stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:52:46 GMT
Aldridge-Brownhills
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 15, 2024 12:35:36 GMT
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 21, 2024 11:01:29 GMT
Time for a few predictions - I'm going to really stick my neck out on this one and call it as a CONSERVATIVE HOLD, on a less than average swing. It is quite noticeable just how Tory leaning this seat is, but given the demographics: older leaning age, high home ownership, largely white and middle income. Reform's performance may have some impact but Wendy Morton should be just about Brexity enough to negate this risk. If the Tories lose here then they may as well give up.
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2024 11:32:27 GMT
that's not really sticking your neck out. If the Tories were really down to 36 seats, which they won't be, this would be one of them. This seat has changed enormously in all sorts of ways since Labour won it in 1974. It could theoretically be the only Tory seat in the West Midlands ceremonial county but I think even if they do disastrously they will at least hold Meriden & Solihull E, and Sutton Coldfield as well.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 21, 2024 12:23:54 GMT
that's not really sticking your neck out. If the Tories were really down to 36 seats, which they won't be, this would be one of them. This seat has changed enormously in all sorts of ways since Labour won it in 1974. It could theoretically be the only Tory seat in the West Midlands ceremonial county but I think even if they do disastrously they will at least hold Meriden & Solihull E, and Sutton Coldfield as well. It was one of a handful of seats the Tories got 70% or more of the vote last time out. If they lose any of them (although not disregarding boundary changes that may have a heavy impact in any of these seats) then we really must be looking at extinction level losses |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Mar 21, 2024 12:34:00 GMT
that's not really sticking your neck out. If the Tories were really down to 36 seats, which they won't be, this would be one of them. This seat has changed enormously in all sorts of ways since Labour won it in 1974. It could theoretically be the only Tory seat in the West Midlands ceremonial county but I think even if they do disastrously they will at least hold Meriden & Solihull E, and Sutton Coldfield as well. I think the complete meltdown scenario can’t be ruled out at the moment, but yes, this is one of the seats they might hold even in that scenario. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Mar 23, 2024 21:32:18 GMT
Labour failed to win back the seat in 1997 despite having held it at both 1974 elections. Was Richard Shepherd's personal vote a significant factor in preventing that - or were boundary changes more important?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 24, 2024 0:11:34 GMT
There were boundary changes, there had been demographic changes, but mostly it was just a huge upset that Labour won the constituency in 1974 in the first place. Had the constituency existed in 1966, for instance, it would not have been won by Labour.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Mar 24, 2024 8:04:01 GMT
The Conservatives won every ward in the constituency in the May 2023 locals, so that doesn't suggest Wendy Morton is under threat
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Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 8:31:07 GMT
Labour failed to win back the seat in 1997 despite having held it at both 1974 elections. Was Richard Shepherd's personal vote a significant factor in preventing that - or were boundary changes more important? basically whole prosperous neighbourhoods have been built since Geoff Edge won in 1974 for Labour. Some of the very safest Tory areas like Streetly barely existed in 1974, or were far smaller than they are now. Boundary changes up to now haven't been much of thing here, the reason for the Tories' success has been a ) considerable strengthening in areas where Labour once had strength and b ) very major & almost totally owner-occupied & well-to-do residential development. There was a time when Brownhills was quite strong Labour territory, but it's weakened over time until it is now regularly lost. While many former mining areas have bounced back strongly to Labour since 2020, this one just hasn't. Not that Labour will mind all that much, this being such a safe Tory seat these days. This has a claim to be the only seat that Labour won in 1974 & never before or since, depending on what you take as linear predecessors or successors. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 24, 2024 10:16:22 GMT
Labour failed to win back the seat in 1997 despite having held it at both 1974 elections. Was Richard Shepherd's personal vote a significant factor in preventing that - or were boundary changes more important? Yes, since the swing against him in 1997 was only 8.4%. An average swing would have flipped the seat to Labour. Furthermore when Sir Richard retired in 2015 the Conservative vote share dropped 7%. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 11:56:54 GMT
This seat also saw an absolutely humungous swing to the Tories in 2010, it was surely amongst one of the biggest in the country.
Since then it has been mega-safe in every election. Even if that is slightly less the case this time, they would almost certainly still win it even in a 1931-type scenario.
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Post by rogerg on Mar 24, 2024 12:39:09 GMT
Labour failed to win back the seat in 1997 despite having held it at both 1974 elections. Was Richard Shepherd's personal vote a significant factor in preventing that - or were boundary changes more important? basically whole prosperous neighbourhoods have been built since Geoff Edge won in 1974 for Labour. Some of the very safest Tory areas like Streetly barely existed in 1974, or were far smaller than they are now. Boundary changes up to now haven't been much of thing here, the reason for the Tories' success has been a ) considerable strengthening in areas where Labour once had strength and b ) very major & almost totally owner-occupied & well-to-do residential development. There was a time when Brownhills was quite strong Labour territory, but it's weakened over time until it is now regularly lost. While many former mining areas have bounced back strongly to Labour since 2020, this one just hasn't. Not that Labour will mind all that much, this being such a safe Tory seat these days. This has a claim to be the only seat that Labour won in 1974 & never before or since, depending on what you take as linear predecessors or successors. Streetly was built out well before 1974, as was the housing expanding Aldridge itself. The electorate is no higher now than it was in 1974. It's certainly true that what new housing there has been in the last decades has been upscale (for this area) but there has not been that much of it. Richard Shepherd was popular and fitted the seat well but I don't know that he had a particularly strong personal vote, or needed one since the the seat was naturally trending Tory. The southern two thirds of the seat is classic "white flight" territory and I suspect a lot of the story is historically Labour voting households moving here from inner Birmingham and drabber parts of Walsall in the 1960s to 1980s as part of their transition to habitually voting Tory, that properly came with Thatcher. In the early days of Walsall Met the Aldridge and Streetly areas elected Ratepayer councillors. It was not until the 1980s that the Conservatives were strong enough to be able to push them out. This is just an area that over the last decades has aligned to typify a place that votes Tory (much as Streatham where I was until recently has aligned to typify the kind of place that votes Labour). We lived in a small semi in Aldridge that dated to 1970. When I was there from the 1970s to 1990s it was very much an area for working people who had done well "in trade" rather than in "professions". Very much Birmingham's Essex rather than Birmingham's Surrey. The northern part at Brownhills might technically be a former mining area but I don't think there was much of that culture by the 1970s, less so than in Cannock certainly. I had always understood the thinking to be that the seat was expected to be marginal in its first outing in 1974. |
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Post by Strontium Dog on May 29, 2024 18:29:56 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 29, 2024 18:40:01 GMT
The thing with due diligence in that case is that the Green Party is not going to have the resources to go through the social media of all their candidates, and presumably casual anti-Semitism only pops up if you're in the habit of having anti-Semitic chats. But I find it hard to believe that anyone who could spout nonsense like that doesn't say something pretty stupid on a regular basis. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on May 29, 2024 18:48:28 GMT
The thing with due diligence in that case is that the Green Party is not going to have the resources to go through the social media of all their candidates, and presumably casual anti-Semitism only pops up if you're in the habit of having anti-Semitic chats. But I find it hard to believe that anyone who could spout nonsense like that doesn't say something pretty stupid on a regular basis. It's about Israel. I loathe the Israeli state. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 29, 2024 18:59:05 GMT
The thing with due diligence in that case is that the Green Party is not going to have the resources to go through the social media of all their candidates, and presumably casual anti-Semitism only pops up if you're in the habit of having anti-Semitic chats. But I find it hard to believe that anyone who could spout nonsense like that doesn't say something pretty stupid on a regular basis. It's about Israel. I loathe the Israeli state. Yes, we know, you have mentioned it about 40,000 times already. There is no need to repeat it in every time Israel, antisemitism, etc gets mentioned in a thread. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on May 29, 2024 19:45:38 GMT
basically whole prosperous neighbourhoods have been built since Geoff Edge won in 1974 for Labour. I liked Geoff Edge. I came across a lot of his material on Economic Geography that was produced when he worked for the Open University. I met him at a NOLS event when he made a comment about ‘the only time Leon Trotsky’ had an open mind! |
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Post by batman on May 29, 2024 20:09:17 GMT
For me his association with Bono lessens his quality
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 29, 2024 20:15:55 GMT
Nutters. Everybody knows the best route for a canal is the Afula valley:  |
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