stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379 
|
Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:48:57 GMT
Tiverton and Minehead
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jun 7, 2024 19:04:03 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 19:57:35 GMT
Jonathan Barter (Lab)
Laura Buchanan (Grn)
Rachel Gilmour (LD)
Fred Keen (Ref)
Ian Liddell-Grainger (Con)
|
|
|
|
Post by WestCountryRadical on Jul 5, 2024 8:28:34 GMT
Soz, I had forgotten about Liddell-Grainger's quasi chicken run  Far from impossible, although not the most likely outcome, is that he loses to the LDs whilst the Conservatives hold Bridgwater.  |
|
Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
|
Post by Ports on Jul 5, 2024 16:30:13 GMT
In some ways given the narrative of the election it was silly not to consider Ian Liddell-Grainger a big factor, and simply revert to 'this is harder than others in Somerset' - it absolutely makes sense that a less popular incumbent might accentuate the existing myriad frustrations with his party.
|
|
|
|
Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jul 5, 2024 17:04:59 GMT
Yes delighted he has gone. The strange aspect of this is that if he had decided to remain with the other portion of his former constituency he might have remained in parliament. To continue not doing what he had not done for the last 21 years.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,907
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Jul 8, 2024 7:44:54 GMT
Tiverton & Honiton was split into two, in both cases combined with bits of a neighbouring constituency: Bridgwater & West Somerset for this one, and East Devon for Honiton & Sidmouth. Both Simon Jupp and Ian Liddell-Grainger claimed the new constituency which contained part of Tiverton & Honiton. In both cases they lost to the Lib Dems, while the Tories held the other seat they would have had a claim on.
|
|
|
|
Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jul 8, 2024 9:09:04 GMT
Tiverton & Honiton was split into two, in both cases combined with bits of a neighbouring constituency: Bridgwater & West Somerset for this one, and East Devon for Honiton & Sidmouth. Both Simon Jupp and Ian Liddell-Grainger claimed the new constituency which contained part of Tiverton & Honiton. In both cases they lost to the Lib Dems, while the Tories held the other seat they would have had a claim on. Were they selected before or after the by-election, do you know? Would seem an eccentric decision if afterwards - although by-elections in the past have quite often gone back to the former party (although not this time as it was such a bad Tory result) they rarely go right back to the previous position as quite a bit of work has been done by the winning party. I don't think Simon Jupp would've won Exmouth had he been candidate. The Tory candidate (now MP) was quite a strong one in that he's an ex-Royal Marine in the seat which is home to their principal commando training base. Jupp wasn't particularly rated (as his pretty heavy loss next door indicates). I'd not overplay the importance of candidate, but it was only 100 or so votes in it in Exmouth, so a weaker candidate probably wouldn't have survived. Idle-Stranger may well have hung on in Bridgwater. Ashley Fox is a stronger candidate, but not overwhelmingly so, and the majority was around 1,300 so candidate strength probably wouldn't have swung it. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 22:20:27 GMT
Tiverton & Honiton was split into two, in both cases combined with bits of a neighbouring constituency: Bridgwater & West Somerset for this one, and East Devon for Honiton & Sidmouth. Both Simon Jupp and Ian Liddell-Grainger claimed the new constituency which contained part of Tiverton & Honiton. In both cases they lost to the Lib Dems, while the Tories held the other seat they would have had a claim on. Were they selected before or after the by-election, do you know? IIRC selections took place when the Boundary Review was at an advanced stage, so following the June 2022 by-election. I think sitting MPs whose seats were undergoing significant changes had to make a decision in early 2023, with formal selections taking place a few months later. Liddell-Grainger probably just looked at the map and saw a more rural and naturally conservative constituency, forgetting that in T & M the tactical anti-Tory choice would clearly be the LDs, whereas in the redrawn Bridgwater there would be mixed messages from potential opponents. Failure to spot what the smart strategy would be demonstrates his poor political instincts. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 9, 2024 6:55:00 GMT
Were they selected before or after the by-election, do you know? IIRC selections took place when the Boundary Review was at an advanced stage, so following the June 2022 by-election. I think sitting MPs whose seats were undergoing significant changes had to make a decision in early 2023, with formal selections taking place a few months later. Liddell-Grainger probably just looked at the map and saw a more rural and naturally conservative constituency, forgetting that in T & M the tactical anti-Tory choice would clearly be the LDs, whereas in the redrawn Bridgwater there would be mixed messages from potential opponents. Failure to spot what the smart strategy would be demonstrates his poor political instincts. Liddell-Grainger lives in Tiverton and Minehead, so it was the more obvious choice for him. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 9, 2024 12:50:23 GMT
Just going back to the choice of seats and Ian Liddell-Grainger , it’s perhaps worth noting that both he and Simon Jupp who had a similar choice and also lost, both got a higher share of the vote in the seat that they lost - ( Tiverton & Minehead and Honiton & Sidmouth respectively ) than the winning Con candidate got in the other seat ( Exmouth & Exeter E and Bridgwater).
|
|
|
|
Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jul 9, 2024 16:43:34 GMT
Just going back to the choice of seats and Ian Liddell-Grainger , it’s perhaps worth noting that both he and Simon Jupp who had a similar choice and also lost, both got a higher share of the vote in the seat that they lost - ( Tiverton & Minehead and Honiton & Sidmouth respectively ) than the winning Con candidate got in the other seat ( Exmouth & Exeter E and Bridgwater). I suppose we're slightly assuming Liddell-Grainger and Jupp "chose" their respective seats this time in the sense that they could have had the other if they'd wanted it. Ashley Fox is a former MEP and pretty prominent figure in that area and David Reed is an ex-Royal Marine and always quite a strong choice for the seat that includes Lympstone Commando Base. It isn't obvious the sitting MP would've won those selections, and they may have been aware of that. You're right both got a higher vote than the Tory winners of the other halves of their respective seats, but that means very little. The by-election meant both bits of the old Tiverton & Honiton seat were very firmly cast as blue/gold contests, so inevitably the two party share was pretty high. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 9, 2024 18:53:13 GMT
Just going back to the choice of seats and Ian Liddell-Grainger , it’s perhaps worth noting that both he and Simon Jupp who had a similar choice and also lost, both got a higher share of the vote in the seat that they lost - ( Tiverton & Minehead and Honiton & Sidmouth respectively ) than the winning Con candidate got in the other seat ( Exmouth & Exeter E and Bridgwater). I suppose we're slightly assuming Liddell-Grainger and Jupp "chose" their respective seats this time in the sense that they could have had the other if they'd wanted it. Ashley Fox is a former MEP and pretty prominent figure in that area and David Reed is an ex-Royal Marine and always quite a strong choice for the seat that includes Lympstone Commando Base. It isn't obvious the sitting MP would've won those selections, and they may have been aware of that. You're right both got a higher vote than the Tory winners of the other halves of their respective seats, but that means very little. The by-election meant both bits of the old Tiverton & Honiton seat were very firmly cast as blue/gold contests, so inevitably the two party share was pretty high. Agreed except for I think it’s a stretch to say Ashley Fox is pretty prominent. Despite being an MEP, I bet you’d have struggled to find 200 people in Bridgwater constituency who are not members of the Conservative Party who had heard of him before Thursday, |
|
