationally. But I wonder if there actually had been a by-election there in say 1981, whether the Liberals might actually have gained it. |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 23, 2024 11:57:36 GMT
I do think that the demographics are slowly shifting in Labour's favour, as any such seat bordering a big, Labour voting city with a large minority would. But I don't think it's at the stage where the seat would go Labour just yet. Perhaps in a decade. Labour might well carry the area around the town centre and some of the council estates. We must also remember that Labour's strength in Vesey ward is deceptive, as it's a result of a two decade long local campaign by Bob Pocock rather than a significant national shift to Labour.
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iang
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Post by iang on Jun 23, 2024 12:51:58 GMT
Jim Whorwood, who died last year, was one of the Liberal Sutton councillors, and later went on to be a Lib Dem councillor in Acocks Green on Birmingham "proper"
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 23, 2024 12:53:32 GMT
I do think that the demographics are slowly shifting in Labour's favour, as any such seat bordering a big, Labour voting city with a large minority would. But I don't think it's at the stage where the seat would go Labour just yet. Perhaps in a decade. Labour might well carry the area around the town centre and some of the council estates. We must also remember that Labour's strength in Vesey ward is deceptive, as it's a result of a two decade long local campaign by Bob Pocock rather than a significant national shift to Labour. ROB Pocock is indeed a fearsome campaigner but he is also the candidate in this election - so Labour should be well positioned to hit its potential vote, we shall see what that means in a few days time. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 23, 2024 13:46:10 GMT
I do think that the demographics are slowly shifting in Labour's favour, as any such seat bordering a big, Labour voting city with a large minority would. But I don't think it's at the stage where the seat would go Labour just yet. Perhaps in a decade. Labour might well carry the area around the town centre and some of the council estates. We must also remember that Labour's strength in Vesey ward is deceptive, as it's a result of a two decade long local campaign by Bob Pocock rather than a significant national shift to Labour. There is only 1 council estate here. The constituency is 554/575 for social housing tenants. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 23, 2024 14:23:55 GMT
I do think that the demographics are slowly shifting in Labour's favour, as any such seat bordering a big, Labour voting city with a large minority would. But I don't think it's at the stage where the seat would go Labour just yet. Perhaps in a decade. Labour might well carry the area around the town centre and some of the council estates. We must also remember that Labour's strength in Vesey ward is deceptive, as it's a result of a two decade long local campaign by Bob Pocock rather than a significant national shift to Labour. There is only 1 council estate here. The constituency is 554/575 for social housing tenants. Falcon Lodge, a post war build of about 1,600 houses originally, many of which have been RTBed since. I think much of the demographic moving to Sutton is sufficently well off that it is fairly open to the Tories in a normal year. |
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Post by rogerg on Jun 23, 2024 14:39:41 GMT
The Liberals did, IIRC, win two of the three wards in Sutton (New Hall and Vesey I think) in the first elections to the West Midlands county council. hullenedge will know more - I've sadly lost my copy of the book that gave some details of those results. The Libs did win two out of the three SC divisions but the Tories polled the most votes overall however a month later saw a clean sweep for the Conservatives (nine out of 9). I seem to recall there was a city council by-election in the old Vesey ward in around 1995 or 1996 which was fought properly by the Lib Dems and ended up a Conservative hold by something like 3,500 to 3,000. It blew my mind that someone could get 3,000 votes in a council by-election - and still lose! I think that might be the nearest to a Tory loss of a city council seat in Sutton Coldfield until Labour made their breakthrough also in Vesey. The Birmingham city wards were absolutely vast and I suspect their sheer size made working them with pavement politics very tough. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jun 23, 2024 15:31:37 GMT
Yes, I was involved in helping in that by-election, but (partly due to the size of the wards as you say), it wasn't really followed up, and the local party couldn't build on the momentum. Another factor in Tory strength here might be the lingering resentment at being part of Birmingham at all (perhaps especially in current circumstances) - a bit like some of the outerlying middle-class parts of London, that still think of themselves as Kent, Surrey etc
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 30, 2024 11:26:34 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 30, 2024 17:38:58 GMT
Yes, I was involved in helping in that by-election, but (partly due to the size of the wards as you say), it wasn't really followed up, and the local party couldn't build on the momentum. Another factor in Tory strength here might be the lingering resentment at being part of Birmingham at all (perhaps especially in current circumstances) - a bit like some of the outerlying middle-class parts of London, that still think of themselves as Kent, Surrey etc A good example might be Statten Island's attitude towards the rest of New York of which it does not feel a part. This makes it the one consistently reliable Republican voting area of the city. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 30, 2024 18:14:11 GMT
Yes, I was involved in helping in that by-election, but (partly due to the size of the wards as you say), it wasn't really followed up, and the local party couldn't build on the momentum. Another factor in Tory strength here might be the lingering resentment at being part of Birmingham at all (perhaps especially in current circumstances) - a bit like some of the outerlying middle-class parts of London, that still think of themselves as Kent, Surrey etc A good example might be Statten Island's attitude towards the rest of New York of which it does not feel a part. This makes it the one consistently reliable Republican voting area of the city. Looking at the geography, they're pissed off at being in New York State, let alone New York City. But their alternative is to be in New Jersey....
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