stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:50:17 GMT
Wells and Mendip Hills
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Mar 15, 2024 11:20:47 GMT
James Heappey standing down.
Not sure if Tessa Munt is having another crack at this new seat - she'll surely fancy her chances this time - although the new boundaries will make it slightly harder than the previous Wells seat.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 15, 2024 11:27:58 GMT
James Heappey standing down. Not sure if Tessa Munt is having another crack at this new seat - she'll surely fancy her chances this time - although the new boundaries will make it slightly harder than the previous Wells seat. She is standing again, perhaps slightly surprisingly given her age, and James Heappey not standing will help her. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Apr 7, 2024 8:35:40 GMT
James Heappey standing down. Not sure if Tessa Munt is having another crack at this new seat - she'll surely fancy her chances this time - although the new boundaries will make it slightly harder than the previous Wells seat. She is standing again, perhaps slightly surprisingly given her age, and James Heappey not standing will help her. The Glastonbury guy is getting on a bit, otherwise I was wondering if he stood again, it would almost certainly scupper the LD’s chances again just like in 1997. |
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Post by batman on Apr 7, 2024 8:41:56 GMT
He's more than getting on a bit, he's pretty elderly & infirm. Whether Emily wants a crack, if she is Labour too & a Party member, I don't know though I doubt it.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 7, 2024 8:43:56 GMT
She is standing again, perhaps slightly surprisingly given her age, and James Heappey not standing will help her. The Glastonbury guy is getting on a bit, otherwise I was wondering if he stood again, it would almost certainly scupper the LD’s chances again just like in 1997. He’s 88, so pretty unlikely. He does have several children who would have a bit of name recognition if they were interested in following in the same path |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 7, 2024 10:09:28 GMT
She is standing again, perhaps slightly surprisingly given her age, and James Heappey not standing will help her. The Glastonbury guy is getting on a bit, otherwise I was wondering if he stood again, it would almost certainly scupper the LD’s chances again just like in 1997. I had to look up the result for Wells in 1997 in order to find out who you meant by “the Glastonbury guy”; the Labour candidate Michael Eavis who was born in 1935. But he increased the Labour vote from 10% to 18%, with a swing directly from the Conservative Party (bypassing the Lib Dems). In other words, a fairly normal average (ish) result for what happened in 1997. Is there any particular significance in the fact that he had connections with Glastonbury? Does that make people suddenly want to rush to support Labour? |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 7, 2024 14:49:45 GMT
The Glastonbury guy is getting on a bit, otherwise I was wondering if he stood again, it would almost certainly scupper the LD’s chances again just like in 1997. I had to look up the result for Wells in 1997 in order to find out who you meant by “the Glastonbury guy”; the Labour candidate Michael Eavis who was born in 1935. But he increased the Labour vote from 10% to 18%, with a swing directly from the Conservative Party (bypassing the Lib Dems). In other words, a fairly normal average (ish) result for what happened in 1997. Is there any particular significance in the fact that he had connections with Glastonbury? Does that make people suddenly want to rush to support Labour? It was clearly a personal vote looking at results for the Wells constituency in which Michael Eavis was not a candidate. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Apr 7, 2024 16:47:43 GMT
It’s often forgotten that in 1997 Michael Eavis’ brother was the Lib Dem agent.
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Ports
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Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Apr 8, 2024 11:25:14 GMT
Despite the name of the new Glastonbury and Somerton seat, Worthy Farm is still in this seat.
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Post by willpower3 on May 24, 2024 15:13:08 GMT
The return of the delightful Tessa Munt?
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Post by Antiochian on May 24, 2024 19:54:58 GMT
The return of the delightful Tessa Munt? How dare the LibDems put up anyone the constituents might find amenable! Where is the Sarah Olney clone factory when they need it?? |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 7, 2024 19:02:49 GMT
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 19:54:10 GMT
Craig Clarke (Ind)
Helen Hims (Ref)
Joe Joseph (Lab Co-Op)
Abi McGuire (Ind)
Tessa Munt (LD)
Meg Powell-Chandler (Con)
Peter Welsh (Grn)
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 7, 2024 20:01:02 GMT
And. When Christ was in Priddy...
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 7, 2024 23:09:36 GMT
Helen Hims stood for UKIP in a previous incarnation of this seat.
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 17:15:51 GMT
LD 40.1%
Con 22.1%
Ref 16.6%
Lab 11.5%
Ind (Abi McGuire) 5.2%
Grn 3.4%
Ind (Craig Clarke) 1.1%
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 9, 2024 22:06:23 GMT
LD 40.1% Con 22.1% Ref 16.6% Lab 11.5% Ind (Abi McGuire) 5.2% Grn 3.4% Ind (Craig Clarke) 1.1% Too optimistic for the Lib Dems. Although they have a strong candidate they aren't gaining much in national polls, and despite the tactical squeeze the Labour vote will probably rise a bit here Notionals here are C 56% LD 31% Lab 11% I would suggest the state of the race is more like LD 35% C 30% Ref 15% Lab 14% Grn 3% Inds 3% |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 29, 2024 18:44:21 GMT
Cameron here stumping for the Tories, Uncle Vince for the LD's.
Munt's social media is emphasising the "very close" message.
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 29, 2024 19:31:33 GMT
So far I've had 3 leaflets and an addressed postal voters letter from the Lib Dems
I've had 2 leaflets and an addressed PV letter from the Conservatives
Freeposts from Lib Dems, Cons, Reform, Green and Independent Abi McGuire
Nothing at all received from Labour
Independent Abi McGuire knocked on my door a few months ago but I was out
I have voted by post for Tessa Munt
Overall I think Tessa Munt is a slight favourite, but no more than that
The Lib Dems haven't gained much in national polling, however Tessa Munt is very well liked, and the quiet Labour and Greens campaigns here will make the Lib Dems' tactical message more effective
For the Conservatives an unknown special advisor who lives in London was a poor choice, though of course a sizable percentage of the electorate pays little attention to who the local candidates are
The boundary changes were not favourable to the Lib Dems, they've lost Glastonbury, Street and Burnham, some of their stronger areas of support, and gained some Polden and Mendip villages which would normally be very Tory
However I think Yatton, Winscombe, Churchill and Blagdon are places where the Lib Dems could do well in the present climate if they work them hard, and Tessa Munt's son is a councillor for the Polden villages so no doubt the name is well known there now
The Independent Abi McGuire has run a very professional campaign, knocked on 23,000 doors and has a lot of poster boards up, she'll likely get her deposit back at least
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