Lichfield

[bsjmcr]

Jul 17, 2024 19:54:55 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 5, 2024 4:56:07 GMT Sg1 said:

Wow. I'm stunned by this result. I thought this would go the same way as Sutton Coldfield, Aldridge brownhills and the Solihull constituencies and be more resilient to the national swing. I know that Labour have a history of local government representation here, and that big chunks of this seat voted Labour in the past but still.

I do wonder if the good burghers of Lichfield may have concluded that Fabricant had outstayed his welcome in a way that people like the much more serious Andrew Mitchell had not and whether this was a bit of a personal rejection. After Johnson and Truss it appears there wasn't much patience at this election for clown-like politicians.

His fealty to Johnson probably didn't help.

I'd also wondered how Fabricant amassed such large majorities in Lichfield, a place as I understand it that has very few deprived areas at all, (happy to be corrected) and is that just by being a bit of a clown turning up at village halls (or pubs) and being charming. Not so many surgeries or casework meeting people at the brink of destitution or in awful housing, etc and no cost of living crisis... until now, I'd imagine people were probably very comfortable even in the 'austerity' era 2015-20, full of 'I'm alright Jack's' , then now everyone, the mortgage payers and Waitrose shoppers were hit in the pocket.

[swanarcadian]

I seem to recall Fabricant being lucky to hold on in 1997, and that the swing was below the national average. It may have been the effect of the Mid Staffordshire by-election wearing off.

[bsjmcr]

Jul 5, 2024 4:56:07 GMT Sg1 said:

Wow. I'm stunned by this result. I thought this would go the same way as Sutton Coldfield, Aldridge brownhills and the Solihull constituencies and be more resilient to the national swing. I know that Labour have a history of local government representation here, and that big chunks of this seat voted Labour in the past but still.

Staffordshire Moorlands just up the road from here, one of the handful of 1997 Labour seats that didn't switch this time.

[Rural Radical]

Jul 17, 2024 20:24:59 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jul 5, 2024 4:56:07 GMT Sg1 said:

Wow. I'm stunned by this result. I thought this would go the same way as Sutton Coldfield, Aldridge brownhills and the Solihull constituencies and be more resilient to the national swing. I know that Labour have a history of local government representation here, and that big chunks of this seat voted Labour in the past but still.

Staffordshire Moorlands just up the road from here, one of the handful of 1997 Labour seats that didn't switch this time.

I thought that Moorlands would go Labour before Lichfield.

[batman]

Jul 17, 2024 20:22:59 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jul 17, 2024 19:54:55 GMT heslingtonian said:

I do wonder if the good burghers of Lichfield may have concluded that Fabricant had outstayed his welcome in a way that people like the much more serious Andrew Mitchell had not and whether this was a bit of a personal rejection. After Johnson and Truss it appears there wasn't much patience at this election for clown-like politicians.

His fealty to Johnson probably didn't help.

I'd also wondered how Fabricant amassed such large majorities in Lichfield, a place as I understand it that has very few deprived areas at all, (happy to be corrected) and is that just by being a bit of a clown turning up at village halls (or pubs) and being charming. Not so many surgeries or casework meeting people at the brink of destitution or in awful housing, etc and no cost of living crisis... until now, I'd imagine people were probably very comfortable even in the 'austerity' era 2015-20, full of 'I'm alright Jack's' , then now everyone, the mortgage payers and Waitrose shoppers were hit in the pocket.

I'm pretty sure that this constituency still includes Burntwood. This unlike Lichfield is an ex-mining town, and isn't all that much smaller than the small city of Lichfield itself. This election has generally, though not invariably, seen particularly large swings in ex-mining areas, especially those which have not gone upmarket as for example Rother Valley appears to have done. Lichfield itself is comfortable rather than wealthy for the most part but does have some areas of relative deprivation. 

[YL]

Jul 17, 2024 20:35:19 GMT batman said:

Jul 17, 2024 20:22:59 GMT bsjmcr said:

His fealty to Johnson probably didn't help.

I'd also wondered how Fabricant amassed such large majorities in Lichfield, a place as I understand it that has very few deprived areas at all, (happy to be corrected) and is that just by being a bit of a clown turning up at village halls (or pubs) and being charming. Not so many surgeries or casework meeting people at the brink of destitution or in awful housing, etc and no cost of living crisis... until now, I'd imagine people were probably very comfortable even in the 'austerity' era 2015-20, full of 'I'm alright Jack's' , then now everyone, the mortgage payers and Waitrose shoppers were hit in the pocket.

I'm pretty sure that this constituency still includes Burntwood. This unlike Lichfield is an ex-mining town, and isn't all that much smaller than the small city of Lichfield itself. This election has generally, though not invariably, seen particularly large swings in ex-mining areas, especially those which have not gone upmarket as for example Rother Valley appears to have done. Lichfield itself is comfortable rather than wealthy for the most part but does have some areas of relative deprivation. 

The most deprived LSOAs in the constituency are actually in Lichfield (two in the second decile in the IMD, both in the north of the built up area) not Burntwood.

[John Chanin]

As is often the case the profile explains in more detail the demography and sources of support. Lichfield itself is very split, and Burntwood has a long Labour tradition. Like many seats it was the rural component that kept it Conservative. It is not at all surprising that Labour won the seat this time. What was surprising is that they didn't win it in 1997.

For those that like their history the Lichfield & Tamworth seat was Labour back in the 1960s.

[batman]

Indeed it was also won by Bruce Grocott (Lab), later Blair’s PPS, in October 1974.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 18, 2024 3:18:33 GMT John Chanin said:

As is often the case the profile explains in more detail the demography and sources of support. Lichfield itself is very split, and Burntwood has a long Labour tradition. Like many seats it was the rural component that kept it Conservative. It is not at all surprising that Labour won the seat this time. What was surprising is that they didn't win it in 1997.

For those that like their history the Lichfield & Tamworth seat was Labour back in the 1960s.

OK Graham

[aargauer]

Jul 18, 2024 3:18:33 GMT John Chanin said:

As is often the case the profile explains in more detail the demography and sources of support. Lichfield itself is very split, and Burntwood has a long Labour tradition. Like many seats it was the rural component that kept it Conservative. It is not at all surprising that Labour won the seat this time. What was surprising is that they didn't win it in 1997.

For those that like their history the Lichfield & Tamworth seat was Labour back in the 1960s.

FWIW I think Lichfield itself probably votes pretty similarly to the seat at large, and would be Tory in even a really pretty bad year (possibly even this time around). 

Pete Whitehead - do you have a breakdown of the Lichfield proper wards?

I was actually more surprised that Labour won Tamworth than here - the latter has a very right wing feel these days (and indeed the right got well over 50% of the vote). Both would be held in a 1997 situation. I will try and work in one of the these two at the next GE unless it looks like straightforward gains (in which case probably Hexham).

[batman]

Labour won a very clear majority in the borough of Tamworth in the recent local elections, so I don't see the result there as surprising, indeed I'd have been very surprised if the Tories could have won it particularly as there was a Labour incumbent from the by-election.

[aargauer]

Jul 18, 2024 9:10:54 GMT batman said:

Labour won a very clear majority in the borough of Tamworth in the recent local elections, so I don't see the result there as surprising, indeed I'd have been very surprised if the Tories could have won it particularly as there was a Labour incumbent from the by-election.

But Tamworth BC is both homogenous and very tightly drawn. Built up urban Tamworth, including some of the nicer bits, now extends into Lichfield - its possible for Labour to win them all Tamworth wards narrowly, and get absolutely stomped in the Lichfield council wards in Tamworth constituency by huge margins, which are very conservative (except my home turf - Mease Valley ward at local elections which is marginal with the lib dems - but would be very safe in a general election). 

Its really only the very even split between Con and Reform that allowed labour to win. Its basically the reverse Chingford.

[The Bishop]

We were told that Eddie Hughes was well liked, however - and he certainly seemed popular enough in nearby Walsall. If so, an "identikit" Tory candidate might well have done worse - and that makes Labour's win still more creditable in the circumstances.

[batman]

Jul 18, 2024 9:21:11 GMT aargauer said:

Jul 18, 2024 9:10:54 GMT batman said:

Labour won a very clear majority in the borough of Tamworth in the recent local elections, so I don't see the result there as surprising, indeed I'd have been very surprised if the Tories could have won it particularly as there was a Labour incumbent from the by-election.

But Tamworth BC is both homogenous and very tightly drawn. Built up urban Tamworth, including some of the nicer bits, now extends into Lichfield - its possible for Labour to win them all Tamworth wards narrowly, and get absolutely stomped in the Lichfield council wards in Tamworth constituency by huge margins, which are very conservative (except my home turf - Mease Valley ward at local elections which is marginal with the lib dems - but would be very safe in a general election). 

Its really only the very even split between Con and Reform that allowed labour to win. Its basically the reverse Chingford.

that's true, and always has been since the reestablishment of a Tamworth constituency in 1997. The Lichfield council wards are very heavily Tory indeed, and Labour has to win pretty big in the borough of Tamworth to take the seat. But in the end the Lichfield wards are very much the minority of the population and there will be times when they're not enough to tip the balance, in the case of 2005 in non-landslide conditions.

[Rural Radical]

Jul 18, 2024 3:18:33 GMT John Chanin said:

As is often the case the profile explains in more detail the demography and sources of support. Lichfield itself is very split, and Burntwood has a long Labour tradition. Like many seats it was the rural component that kept it Conservative. It is not at all surprising that Labour won the seat this time. What was surprising is that they didn't win it in 1997.

For those that like their history the Lichfield & Tamworth seat was Labour back in the 1960s.

It was Labour in the late ‘70s as well

[batman]

Only from October 1974 to 1979. 

[hullenedge]

Jul 18, 2024 18:54:54 GMT batman said:

Only from October 1974 to 1979. In fact the seat was called simply Lichfield before 1974, even though it did include Tamworth.

L&T from 1950. One of few seats with a swing (albeit tiny) to the Tories in 1966. Liberal withdrawal? Increased home ownership?

[batman]

Apologies, I was mistaken about that detail & will delete that particular reference.

[swanarcadian]

It looks like Michael Fabricant has ruled out standing for Parliament again.

[LDCaerdydd]

He'll likely be a few weeks short of 79 at the next election so hardy a surprise.