Rugby

[stb12]

Rugby

[John Chanin]

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[John Chanin]

www.rugby.gov.uk/w/general-election-2024-1

[The Bishop]

Jun 8, 2024 11:23:39 GMT John Chanin said:

www.rugby.gov.uk/w/general-election-2024-1

Main 5 plus 2 Independents.

[Sg1]

Earlier in the campaign, I had this as the most likely seat in Warwickshire to fall to Labour. I know the Conservative candidate. He was always one of the more active and experienced campaigners in Warwickshire and seems to be giving Labour a hard fight. The lib dem is also a local councillor with a strong following in his own division, which might limit the tactical voting in Labour's favour in his own area. I expect him to hold his deposit.

I think Labour are still favourites owing to their lead in the polls and house building in Rugby, which seems to be favouring them in areas like Admirals. It wouldn't shock me if the Conservatives clung on, and if they do, it'll likely be down to Bulkington, which has been reliably Conservative on a national level for some time, where the Labour party have upset locals over the Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Plan in recent years.

I predict:

Labour: 40.0
Con: 36.2
Reform: 12.3
Lib Dem: 6.3
Green: 4.0
Independent candidates: 1.2

[John Chanin]

Will be an easy Labour gain. I think your original feeling was right.

[Dan]

Jun 30, 2024 23:57:54 GMT Sg1 said:

The lib dem is also a local councillor with a strong following in his own division, which might limit the tactical voting in Labour's favour in his own area.

The Lib Dem candidate, Richard Dickson, is a district councillor for Kenilworth St John's ward, which is not in the Rugby parliamentary constituency, and so it's unlikely he'll have any particular name recognition amongst voters.