Newton Abbot

[stb12]

Newton Abbot

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Jacob Cousens (Lab)
Annaliese Cude (Volt UK)
Christopher Hilditch (Ref)
Anne Marie Morris (Con)
Liam Mullone (South Devon Alliance)
Andre Sabine (Heritage)
Martin Wrigley (LD)
Pauline Wynter (Grn)

[luckyllama]

A LibDem target, now that the FT has revealed that Labour is sending its activists elsewhere, surely?

[arabesque]

Very interesting seat with the bookies.

Bet prices: Lib Dems - 21/10 (BetVictor)
                    Labour - 5/2    (Lads)
                    Cons - 9/2    (Bet365)

Several bookies have Labour odds on despite not getting a single vote on this poll.
        

[john07]

Jul 4, 2024 0:34:03 GMT arabesque said:

Very interesting seat with the bookies.

Bet prices: Lib Dems - 21/10 (BetVictor)
                    Labour - 5/2    (Lads)
                    Cons - 9/2    (Bet365)

Several bookies have Labour odds on despite not getting a single vote on this poll.
        

It’s hard to get a vote if you are not on the ballot paper!

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jul 4, 2024 0:34:03 GMT arabesque said:

Very interesting seat with the bookies.

Bet prices: Lib Dems - 21/10 (BetVictor)
                    Labour - 5/2    (Lads)
                    Cons - 9/2    (Bet365)

Several bookies have Labour odds on despite not getting a single vote on this poll.
        

5/2 definitely isn't "odds on" - "odds on" means a price better than evens.

Those seem crackers odds, presumably based on a wayward MRP model. I believe Labour's candidate is a final year student at Durham University (although his parents' home is in the area) whereas the Lib Dems' is leader of the Council... a Council that has no Labour councillors at all. Never say never, but I'd be amazed if Labour was in the mix at all, let alone favourite.

[carolus]

Jul 4, 2024 7:54:06 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Jul 4, 2024 0:34:03 GMT arabesque said:

Very interesting seat with the bookies.

Bet prices: Lib Dems - 21/10 (BetVictor)
                    Labour - 5/2    (Lads)
                    Cons - 9/2    (Bet365)

Several bookies have Labour odds on despite not getting a single vote on this poll.
        

5/2 definitely isn't "odds on" - "odds on" means a price better than evens.

Those seem crackers odds, presumably based on a wayward MRP model. I believe Labour's candidate is a final year student at Durham University (although his parents' home is in the area) whereas the Lib Dems' is leader of the Council... a Council that has no Labour councillors at all. Never say never, but I'd be amazed if Labour was in the mix at all, let alone favourite.

But the statement "Several bookies have Labour odds on" is true, as can be seen e.g. here: www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/newton-abbot

I don't see that Arabesque was claiming 21/10 was odds on.

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jul 4, 2024 8:06:03 GMT carolus said:

Jul 4, 2024 7:54:06 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

5/2 definitely isn't "odds on" - "odds on" means a price better than evens.

Those seem crackers odds, presumably based on a wayward MRP model. I believe Labour's candidate is a final year student at Durham University (although his parents' home is in the area) whereas the Lib Dems' is leader of the Council... a Council that has no Labour councillors at all. Never say never, but I'd be amazed if Labour was in the mix at all, let alone favourite.

But the statement "Several bookies have Labour odds on" is true, as can be seen e.g. here: www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/newton-abbot

I don't see that Arabesque was claiming 21/10 was odds on.

Ah, he meant "best prices" - thought "bet prices" was a strange way to put it. It's only a couple that have them odds on but still... it's basically fill your boots on LDs/Tories here. 

[cogload]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001381

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jul 4, 2024 7:54:06 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Jul 4, 2024 0:34:03 GMT arabesque said:

Very interesting seat with the bookies.

Bet prices: Lib Dems - 21/10 (BetVictor)
                    Labour - 5/2    (Lads)
                    Cons - 9/2    (Bet365)

Several bookies have Labour odds on despite not getting a single vote on this poll.
        

5/2 definitely isn't "odds on" - "odds on" means a price better than evens.

Those seem crackers odds, presumably based on a wayward MRP model. I believe Labour's candidate is a final year student at Durham University (although his parents' home is in the area) whereas the Lib Dems' is leader of the Council... a Council that has no Labour councillors at all. Never say never, but I'd be amazed if Labour was in the mix at all, let alone favourite.

Pleased with that call, overall.

Unusual for the betting favourite (with some bookies anyway) to come fourth... this was quite badly mis-priced.

[Chris from Brum]

This is the nearest equivalent to the old Teignbridge seat isn't it? That was a Lib Dem seat up to 2010 so we should always have been competitive here.

[batman]

yes, this seat is the linear successor to Teignbridge, although there are many differences between them.

[carlton43]

Jul 12, 2024 20:09:47 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Jul 4, 2024 7:54:06 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

5/2 definitely isn't "odds on" - "odds on" means a price better than evens.

Those seem crackers odds, presumably based on a wayward MRP model. I believe Labour's candidate is a final year student at Durham University (although his parents' home is in the area) whereas the Lib Dems' is leader of the Council... a Council that has no Labour councillors at all. Never say never, but I'd be amazed if Labour was in the mix at all, let alone favourite.

Pleased with that call, overall.

Unusual for the betting favourite (with some bookies anyway) to come fourth... this was quite badly mis-priced.

Bookmaking is about arithmetic, balancing the book and turning a profit.  The odds are rarely 'wrong' and soon corrected when they are 'wrong'.  Bookmaking has nothing to do with racing, horses, politics or any other subjective matters.  It is concerned with the avoidance of risk, balanced book, and making a profit.  For the bookmaker there is often 'value' in the odds set but for them, or avoidance of risk and loss.  Most statements made by punters about them or the odds are utter rubbish, as they are here.  Bookmakers are rich.  Punters are much poorer and nearly always losers. 

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jul 13, 2024 12:46:00 GMT carlton43 said:

Jul 12, 2024 20:09:47 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Pleased with that call, overall.

Unusual for the betting favourite (with some bookies anyway) to come fourth... this was quite badly mis-priced.

Bookmaking is about arithmetic, balancing the book and turning a profit.  The odds are rarely 'wrong' and soon corrected when they are 'wrong'.  Bookmaking has nothing to do with racing, horses, politics or any other subjective matters.  It is concerned with the avoidance of risk, balanced book, and making a profit.  For the bookmaker there is often 'value' in the odds set but for them, or avoidance of risk and loss.  Most statements made by punters about them or the odds are utter rubbish, as they are here.  Bookmakers are rich.  Punters are much poorer and nearly always losers. 

Chill out a bit.

There was a good betting opportunity created by Labour being favourites, which was implausible for anyone with any knowledge of the area (as was rather proved by their finishing fourth). You're quite correct that maybe the bookies made good money on the market overall. But then so did those who recognised the Labour price was exceptionally short for no-hopers in the seat.