Salisbury

[Ports]

Jul 6, 2024 17:42:37 GMT steve said:

Jul 6, 2024 17:22:33 GMT greenhert said:

Unusually in this seat, both the Labour and the Liberal Democrats significantly increased their vote share, but the Conservatives held Salisbury yet again because of this split opposition, even though Reform UK finished 4th with a vote share well below their national average.

Perhaps a party whose leader has links to Putin wouldn't be too popular in this part of the world.

And a candidate who seemed unaware of recent history to boot.

[heslingtonian]

Salisbury does appear to be one of the most loyal Conservative seats there is despite never being completely safe numerically. I sense John Glen is reasonably popular here.

[greenhert]

Jul 7, 2024 16:25:28 GMT heslingtonian said:

Salisbury does appear to be one of the most loyal Conservative seats there is despite never being completely safe numerically. I sense John Glen is reasonably popular here.

That has only happened due to mistakes by the non-Conservative opposition, in particular in 1997 and again this year.

[heslingtonian]

Jul 7, 2024 19:41:15 GMT greenhert said:

Jul 7, 2024 16:25:28 GMT heslingtonian said:

Salisbury does appear to be one of the most loyal Conservative seats there is despite never being completely safe numerically. I sense John Glen is reasonably popular here.

That has only happened due to mistakes by the non-Conservative opposition, in particular in 1997 and again this year.

Was it in 1997 when Farage stood here? The anti-Conservative Opposition has always appeared disorganised here.

[greenhert]

Jul 7, 2024 19:55:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 7, 2024 19:41:15 GMT greenhert said:

That has only happened due to mistakes by the non-Conservative opposition, in particular in 1997 and again this year.

Was it in 1997 when Farage stood here? The anti-Conservative Opposition has always appeared disorganised here.

It was. Note that I was primarily referring to the Liberal Democrats' mistake of selecting a candidate with no connection to the constituency that year.

[evergreenadam]

Salisbury has remained stubbornly Tory over the years, despite the presence of a sizeable anti-Tory vote. I guess there are Lib Dems here who would never vote Labour so that makes a Labour gain so much harder. Had the Lib Dems maintained a clear second place after 2010 then things might have gone differently. Turnout was high here and hardly dropped since last time.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Interestingly, whilst the Liberals and LDs squeezed the Labour vote share into single digits at most elections between 1979 and 1992, they then didn't make any inroads at all under Blair and except for a blip in 2010 (judging by the name, I suspect the Labour candidate then may have been a factor) our floor seems to be about 15%.

That strikes me as very unusual for a seat in the South West.

[evergreenadam]

Aug 27, 2024 14:14:04 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Interestingly, whilst the Liberals and LDs squeezed the Labour vote share into single digits at most elections between 1979 and 1992, they then didn't make any inroads at all under Blair and except for a blip in 2010 (judging by the name, I suspect the Labour candidate then may have been a factor) our floor seems to be about 15%.

That strikes me as very unusual for a seat in the South West.

Maybe the various demographic elements of the constituency don’t naturally gel together so well for the centre-left here. There’s the council estates, the huge rural hinterland as well as the cathedral city middle class. I think the squaddie vote is in East Wiltshire constituency?

[batman]

the majority of it would be yes, for example it includes Tidworth, but I'm sure there is still something of a military vote here too.

[East Anglian Lefty]

It's definitely the case that it hasn't been possible to collapse all the anti-Tory vote into a single column in recent elections, but what I find odd is that it was prior to 1997 and I'm not sure what will have changed since. Normally once the Lib Dems have locked down the working-class Labour vote in South West constituencies it has stayed locked down in any election the LDs have made any effort in at all.

[mrtoad]

Salisbury is another of those seats where Labour put up a very decent showing in 1966 (see also Hereford, Truro), in this case coming closer than they did in 1945, but then collapsed ignominiously by 1974 and were eclipsed by the Liberal revival. Perhaps an element of the 1966 Labour vote was a disguised Liberal vote that went over when they acquired national credibility?

There's also perhaps the importance of individuals - Paul Sample has been the key Lib Dem local activist for ages and seems to be a good organiser; that's probably kept them in the game.

Separately, I thought at the time it was politically naive and self-destructive for Labour to have made Wiltshire a county-unitary council (ditto Shropshire). In a smaller authority like the old Salisbury DC Labour can be a strong presence and possibly lead the council (they were making gains in the 1990s and 2000s) while in Wiltshire they're a third party at best with influence once in a blue moon when the Tories lose their majority.

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 29, 2024 12:29:42 GMT mrtoad said:

Separately, I thought at the time it was politically naive and self-destructive for Labour to have made Wiltshire a county-unitary council (ditto Shropshire). In a smaller authority like the old Salisbury DC Labour can be a strong presence and possibly lead the council (they were making gains in the 1990s and 2000s) while in Wiltshire they're a third party at best with influence once in a blue moon when the Tories lose their majority.

In Whitby (and by hearsay in Scarborough) almost all the Labour people I knew were devillishly in support of county unitarisation - even though it would - and has - exterminate the Labour strength at council level.

[kevinf]

Aug 29, 2024 8:33:55 GMT batman said:

the majority of it would be yes, for example it includes Tidworth, but I'm sure there is still something of a military vote here too.

…and of course the Labour candidate came from a military background. 

[greenhert]

Aug 29, 2024 12:29:42 GMT mrtoad said:

Salisbury is another of those seats where Labour put up a very decent showing in 1966 (see also Hereford, Truro), in this case coming closer than they did in 1945, but then collapsed ignominiously by 1974 and were eclipsed by the Liberal revival. Perhaps an element of the 1966 Labour vote was a disguised Liberal vote that went over when they acquired national credibility?

There's also perhaps the importance of individuals - Paul Sample has been the key Lib Dem local activist for ages and seems to be a good organiser; that's probably kept them in the game.

Separately, I thought at the time it was politically naive and self-destructive for Labour to have made Wiltshire a county-unitary council (ditto Shropshire). In a smaller authority like the old Salisbury DC Labour can be a strong presence and possibly lead the council (they were making gains in the 1990s and 2000s) while in Wiltshire they're a third party at best with influence once in a blue moon when the Tories lose their majority.

For the record, Wiltshire County Council chose to make itself a county-unitary council and Labour never held overall control of Wiltshire CC at any time. In fact of the first set of county councils that chose to activate the clause of the Local Government and Public Involvement in Health Act 2007 to become one or two unitary authorities, only one (Durham) was under overall Labour control at the time.

[mrtoad]

I don't think that amends anything I've said. I've not claimed Wiltshire CC was ever Labour - quite the reverse. It was an Act passed by the Labour majority in Parliament that enabled controlling groups on county councils to adopt this model of local government and therefore my criticism stands.

[The Bishop]

Aug 29, 2024 14:02:14 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Aug 29, 2024 12:29:42 GMT mrtoad said:

Separately, I thought at the time it was politically naive and self-destructive for Labour to have made Wiltshire a county-unitary council (ditto Shropshire). In a smaller authority like the old Salisbury DC Labour can be a strong presence and possibly lead the council (they were making gains in the 1990s and 2000s) while in Wiltshire they're a third party at best with influence once in a blue moon when the Tories lose their majority.

In Whitby (and by hearsay in Scarborough) almost all the Labour people I knew were devillishly in support of county unitarisation - even though it would - and has - exterminate the Labour strength at council level.

Looking at the most recent unitary results for N Yorks, this maybe appears to be just a slight exaggeration?

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 30, 2024 9:48:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Aug 29, 2024 14:02:14 GMT J.G.Harston said:

In Whitby (and by hearsay in Scarborough) almost all the Labour people I knew were devillishly in support of county unitarisation - even though it would - and has - exterminate the Labour strength at council level.

Looking at the most recent unitary results for N Yorks, this maybe appears to be just a slight exaggeration?

Slightly - but realistically, Labour ran or were part of the administration of Scarborough Borough Council about half the time, the Conservatives have run North Yorkshire forever.