South East Cornwall

[stb12]

South East Cornwall

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Martin Corney (Grn)
Graham Cowdry (Heritage)
Anna Gelderd (Lab)
Colin Martin (LD)
Sheryll Murray (Con)
Paul Wadley (Ref)

[heslingtonian]

The only Conservative seat left in Cornwall perhaps?

[batman]

Funnily enough I've had someone ask for tactical voting advice for this constituency this evening. I said that the tactical option was Labour, but that it's a very very long shot indeed & probably will stay Tory. I know the LDs have won here in the past but I am sure they are targetting other Cornish & Devonian seats before this one

[andrewp]

Jun 14, 2024 21:22:57 GMT heslingtonian said:

The only Conservative seat left in Cornwall perhaps?

Could be, It’s the most likely Conservative seat. I still think North Cornwall is a less likely LD gain than most LD long shots in the South West. 

[andrewp]

Jun 14, 2024 21:30:41 GMT batman said:

Funnily enough I've had someone ask for tactical voting advice for this constituency this evening. I said that the tactical option was Labour, but that it's a very very long shot indeed & probably will stay Tory. I know the LDs have won here in the past but I am sure they are targetting other Cornish & Devonian seats before this one

It feels a bit similar to Central Devon as discussed earlier tonight, although it’s easier to see where the Lab vote comes from here than in CD, in that Lab clearly should be the challengers this year but I’d be surprised if the Lab ceiling extended as far as the near 40% likely needed. + Sheryll Murray probably has more of a personal vote than most Tory MPs in Devon & Cornwall but probably still not a very big one.

[batman]

I don't think we will win it. We will win seats in Cornwall, but not this one.

[andrewp]

Jun 14, 2024 21:53:27 GMT batman said:

I don't think we will win it. We will win seats in Cornwall, but not this one.

I think in Cornwall, there are 2 certain Lab  gains and 1 certain LD gain

If I had to bet on SE Cornwall, I’d bet on a Tory hold, the other 2 - N Cornwall & St Austell and Newquay - I think are the uncertain ones, with the Tories more likely to hold the former than the latter.

[CatholicLeft]

At the start of the campaign (indeed, since the last election) I had whatever form of Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth that came out of the Boundary Commission, as Labour gains, I also thought that Newquay & St. Austell would be a shot for a future election, with Labour building strongly. I now think that Labour will gain here too.
I wouldn't really have South East Cornwall on the potential gain list, although they have had a remarkable gain in the Rame Peninsula and St. Germans Division of this constituency at the 2021 Unitary Council Elections.
The selection of retired Commodore Gareth Derrick (now a Plymouth Labour Councillor) as their candidate in 2017 was an inspired choice, which brought a lot of support from former service personnel and those connected to the Royal Naval dockyards, with Labour supplanting the Lib Dems as the main challengers to the Tories (which he maintained, in the 2019 GE). Mr Derrick nearly won the PCC election for Devon & Cornwall, with reports from vote observers suggesting he won in Cornwall.
I would not now be surprised if Labour ran Sheryll Murray close.

[Foggy]

Jun 29, 2024 21:09:03 GMT CatholicLeft said:

At the start of the campaign (indeed, since the last election) I had whatever form of Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth that came out of the Boundary Commission, as Labour gains, I also thought that Newquay & St. Austell would be a shot for a future election, with Labour building strongly. I now think that Labour will gain here too.
I wouldn't really have South East Cornwall on the potential gain list, although they have had a remarkable gain in the Rame Peninsula and St. Germans Division of this constituency at the 2021 Unitary Council Elections.
The selection of retired Commodore Gareth Derrick (now a Plymouth Labour Councillor) as their candidate in 2017 was an inspired choice, which brought a lot of support from former service personnel and those connected to the Royal Naval dockyards, with Labour supplanting the Lib Dems as the main challengers to the Tories (which he maintained, in the 2019 GE). Mr Derrick nearly won the PCC election for Devon & Cornwall, with reports from vote observers suggesting he won in Cornwall.
I would not now be surprised if Labour ran Sheryll Murray close.

Well, our own "observer" on these boards is an utter crank, so a more reliable source would be listener whose figures here confirm Derrick finished third on first preferences in Cornwall in 2021, a full 31% (or over 50,000 votes) behind Alison Hernandez. Even if you mean 2016, that makes it unlikely that he topped the poll five years beforehand in my view.

I accept Derrick likely took at least second place in this constituency on those occasions and that national polls are much changed from three and eight years ago, but I'm afraid you appear to be overegging the pudding here and do expect the seat to be a Conservative hold by the end of the coming week. 

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 29, 2024 22:44:43 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 29, 2024 21:09:03 GMT CatholicLeft said:

At the start of the campaign (indeed, since the last election) I had whatever form of Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth that came out of the Boundary Commission, as Labour gains, I also thought that Newquay & St. Austell would be a shot for a future election, with Labour building strongly. I now think that Labour will gain here too.
I wouldn't really have South East Cornwall on the potential gain list, although they have had a remarkable gain in the Rame Peninsula and St. Germans Division of this constituency at the 2021 Unitary Council Elections.
The selection of retired Commodore Gareth Derrick (now a Plymouth Labour Councillor) as their candidate in 2017 was an inspired choice, which brought a lot of support from former service personnel and those connected to the Royal Naval dockyards, with Labour supplanting the Lib Dems as the main challengers to the Tories (which he maintained, in the 2019 GE). Mr Derrick nearly won the PCC election for Devon & Cornwall, with reports from vote observers suggesting he won in Cornwall.
I would not now be surprised if Labour ran Sheryll Murray close.

Well, our own "observer" on these boards is an utter crank, so a more reliable source would be listener whose figures here confirm Derrick finished third on first preferences in Cornwall in 2021, a full 31% (or over 50,000 votes) behind Alison Hernandez. Even if you mean 2016, that makes it unlikely that he topped the poll five years beforehand in my view.

I accept Derrick likely took at least second place in this constituency on those occasions and that national polls are much changed from three and eight years ago, but I'm afraid you appear to be overegging the pudding here and do expect the seat to be a Conservative hold by the end of the coming week. 

Seriously? Everything I was hearing from Cornwall was of how Labour was growing (as 2017showed)  and Gareth Derrick, who was going to be a Cornwall candidate, campaigned hard there.  He could not have got close to winning n 2016,  as he did, if he hadn't done so well in Cornwall.

[observer]

Jun 29, 2024 22:44:43 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 29, 2024 21:09:03 GMT CatholicLeft said:

At the start of the campaign (indeed, since the last election) I had whatever form of Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth that came out of the Boundary Commission, as Labour gains, I also thought that Newquay & St. Austell would be a shot for a future election, with Labour building strongly. I now think that Labour will gain here too.
I wouldn't really have South East Cornwall on the potential gain list, although they have had a remarkable gain in the Rame Peninsula and St. Germans Division of this constituency at the 2021 Unitary Council Elections.
The selection of retired Commodore Gareth Derrick (now a Plymouth Labour Councillor) as their candidate in 2017 was an inspired choice, which brought a lot of support from former service personnel and those connected to the Royal Naval dockyards, with Labour supplanting the Lib Dems as the main challengers to the Tories (which he maintained, in the 2019 GE). Mr Derrick nearly won the PCC election for Devon & Cornwall, with reports from vote observers suggesting he won in Cornwall.
I would not now be surprised if Labour ran Sheryll Murray close.

Well, our own "observer" on these boards is an utter crank, so a more reliable source would be listener whose figures here confirm Derrick finished third on first preferences in Cornwall in 2021, a full 31% (or over 50,000 votes) behind Alison Hernandez. Even if you mean 2016, that makes it unlikely that he topped the poll five years beforehand in my view.

I accept Derrick likely took at least second place in this constituency on those occasions and that national polls are much changed from three and eight years ago, but I'm afraid you appear to be overegging the pudding here and do expect the seat to be a Conservative hold by the end of the coming week. 

An ad hom personal attack! Always deployed by people who can't mount an argument. You clearly have a closed and narrow mind if you think that being anti-lockdowns is the sign of being an 'utter crank'.
You need to get out of echo chambers.
And learn some manners. And how to make an argument , not just a childish insult

[Foggy]

Jun 29, 2024 22:49:43 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jun 29, 2024 22:44:43 GMT Foggy said:

Well, our own "observer" on these boards is an utter crank, so a more reliable source would be listener whose figures here confirm Derrick finished third on first preferences in Cornwall in 2021, a full 31% (or over 50,000 votes) behind Alison Hernandez. Even if you mean 2016, that makes it unlikely that he topped the poll five years beforehand in my view.

I accept Derrick likely took at least second place in this constituency on those occasions and that national polls are much changed from three and eight years ago, but I'm afraid you appear to be overegging the pudding here and do expect the seat to be a Conservative hold by the end of the coming week. 

Seriously?

Yes. What you said about Mr Derrick in the Plymouth Moor View thread was very touching and I agree that Johnny Mercer's attempted smear on the new Labour candidate there was despicable, but let's not go overboard. 

Labour strength in the policing area was essentially restricted to Exeter and Plymouth in 2016, and even if there was an unexpectedly strong showing in Cornwall it still wouldn't have realistically seen a Labour candidate top the poll back then. And in any event, the more probable strong second place would've been down to the three constituencies to the west of here rather than a sudden burst of support in Liskeard and Saltash. 

[Foggy]

Jun 29, 2024 23:00:13 GMT observer said:

Jun 29, 2024 22:44:43 GMT Foggy said:

Well, our own "observer" on these boards is an utter crank, so a more reliable source would be listener whose figures here confirm Derrick finished third on first preferences in Cornwall in 2021, a full 31% (or over 50,000 votes) behind Alison Hernandez. Even if you mean 2016, that makes it unlikely that he topped the poll five years beforehand in my view.

I accept Derrick likely took at least second place in this constituency on those occasions and that national polls are much changed from three and eight years ago, but I'm afraid you appear to be overegging the pudding here and do expect the seat to be a Conservative hold by the end of the coming week. 

An ad hom personal attack! Always deployed by people who can't mount an argument. You clearly have a closed and narrow mind if you think that being anti-lockdowns is the sign of being an 'utter crank'.

Oh look sweetie, it's your favourite turn of phrase! 

Based on your recent posts, there's far more reason for bemusement than just your views on lockdown, although I never noticed anything untoward about your contributions during my pre-Covid period of activity on these boards so perhaps that was the event which sent you down a bunch of rabbit holes you're yet to dig yourself out of. I wish you the best in seeing the light someday soon (though presumably not by this Thursday). 

[observer]

Jun 29, 2024 23:09:09 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 29, 2024 23:00:13 GMT observer said:

An ad hom personal attack! Always deployed by people who can't mount an argument. You clearly have a closed and narrow mind if you think that being anti-lockdowns is the sign of being an 'utter crank'.

Oh look sweetie, it's your favourite turn of phrase! 

Based on your recent posts, there's far more reason for bemusement than just your views on lockdown, although I never noticed anything untoward about your contributions during my pre-Covid period of activity on these boards so perhaps that was the event which sent you down a bunch of rabbit holes you're yet to dig yourself out of. I wish you the best in seeing the light someday soon (though presumably not by this Thursday). 

Yes, ad hominem attacks are the sign of an immature mind.
You are clearly uninformed of the issues around lockdown.
Uninformed around many issues, I expect, if you think that it is wrong to question the coronavirus disaster. You believe whatever you are told? You don't question?
You are a naive and orthodox fool, unable to break out of groupthink. You'll grow up one day, little lad. Perhaps

[Foggy]

Jun 29, 2024 23:16:25 GMT observer said:

Jun 29, 2024 23:09:09 GMT Foggy said:

Oh look sweetie, it's your favourite turn of phrase! 

Based on your recent posts, there's far more reason for bemusement than just your views on lockdown, although I never noticed anything untoward about your contributions during my pre-Covid period of activity on these boards so perhaps that was the event which sent you down a bunch of rabbit holes you're yet to dig yourself out of. I wish you the best in seeing the light someday soon (though presumably not by this Thursday). 

Yes, ad hominem attacks are the sign of an immature mind.
You'll grow up one day, little lad. Perhaps

You flatter me. I'm pushing 40. Now run along, scamp. Some of us are busying being shocked at claims that Labour could've topped the poll here in an election during a national nadir. 

[observer]

Jun 29, 2024 23:35:17 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 29, 2024 23:16:25 GMT observer said:

Yes, ad hominem attacks are the sign of an immature mind.
You'll grow up one day, little lad. Perhaps

You flatter me. I'm pushing 40. Now run along, scamp. Some of us are busying being shocked at claims that Labour could've topped the poll here in an election during a national nadir. 

Ha ha, I was referring to you behaving like a little boy.
Astonishing that you think the raising of of issues such as house prices, downward pressure on wages, the printing of money, inflation, job losses, educational loss, health problems, the danger of world war are crankish.
I suppose it only shows how out of touch you are that you are so dismissive of such issues.
Get to bed...your mummy will be calling you soon

[Foggy]

Jun 29, 2024 23:41:47 GMT observer said:

Jun 29, 2024 23:35:17 GMT Foggy said:

You flatter me. I'm pushing 40. Now run along, scamp. Some of us are busying being shocked at claims that Labour could've topped the poll here in an election during a national nadir. 

Astonishing that you think the raising of of issues such as house prices, downward pressure on wages, the printing of money, inflation, job losses, educational loss, health problems, the danger of world war are crankish.

Get to bed...your mummy will be calling you soon

Like most people on this forum, I am able to hold concerns about all of those topics without resorting to conspiracy theories. 

My mother lives 400km away, but nice try. Night night. 

[observer]

Jun 30, 2024 0:18:18 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 29, 2024 23:41:47 GMT observer said:

Astonishing that you think the raising of of issues such as house prices, downward pressure on wages, the printing of money, inflation, job losses, educational loss, health problems, the danger of world war are crankish.

Get to bed...your mummy will be calling you soon

Like most people on this forum, I am able to hold concerns about all of those topics without resorting to conspiracy theories. 

My mother lives 400km away, but nice try. Night night. 

You dismiss these areas as conspiracy theories? Oh dear...that printing money ruins an economy? That lockdowns cost jobs? Oh dear. I understand that the parties may want to not talk about these issues. To get through an election doing so!
But citizens own the election, not the parties and their hacks. Sorry if that seems crankish to you.
You clearly hate - that's clear -anyone who holds different views. Immature. Have a think about that .
Then run along before your mum reminds you to turn off the light, little boy

[Foggy]

All I'd add to that is that there is little up for debate about facts of pandemic-era policy and its (largely negative) consequences, it's just the idea that there was some sinister global grand plan behind them which takes it into more questionable territory.

Back on topic - can't see anything but this corner of the map still being blue come Friday morning. My little sister and brother-in-law live just the other side of the Tamar bridge, but they're on parental leave at the moment so not sure how much chance they've had to talk to colleagues that are also potential voters who might live this side of the river.