stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:44:45 GMT
South Dorset
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Post by dp1811 on May 20, 2024 14:43:37 GMT
Many projections now have South Dorset going Labour, as it did in both 2001 and 2005. I think Labour are the obvious challengers here but I wouldn’t regard their chances quite as good as the polls may suggest.
The local CLP seems to be in a bad state. We know the Lib Dems have local strength here that doesn’t usually translate nationally, but with that said I had expected to see at least some sort of Labour showing at the Dorset Council elections in this part of the world. I would imagine they are quite disappointed with their results in Weymouth, and given the collapse in the Tory vote across the county, I thought Labour wouldve won at least 1 of the 2 seats in Swanage.
Obviously making gains at the General Election will be much easier for the Labour Party than the Lib Dems or the Greens. I still have this one down as a Labour Gain as it stands, but compare the local results here with those in other seats that Labour hope to gain and you can’t help but spot a potential problem for them going forward.
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Post by batman on May 20, 2024 15:02:27 GMT
I don't think many in the Labour Party are expecting to win this one. It would be a major bonus if we did. In the subregion much more attention will be paid to the Bournemouth seats.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on May 20, 2024 19:50:40 GMT
I do remember the 1962 South Dorset by-election where Labour candidate Guy Barnett defeated Angus Maude to win the seat. This result was helped by the candidature of Sir Piers Debenham as an ‘Anti-Common Market’ Tory candidate (backed by the outgoing MP, Viscount Hinchingbrooke) polling over 12%. It was the first by-election I saw where the BBC devoted a lot of time to covering the election and the results.
The by-election was also notable for three candidates from the armed forces seeking a discharge from the services by standing.
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Post by batman on May 20, 2024 20:28:28 GMT
I didn't know that Maude had been the Tory candidate in that by-election, although I could have easily enough found out. I only vaguely knew that he had represented a different constituency before Stratford-on-Avon.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 20, 2024 21:26:25 GMT
Angus Maude was MP for Ealing South from 1950 but resigned in 1958 when he was offered the job of Editor of the Sydney Morning Herald - a fairly odd reason for a byelection but possibly partly motivated by his disillusion with British politics - he was a leading member of the 'Suez Group' who wanted the UK to remain in control of the Suez Canal as an imperial possession, and therefore strongly opposed to the withdrawal from Suez in 1957.
In the resulting byelection in Ealing South, the Labour candidate was Hugh Garside - one of the most important figures in the Labour Party in Cities of London and Westminster, who went on to be the longest serving Labour councillor in the constituency (1959-68, and from 1971 until his tragically early death in 1993).
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Post by finsobruce on May 20, 2024 21:56:39 GMT
I do remember the 1962 South Dorset by-election where Labour candidate Guy Barnett defeated Angus Maude to win the seat. This result was helped by the candidature of Sir Piers Debenham as an ‘Anti-Common Market’ Tory candidate (backed by the outgoing MP, Viscount Hinchingbrooke) polling over 12%. It was the first by-election I saw where the BBC devoted a lot of time to covering the election and the results. The by-election was also notable for three candidates from the armed forces seeking a discharge from the services by standing. Also notable iirc for Barnett's reply to a journalist who was sort of encouraging him to say that he'd expected to win : "Frankly, I'm amazed". |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 16:43:23 GMT
The Labour candidate is Lloyd Hatton, a Camden councillor for Kilburn with local roots. The fact that he is a London councillor will be a drawback in many voters' minds, but I doubt there was anyone local willing to run that would've been much good.
Lib Dem candidate is Matt Bell, who was elected as a town councillor in a by-election a couple of years back and very comfortably won a Dorset Council seat earlier this month (with a clear personal vote but also in a very safe Lib Dem ward). He appears to be running the most active campaign for the party in the constituency since at least 2010. He has made a name for himself in Weymouth, and aside from Swanage and Portland, the Lib Dems have built up a local presence elsewhere in the constituency where Labour are nowhere to be seen. I suspect that this could be one of the Lib Dems' best performances in a seat where they are both currently 3rd and are likely to remain as such.
The Green candidate is Jon Orrell, who is a fairly popular local councillor and GP who ran last time. It's hard to predict how well they'll do but I suspect other parties will find it hard to squeeze them out entirely.
I presume Drax is running again. The controversy about his wealth and family history does seem to have a negative impact for many but he speaks about local issues enough in parliament to have a bit of a personal vote in some circles.
Overall I expect that Labour will have problems with squeezing Lib Dems and the Greens and my best guess is that they will miss out for this reason. I suspect the winning vote share will be well under 50%.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Jun 7, 2024 18:43:49 GMT
Candidates:
Matt Bell Liberal Democrats
Catherine Bennett Green Party
Richard Drax The Conservative Party Candidate
Lloyd Hatton Labour Party
Giovanna Elizabeth Lewis ND
Rosie Frisby Morrell ND
Joy Heather Wilson Independent
Morgan Tara Young Reform UK
Reform's candidate lives in South Derbyshire, all others live either in South Dorset or an adjoining constituency.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 5:33:52 GMT
Candidates: Matt Bell Liberal Democrats Catherine Bennett Green Party Richard Drax The Conservative Party Candidate Lloyd Hatton Labour Party Giovanna Elizabeth Lewis ND Rosie Frisby Morrell ND Joy Heather Wilson Independent Morgan Tara Young Reform UK Reform's candidate lives in South Derbyshire, all others live either in South Dorset or an adjoining constituency. Who is a Portland town councillor who quit Labour over Palestine. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Jun 13, 2024 13:08:31 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 18, 2024 20:13:46 GMT
Rosie Frisby Morrell looks like she'll liven this one up – here she is on Who Can I Vote For. I would not recommend clicking through to her campaign website or her other website whilst at work. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 18, 2024 20:49:44 GMT
Rosie Frisby Morrell looks like she'll liven this one up – here she is on Who Can I Vote For. I would not recommend clicking through to her campaign website or her other website whilst at work. Who is she anyway? I had never heard of her before she was listed as a "No Description" candidate on South Dorset's SOPN. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 18, 2024 20:57:36 GMT
Rosie Frisby Morrell looks like she'll liven this one up – here she is on Who Can I Vote For. I would not recommend clicking through to her campaign website or her other website whilst at work. Who is she anyway? I had never heard of her before she was listed as a "No Description" candidate on South Dorset's SOPN. Whoever she is, she certainly isn't the 'first sex worker to enter British Politics' as she claims. Cynthia Payne, Lindi St Clair, Katie Price (arguably) to name a few have similarly stood for parliament and made zero impact |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 19, 2024 0:10:16 GMT
Rosie Frisby Morrell looks like she'll liven this one up – here she is on Who Can I Vote For. I would not recommend clicking through to her campaign website or her other website whilst at work. Considering her stated profession, I enjoy the fact that until there's a result, that site lists her in the right-hand column as " Position not available"! |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 19, 2024 2:40:16 GMT
Who is she anyway? I had never heard of her before she was listed as a "No Description" candidate on South Dorset's SOPN. Whoever she is, she certainly isn't the 'first sex worker to enter British Politics' as she claims. Cynthia Payne, Lindi St Clair, Katie Price (arguably) to name a few have similarly stood for parliament and made zero impact I’m sure Miss Whiplash made plenty of impact. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 9:37:19 GMT
The Labour candidate is Lloyd Hatton, a Camden councillor for Kilburn with local roots. The fact that he is a London councillor will be a drawback in many voters' minds, but I doubt there was anyone local willing to run that would've been much good. Lib Dem candidate is Matt Bell, who was elected as a town councillor in a by-election a couple of years back and very comfortably won a Dorset Council seat earlier this month (with a clear personal vote but also in a very safe Lib Dem ward). He appears to be running the most active campaign for the party in the constituency since at least 2010. He has made a name for himself in Weymouth, and aside from Swanage and Portland, the Lib Dems have built up a local presence elsewhere in the constituency where Labour are nowhere to be seen. I suspect that this could be one of the Lib Dems' best performances in a seat where they are both currently 3rd and are likely to remain as such. The Green candidate is Jon Orrell, who is a fairly popular local councillor and GP who ran last time. It's hard to predict how well they'll do but I suspect other parties will find it hard to squeeze them out entirely. I presume Drax is running again. The controversy about his wealth and family history does seem to have a negative impact for many but he speaks about local issues enough in parliament to have a bit of a personal vote in some circles. Overall I expect that Labour will have problems with squeezing Lib Dems and the Greens and my best guess is that they will miss out for this reason. I suspect the winning vote share will be well under 50%. It does seem like Labour have got their act together locally somewhat, and so I think they have a real prospect of winning, although definitely not set in stone. The Lib Dem candidate still seems to be pushing hard, but I don't think they're going anywhere. I was wrong about who the Green candidate is (I'm not sure if that was a last minute change or I was wrong all along), and they don't seem to be doing as much here as they did in 2019.
I purposely didn't mention Reform as I suspected at the time that national polling for them could change a lot during the campaign, which I wasn't wrong about. I suspect they will get a bit above their national vote share. Some Reform-leaning voters might stick with the Conservatives because they like Drax. But I suspect there are a lot of Reform voters who are turning from the Conservatives due to cost of living issues but aren't fans of Labour... for these voters, Drax probably isn't a good advertisement for the Conservatives.
In hindsight my comment about the winning vote share being well under 50% was a bit meaningless.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Jun 28, 2024 16:06:10 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 28, 2024 18:45:20 GMT
Rosie Frisby Morrell looks like she'll liven this one up – here she is on Who Can I Vote For. I would not recommend clicking through to her campaign website or her other website whilst at work. I'm disappointed after this teaser that right hasn't found a leaflet to post. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 14:57:54 GMT
Kate Hoey has been out campaigning with Drax in Weymouth. I'm not particularly surprised that Hoey is willing to support Tory MPs on the right of that party, but I'd guess the specific link here is Northern Ireland related.
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