North Warwickshire and Bedworth

[stb12]

North Warwickshire and Bedworth

[John Chanin]

Link to profile

[carolus]

www.northwarks.gov.uk/downloads/file/1382/statement-of-persons-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-north-warwickshire-and-bedworth

5 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK

[Sg1]

The local elections in North Warwickshire last year and Bedworth this year point to a more mixed bag than Nuneaton and Rugby, which showed more straightforward swings to Labour. Craig Tracey will be helped by the cancellation of the north HS2 section, and I suspect that Kingsbury and the nearby villages will turn out for him.

I had this down as a Conservative hold with similar margins to 2015 until Nigel Farage took over Reform. This is a very Brexity seat and I expect Reform to achieve a strong third place and throw a spanner into the works for the Tories.

The Labour candidate is a North Warwickshire councillor and seems to have a strong following in Atherstone, at least judging by window posters. I don't think that Labour can rely on the commanding lead that they've historically needed in Bedworth to win the seat.

I'm going to predict a Conservative hold with similar margins to 2010. I think it's likely that the victor will have a majority in the triple figures in any case.

Con: 37.7
Lab: 37.6
Reform: 19.4
Lib Dem: 3.0
Green: 2.4

[John Chanin]

I agree that the Conservatives will do better here than in Nuneaton, despite results in the past being similar in both seats. Whether it will be enough to save the Conservatives here, given the state of the polls, is another matter.