stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:41:25 GMT
North Somerset
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on May 28, 2024 18:49:35 GMT
Of the cuff prediction but I'm reckoning something along the lines of:
Labour: 38%
Conservative: 35%
Liberal Democrat: 12%
Reform: 8%
Green: 7%
Wouldn't put it past a 2019 council cohort independents standing though - but couldn't see who that would be at the moment!
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 28, 2024 21:27:30 GMT
A Fox hunting seat for Labour - they are 1/6 wow.
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
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Post by haroldthepolitician on May 28, 2024 21:40:08 GMT
A Fox hunting seat for Labour - they are 1/6 wow. Yep, I'd add that Labour's vote held up very well in 2019 - so perhaps symbolic of its wider trend towards Labour - Fox majority only rose about a point. That being said, Hannah Young was an incredibly strong local candidate - having met him, think Sadik is a very strong candidate too but Hannah had a bit of name recognition which Sadik won't have! |
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Post by matureleft on May 28, 2024 22:08:59 GMT
A Fox hunting seat for Labour - they are 1/6 wow. Labour’s odds in many seats are ridiculous and really poor value. There must be some excellent Tory odds around in seats that they should only lose in a literally unprecedented disaster - comfortably worse than 1997 (and I still can’t believe that’s what they face). |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 28, 2024 22:10:36 GMT
A Fox hunting seat for Labour - they are 1/6 wow. Labour’s odds in many seats are ridiculous and really poor value. There must be some excellent Tory odds around in seats that they should only lose in a literally unprecedented disaster - comfortably worse than 1997 (and I still can’t believe that’s what they face). Yes well all my bets will be on Tory holds - this is where the best value lies. I'm still to decide which seats though |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2024 5:53:09 GMT
A Fox hunting seat for Labour - they are 1/6 wow. Labour’s odds in many seats are ridiculous and really poor value. There must be some excellent Tory odds around in seats that they should only lose in a literally unprecedented disaster - comfortably worse than 1997 (and I still can’t believe that’s what they face). Poor value odds are rarely balanced by good value odds. This is a fairly fundamental concept of betting companies and I'm getting a bit tired of all of the posts on this forum about a system which is inherently designed to predict things imperfectly. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 29, 2024 5:59:38 GMT
Labour’s odds in many seats are ridiculous and really poor value. There must be some excellent Tory odds around in seats that they should only lose in a literally unprecedented disaster - comfortably worse than 1997 (and I still can’t believe that’s what they face). Yes well all my bets will be on Tory holds - this is where the best value lies. I'm still to decide which seats though As in 2017 but in reverse. There were absurd odds on Labour holding safe Labour seats at the outset of the campaign, which surprise surprise turned out to be safe Labour seats. |
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Post by matureleft on May 29, 2024 6:36:51 GMT
Labour’s odds in many seats are ridiculous and really poor value. There must be some excellent Tory odds around in seats that they should only lose in a literally unprecedented disaster - comfortably worse than 1997 (and I still can’t believe that’s what they face). Poor value odds are rarely balanced by good value odds. This is a fairly fundamental concept of betting companies and I'm getting a bit tired of all of the posts on this forum about a system which is inherently designed to predict things imperfectly. I don’t think it’s being claimed (certainly not by me) that odds are in any sense scientific predictions. They are based on where the money (rather small amounts in most constituencies) is going and are thus reflections of the sentiments of a few punters. But if you glance at the various sites you will find some match between ridiculous Labour odds and the odds for other parties. Take Chichester where I lived until a couple of weeks ago. Labour is at 10/11 (!), the Tories at 11/8 and the Lib Dems at 9/2. There is some symmetry (which you appear to deny). If those odds are genuinely available and I was a betting man (and I’m not) I can see where the value is and would be sticking money down. It’s always wise to remember that betting companies aim to make a profit and normally do - I was married to a bookmaker’s daughter who used to work in the shops from time to time. |
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Post by batman on May 29, 2024 8:46:00 GMT
it would be plainly ludicrous if Labour were odds on in Chichester.
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 15:58:24 GMT
SOPNSadik Al-Hassan (Lab) Suneil Basu (Workers) Ash Cartman (LD) Liam Fox (Con) Alexander Kokkinoftas (Ref) Oscar Livesey-Lodwick (Grn) There is also an invalid nomination for the Women's Equality Party
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 7, 2024 15:59:35 GMT
I think Labour will give Fox a run for his money here, but Reform could be a spoiler here. I've noticed one of the signatories of the Workers Party candidate is a former Labour chair of North Somerset CLP.
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 17:13:12 GMT
Con 29.1%
Lab 28.8%
Ref 28.5%
(It's between any of these three)
LD 7.5%
Grn 5.7%
Workers 0.4% (This is not their area and the candidate is a weak public speaker)
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,542
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jun 9, 2024 17:32:45 GMT
Con 29.1% Lab 28.8% Ref 28.5% (It's between any of these three) LD 7.5% Grn 5.7% WPGB 0.4% (This is not their area and the candidate is a weak public speaker) The WPGB can’t get 0.4% of the votes because it doesn’t have a candidate in this constituency. |
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 17:33:22 GMT
Con 29.1% Lab 28.8% Ref 28.5% (It's between any of these three) LD 7.5% Grn 5.7% WPGB 0.4% (This is not their area and the candidate is a weak public speaker) The WPGB can’t get 0.4% of the votes because it doesn’t have a candidate in this constituency.
It does. Suneil Basu
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 9, 2024 17:39:40 GMT
The WPGB can’t get 0.4% of the votes because it doesn’t have a candidate in this constituency. It does. Suneil Basu
John likes us all to remember that its workers party of Britain and not Great Britain. |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jun 9, 2024 17:40:24 GMT
The WPGB can’t get 0.4% of the votes because it doesn’t have a candidate in this constituency. It does. Suneil Basu It doesn’t. Suneil Basu is not the candidate for the WPGB. He can’t possibly be the candidate for the WPGB, because the WPGB can’t have any candidates for any elections because it doesn’t exist and is not registered. If you want to know which party Mr Basu is standing for, I suggest you look at the SOPN instead of making up your own fictitious version. |
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 17:43:32 GMT
It doesn’t. Suneil Basu is not the candidate for the WPGB. He can’t possibly be the candidate for the WPGB, because the WPGB can’t have any candidates for any elections because it doesn’t exist and is not registered. If you want to know which party Mr Basu is standing for, I suggest you look at the SOPN instead of making up your own fictitious version.
Aren't Workers Party and WPGB the same? If not, I apologise but he is a candidate.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,542
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jun 9, 2024 17:48:15 GMT
It doesn’t. Suneil Basu is not the candidate for the WPGB. He can’t possibly be the candidate for the WPGB, because the WPGB can’t have any candidates for any elections because it doesn’t exist and is not registered. If you want to know which party Mr Basu is standing for, I suggest you look at the SOPN instead of making up your own fictitious version. Aren't Workers Party and WPGB the same? If not, I apologise but he is a candidate.
No. He is the candidate for the Workers Party of Britain. Accusing the WPB of being the WPGB is like accusing the CPB of being the CPGB or the CPGB(ML), or like accusing the RCP of being the RCPBML, or accusing the Liberal Democrats of being the Liberal Party, or accusing an ant of being a hippopotamus. |
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 17:49:52 GMT
Aren't Workers Party and WPGB the same? If not, I apologise but he is a candidate.
No. He is the candidate for the Workers Party of Britain. Accusing the WPB of being the WPGB is like accusing the CPB of being the CPGB or the CPGB(ML), or like accusing the RCP of being the RCPBML, or accusing the Liberal Democrats of being the Liberal Party, or accusing an ant of being a hippopotamus.
Thank you for the description. I'll alter my post.
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