stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:51:17 GMT
Weston-super-Mare
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,175
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Post by r34t on Mar 16, 2024 9:00:48 GMT
Labour have selected Dan Aldridge, head of policy at British Computer Society. From WSM which explains a very clear win in the selection, ahead of an ex-MEP
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on May 28, 2024 19:30:39 GMT
I reckon this could be a shockingly clear cut victory for Labour
Labour - 44%
Conservative - 36%
Liberal Democrat - 9%
Reform - 8%
Green - 3%
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 28, 2024 21:23:34 GMT
Yeah Labour a paltry 3/10 to win here.
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 15:55:41 GMT
SOPNDan Aldridge (Lab) Thomas Daw (Grn) Patrick Keating (LD) Richard Pearse (Ref) John Penrose (Con)
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 7, 2024 15:58:01 GMT
My old constituency. I think it'll be a three way between Reform, Lab and Cons. LDs will probably get a few and Green candidate won't do well.
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 17:09:23 GMT
Why not:
Lab 31.1%
Ref 27.7% (I believe this is a target for them, and I see this as a referendum on the council. Could nick it)
Cons 25.9%
LD 11.4%
Grn 3.9%
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Post by batman on Jun 9, 2024 19:33:59 GMT
I really don't see Reform coming close to winning this seat. I know you're infinitely more local than I am, but I think you are wrong about this.
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jun 9, 2024 21:36:19 GMT
Dan Aldridge is an incredibly strong candidate. Reform are certainly not going to win or come close here (UKIP were no where near) however they will definitely sink the tories. I'd now consider this a very likely Labour gain in the general election. |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jun 9, 2024 21:37:45 GMT
Labour - 43%
Conservative - 30%
Reform - 18%
Liberal Democrat - 7%
Green - 2%
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Post by froome on Jun 10, 2024 5:28:02 GMT
Labour - 43% Conservative - 30% Reform - 18% Liberal Democrat - 7% Green - 2% This looks a pretty good prediction on current polling. This is probably Labour's best chance to win a constituency in the old county of Somerset, though in the current situation they obviously have a fair chance of winning others as well. I would expect Reform to do better here than in North Somerset. 2% for us would be very disappointing, as much of our vote will be in the villages where Labour are unlikely to poll very well. It feels almost like ancient history remembering that the constituency based on this town had a Lib Dem MP not that long ago! |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jul 7, 2024 15:05:17 GMT
Labour - 43% Conservative - 30% Reform - 18% Liberal Democrat - 7% Green - 2% Well the margin was the average of your two predictions, so well done. |
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Post by batman on Jul 24, 2024 8:08:40 GMT
the Tories had an absolute mare here.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 24, 2024 8:17:44 GMT
the Tories had an absolute mare here. They jockeyed for position but fell at the final fence in this two-horse race. But it was a bumpers year for Labour, who did well in many a Newmarket for them. But is this only a short-term win or the real AP McCoy? The electorate were not well turned-out. |
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Post by batman on Jul 24, 2024 8:20:14 GMT
we didn't have to wait fur long for a reply
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Post by froome on Jul 24, 2024 8:51:16 GMT
The nearest Weston gets to horse racing is the beach, where the donkeys don't exactly gallop, more plod around at a very, very slow pace.
Fortunately it is a Flat Holm straight for them.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 25, 2024 1:05:37 GMT
The nearest Weston gets to horse racing is the beach, where the donkeys don't exactly gallop, more plod around at a very, very slow pace. Fortunately it is a Flat Holm straight for them. That's part of Cardiff. The going is steeper on the English side of the Bristol Channel. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Jul 25, 2024 1:13:59 GMT
the Tories had an absolute mare here. Super! |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
Member is Online
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 26, 2024 10:56:59 GMT
the Tories had an absolute mare here. I wonder how many people knew that John Penrose is married to ‘the TalkTalk Baroness’ who made a mess over test and trace and voted accordingly? The pandemic may be a distant memory but people do remember these things. |
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Post by batman on Jul 26, 2024 11:04:18 GMT
It is well-known & is presumably even better-known in his own constituency.
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