stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:37:57 GMT
Melksham and Devizes
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 18:38:02 GMT
SOPNMalcolm Cupis (Ref) Michelle Donelan (Con) Brian Mathew (LD) Kerry Postlewhite (Lab) Catherine Read (Grn)
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Post by froome on Jun 26, 2024 21:45:44 GMT
I have opted for a Lib Dem gain here, though it will probably be close.
The constituency can be divided into 3 parts:
a) Bradford on Avon and its surrounding villages - all solidly Lib Dem
b) Melksham and surrounding villages inc Bromham and Calne South - I think these will lean towards Lib Dems, especially in Melksham itself.
c) Devizes and surrounding villages - this is the largest third, and will probably vote Conservative, but with the Lib Dems not too far distant.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 26, 2024 21:49:23 GMT
Fucking "and". Even though Melksham is a legendary place with a very infrequent train service.
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jun 26, 2024 23:01:52 GMT
Fucking "and". Even though Melksham is a legendary place with a very infrequent train service. It's the bit before the "and" that's the offensive part - there's been a constituency simply called "Devizes" for as long as I can remember! |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 27, 2024 1:40:04 GMT
Fucking "and". Even though Melksham is a legendary place with a very infrequent train service. It's the bit before the "and" that's the offensive part - there's been a constituency simply called "Devizes" for as long as I can remember! Whilst I'm inclined to agree that the name "Devizes" would have been ideal, worth remembering that this seat is almost entirely unrelated to the pre-2024 Devizes, with the actual town of Devizes itself being the only area in common. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 27, 2024 5:39:41 GMT
I think there should be a constituency somewhere called simply And just to annoy our contributor from Neath.
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Post by froome on Jun 27, 2024 7:00:25 GMT
I think there should be a constituency somewhere called simply And just to annoy our contributor from Neath. Quite. I really don't understand his obsession. This name is fine and describes the seat well. Looking on the positive side, at least it seems to have spurred on a few people to vote in the constituency poll! |
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 3, 2024 21:57:02 GMT
I have opted for a Lib Dem gain here, though it will probably be close. The constituency can be divided into 3 parts: a) Bradford on Avon and its surrounding villages - all solidly Lib Dem b) Melksham and surrounding villages inc Bromham and Calne South - I think these will lean towards Lib Dems, especially in Melksham itself. c) Devizes and surrounding villages - this is the largest third, and will probably vote Conservative, but with the Lib Dems not too far distant. The New Statesman’s ward level breakdown estimates show the Lib Dems were streets ahead of the Tories in the extremities of the seat such as Bradford on Avon and Calne but that there was not much between them in Melksham and Devizes themselves. I know they are only estimates, so caveats apply. sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/07/the-ultimate-2024-general-election-breakdown |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 4, 2024 7:44:15 GMT
I'd have thought they'd be pretty well ahead in Melksham but less so in Devizes
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 4, 2024 9:38:16 GMT
My figures (for which I have just recently posted the relevant maps) suggest a heavy Lib Dem lead (more than 2 to 1) in Bradford, a more modest but still comfortable lead in Melksham and the Tories ahead in Devizes
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 4, 2024 11:40:50 GMT
My model isn't great in Con-LD marginals* but seems to broadly follow the New Statesman's pattern - with Melksham and Devizes themselves estimated as marginal (I have Devizes as narrowly LD and Melksham as narrowly Tory but in practice it'll have been the other way round). I have the biggest Lib Dem wins in the western wards - a reasonable majority in Holt, wider in Box & Colerne and Winsley & Westwood, and safest of all in Bradford on Avon.
* looking at these estimates has made me partly appreciate why - I think my model puts too much emphasis on education when determining likely sources of LD strength. This works reasonably well in some seats, especially in the Home Counties, but isn't as useful here - and in Bath next door results in particularly unrealistic estimates like them getting just 7% in Twerton. Will have to look into tweaking how I approach this
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