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Post by tonyhil on Jun 29, 2024 19:58:37 GMT
'knocked on 23,000 doors...' I'd take that with a pinch of salt. It might be possible if you took a year working full time.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 29, 2024 20:02:08 GMT
I would agree with that. I think Tessa Munt may well win, I think if James Heappey had stood again he would have been the favourite.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 30, 2024 9:54:14 GMT
'knocked on 23,000 doors...' I'd take that with a pinch of salt. It might be possible if you took a year working full time.
Easy to knock on 23,000 doors quite quickly if you don't wait around for anyone to answer your knock.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,740
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Post by mboy on Jun 30, 2024 10:48:55 GMT
It's possible to knock on 100 doors in an evening canvassing session when 75% aren't in to talk to. It would be plausible to knock on 23,000 doors in, say, 4 months of campaigning of 2x sessions per day, with many doors "out".
It will be annoying if she takes votes from Tessa though.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 30, 2024 10:52:54 GMT
It's possible to knock on 100 doors in an evening canvassing session when 75% aren't in to talk to. It would be plausible to knock on 23,000 doors in, say, 4 months of campaigning of 2x sessions per day, with many doors "out". It will be annoying if she takes votes from Tessa though. My mate who is canvassing regularly in Chipping Barnet, reports that the 'not ins' are generally 'not in' the next time either.
Of course this could be because they know there's an election on.  |
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Post by froome on Jun 30, 2024 10:58:03 GMT
It's possible to knock on 100 doors in an evening canvassing session when 75% aren't in to talk to. It would be plausible to knock on 23,000 doors in, say, 4 months of campaigning of 2x sessions per day, with many doors "out". It will be annoying if she takes votes from Tessa though. My mate who is canvassing regularly in Chipping Barnet, reports that the 'not ins' are generally 'not in' the next time either.
Of course this could be because they know there's an election on. I reckon on about 40% of households will never answer a door to someone they think might be an election canvasser. They will either be 'not in' (even if they are) or occasionally will stare at you (or worse) through the front window until you leave. After about 3 visits, you know which houses these are. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,780 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 30, 2024 11:47:42 GMT
My mate who is canvassing regularly in Chipping Barnet, reports that the 'not ins' are generally 'not in' the next time either.
Of course this could be because they know there's an election on. I reckon on about 40% of households will never answer a door to someone they think might be an election canvasser. They will either be 'not in' (even if they are) or occasionally will stare at you (or worse) through the front window until you leave. After about 3 visits, you know which houses these are. And your campaign manager will insist that you filter to target canvassing these households. "because we've got no data on them". |
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jul 5, 2024 8:22:58 GMT
An 11k majority! I salute November_Rain whose prediction was much closer to the actual result than mine. I just did not expect such a massive swing to the Lib Dems, nor that the Labour vote would fall. I guess a strong local candidate and tactical messaging really did have a big impact here |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,016
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 5, 2024 19:19:15 GMT
An 11k majority! I salute November_Rain whose prediction was much closer to the actual result than mine. I just did not expect such a massive swing to the Lib Dems, nor that the Labour vote would fall. I guess a strong local candidate and tactical messaging really did have a big impact here Never underestimate Tessa Munt. She's a formidable campaigner. |
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