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Post by finsobruce on Jun 9, 2024 17:50:28 GMT
Aren't Workers Party and WPGB the same? If not, I apologise but he is a candidate.
No. He is the candidate for the Workers Party of Britain. Accusing the WPB of being the WPGB is like accusing the CPB of being the CPGB or the CPGB(ML), or like accusing the RCP of being the RCPBML, or accusing the Liberal Democrats of being the Liberal Party, or accusing an ant of being a hippopotamus. You wouldn't confuse an ant and a hippopotamus on the ballot paper though. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 9, 2024 19:09:03 GMT
Con 29.1% Lab 28.8% Ref 28.5% (It's between any of these three) LD 7.5% Grn 5.7% Workers 0.4% (This is not their area and the candidate is a weak public speaker) The ability to be a good public speaker being a significant factor in general election constituencies ceased in about 1935. |
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Post by batman on Jun 9, 2024 19:36:13 GMT
Again I completely disagree about your assessment of how well Reform will do. They do have areas of fairly natural strength. I really don't think this is one of them.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056 
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Post by jamie on Jun 9, 2024 19:43:42 GMT
The UKIP vote in 2015 was very similar to their national vote, so 28.5% would require them to get basically double of their current polling.
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jun 9, 2024 21:30:28 GMT
The UKIP vote in 2015 was very similar to their national vote, so 28.5% would require them to get basically double of their current polling. Their candidate is not strong either. If Reform where to even get double digits here they needed to pick someone somewhat presentable. |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jun 9, 2024 21:32:21 GMT
Labour: 38%
Conservative: 35%
Liberal Democrat: 12%
Reform: 8%
Green: 7%
my previous projection above but given recent events
Labour: 38%
Conservative: 30%
Reform: 13%
Liberal Democrat: 12%
Green: 6%
Workers: 1% (the lower end.)
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jul 1, 2024 18:48:17 GMT
  I drew up a graph of projections from models and MRP's for North Somerset. Labour currently have a comfortably lead and have done for the past month. |
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Post by froome on Jul 1, 2024 19:06:38 GMT
Has the poll just be put here, or does nobody have an opinion of who might win here?
I suspect it will be close. The overspill of Bristol residents moving into this area may be enough to push it into Labour's column, but if the slight uptick in Tory polling continues, I suspect they will just hold on.
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jul 1, 2024 19:16:20 GMT
Has the poll just be put here, or does nobody have an opinion of who might win here? I suspect it will be close. The overspill of Bristol residents moving into this area may be enough to push it into Labour's column, but if the slight uptick in Tory polling continues, I suspect they will just hold on. Personally reckon it leans towards Labour right now - and it has been trending towards us for a while now (which I dont think is ever considered) Clevedon will probably come out heavily for Labour on tactical votes from Lib Dems, Portishead is a bit more debatable but has some lower middle aged liberal areas in it which likely voted tory previously but will vote Labour now. Nailsea will probably hold for the tories - but Labour winning a ward there in a locals feels like a huge shift in opinion there. |
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Post by froome on Jul 1, 2024 21:20:56 GMT
Has the poll just be put here, or does nobody have an opinion of who might win here? I suspect it will be close. The overspill of Bristol residents moving into this area may be enough to push it into Labour's column, but if the slight uptick in Tory polling continues, I suspect they will just hold on. Personally reckon it leans towards Labour right now - and it has been trending towards us for a while now (which I dont think is ever considered) Clevedon will probably come out heavily for Labour on tactical votes from Lib Dems, Portishead is a bit more debatable but has some lower middle aged liberal areas in it which likely voted tory previously but will vote Labour now. Nailsea will probably hold for the tories - but Labour winning a ward there in a locals feels like a huge shift in opinion there. It is certainly trending towards labour, but the point is whether it is trending towards Labour enough. This will depend on what the polls are telling us. I suspect this is the sort of seat where quite a few Conservative to Reform switchers may decide to back the Conservatives at the last minute. |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jul 5, 2024 17:18:00 GMT
Tad close for comfort but Sadik Al-Hassan now MP for North Somerset. Was at the count, it was certainly tense leading up to the decleration, we (Labour) were worried it would go to recount but Fox ended up conceding. Feels incredibly sureal that a seat like this, not even a target for Labour, flipped even I had predicted this occuring.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 5, 2024 17:19:36 GMT
Tad close for comfort but Sadik Al-Hassan now MP for North Somerset. Was at the count, it was certainly tense leading up to the decleration, we (Labour) were worried it would go to recount but Fox ended up conceding. Feels incredibly sureal that a seat like this, not even a target for Labour, flipped even I had predicted this occuring. It was trending Labour recently though, like its neighbour Weston-super-Mare (also a historic Labour gain) so I mentally put it in the possible gains column. |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jul 8, 2024 17:24:18 GMT
Labour: 38% Conservative: 35% Liberal Democrat: 12% Reform: 8% Green: 7% my previous projection above but given recent events Labour: 38% Conservative: 30% Reform: 13% Liberal Democrat: 12% Green: 6% Workers: 1% (the lower end.) Should have stuck to my guns on this one |
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Post by batman on Jul 8, 2024 21:44:31 GMT
Don't beat yourself up Harold  You should be very happy with the outcome. Compare the result here with Woodspring in 1997 & 2001 (the 2 seats are pretty similar) and think how much progress Labour has made in the last 23 years here. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 9, 2024 13:04:41 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jul 9, 2024 17:11:36 GMT
Fox's video of him "packing up and leaving the commons" is fascinating. Another example of “I didn’t realise he had lost his seat” or, in his case, more like “I thought he had retired already”. There are just too many to keep track of. I’m also not as anoraky as I was 20 years ago about remembering or learning the names of hundreds of MPs anyway. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 9, 2024 17:22:07 GMT
I picked up more of an accent than I've heard before. Entitlement is a strong word, as is shellshock, and I'll use that because what I've seen from JRM, Truss, Nigel Evans and now Liam Fox looks like bewildered disbelief. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 9, 2024 17:28:49 GMT
I picked up more of an accent than I've heard before. Entitlement is a strong word, as is shellshock, and I'll use that because what I've seen from JRM, Truss, Nigel Evans and now Liam Fox looks like bewildered disbelief. I don't think they realised until now how disliked the Tory party is, right now. I personally dislike Liz Truss very strongly but I don't have particularly negative feelings towards any of the other four. Some of the losing candidates will have deserved to lose for being crap MPs (or just being Liz Truss), others will have been swept away with the overall national picture - the main opposition getting their vote out, some tactical, some Tories switching, or staying at home... |
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 1,426
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Post by hengog on Jul 9, 2024 18:27:59 GMT
A good MP and a good, and dignified statement. Every Parliament ends with people losing their jobs - both MPs and staff- many of them decent enough people. That’s democracy, unless it’s PR based when they can usually rely on a job for life.
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Post by batman on Aug 14, 2024 6:38:37 GMT
In noting Labour’s fine breakthrough here, I hope that the Lib Dem candidate took his defeat well; perhaps some of his relatives and neighbours might have been inclined to blame Canada.
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You should be very happy with the outcome. Compare the result here with Woodspring in 1997 & 2001 (the 2 seats are pretty similar) and think how much progress Labour has made in the last 23 years here.
