stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379 
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Salisbury
Mar 14, 2024 0:42:59 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:42:59 GMT
Salisbury
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Salisbury
May 27, 2024 20:52:21 GMT
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2024 20:52:21 GMT
Matt Aldridge standing for Labour here. And the local Labour Party are...keen...if their social media is to be believed (4/6 on oddschecker...😬).;
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 18:05:45 GMT
To be fair at the very top end of expectations in a real Tory meltdown there is a path to a Labour win here. Not the most likely result but far from impossible either
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on May 28, 2024 18:54:50 GMT
I'm reckoning this is a tory hold - very narrow but they'll hold.
Conservative - 40%
Labour - 37%
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 28, 2024 18:57:58 GMT
Labour only 8/11 here - no thanks.
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Post by kevinf on May 28, 2024 19:53:30 GMT
I'm reckoning this is a tory hold - very narrow but they'll hold. Conservative - 40% Labour - 37% I live in the neighbouring seat. It won’t be close. |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on May 28, 2024 19:57:24 GMT
I'm reckoning this is a tory hold - very narrow but they'll hold. Conservative - 40% Labour - 37% I live in the neighbouring seat. It won’t be close. Eh, on a 20 point lead, I cant see it being too solid for the tories - unless that lead drops a good bit (but im going of off curent figures) no way tories can secure more than about an 8 - 10 point lead here. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 28, 2024 20:33:56 GMT
The Lib Dems are on a notional (and squeezable) 20% of the vote however.
These evenly split oppositions in Tory held seats are vulnerable if the electorate can get it's tactical knowhow together. Ludlow in 2001 being a good example.
And of course Reform will take a nice juicy munch out of that 55% Tory share too.
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Post by batman on May 28, 2024 22:40:31 GMT
Goodness, it really would be something for Labour to win in Salisbury. I'll believe it when I see it.
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Post by greenhert on May 29, 2024 6:39:08 GMT
The Lib Dems are on a notional (and squeezable) 20% of the vote however. These evenly split oppositions in Tory held seats are vulnerable if the electorate can get it's tactical knowhow together. Ludlow in 2001 being a good example. And of course Reform will take a nice juicy munch out of that 55% Tory share too. And North Norfolk that same year. This did not happen in the Suffolk seats of Central Suffolk & Ipswich North, South Suffolk and Suffolk Coastal however, and the Conservatives polled <40% in all 3 of these seats in 1997. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 3, 2024 18:12:40 GMT
To follow on from last week's chatter, today's YouGov MRP has:
Con: 37.4
Lab: 25.2
LD: 19.3
Reform: 9.9
Green: 7.3%
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 18:46:40 GMT
SOPNMatt Aldridge (Lab) Victoria Charleston (LD) John Glen (Con) Chris Harwood (Climate Party) Julian Malins (Ref) Barney Norris (Grn) King Arthur Pendragon (Ind)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 24, 2024 21:42:27 GMT
This could equally well go in the Reform thread or the Outstanding Stupidity one, but the RefUK candidate got booed at hustings for boasting of having met Putin and what a nice man he was. Possibly if they'd selected a candidate who actually came from Salisbury they might have spotted the unwisdom of taking that line in this specific constituency. link |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 21:46:04 GMT
Are they trying to make Farage look sensible and competent by getting all their other candidates to say something insane?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Salisbury
Jun 24, 2024 22:01:42 GMT
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Post by john07 on Jun 24, 2024 22:01:42 GMT
Are they trying to make Farage look sensible and competent by getting all their other candidates to say something insane? It’s Trump style inoculation. They are normalising bat-shit crazy language so that no-one bats an eyelid next time. Salisbury is an obvious constituency to laud Putin given his history of sending his agents as ‘tourists’ in the area. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Salisbury
Jul 2, 2024 11:24:33 GMT
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Post by cogload on Jul 2, 2024 11:24:33 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 2, 2024 12:54:32 GMT
John Glen will be over the moon if you vote for him. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 2, 2024 17:43:18 GMT
John Glen will be over the moon if you vote for him. Indeed. There's much at Steak in this election. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 6, 2024 17:22:33 GMT
Unusually in this seat, both the Labour and the Liberal Democrats significantly increased their vote share, but the Conservatives held Salisbury yet again because of this split opposition, even though Reform UK finished 4th with a vote share well below their national average.
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jul 6, 2024 17:42:37 GMT
Unusually in this seat, both the Labour and the Liberal Democrats significantly increased their vote share, but the Conservatives held Salisbury yet again because of this split opposition, even though Reform UK finished 4th with a vote share well below their national average. Perhaps a party whose leader has links to Putin wouldn't be too popular in this part of the world. |
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