CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,727
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 29, 2024 20:36:41 GMT
You think there is a possibility that the Conservative vote could fall below the Green vote? Seriously, how high do you think the Greens will poll in a squeeze seat in a General Election, where they are not in contention? I could just - just - imagine a situation where they could end up in third behind Lib Dems and Labour, however, as bad as I expect it to be for the Tories, them coming 4th here isn't even on my radar. A slim possibility admittedly, but not impossible. I've said before that our vote here is quite resilient to a squeeze, especially if the squeeze is coming from more than one party, and I will stick with that. I assume a fair amount of the Conservative vote will transfer to Reform, given their standing in the polls, and that the Lib Dems will eat into much of the rest. This isn't a seat where the Green vote disintegrates at the first sight of a tactical vote message, especially with the Tories so low in the polls. But we will see on Friday. Aye, but from 52.1% of the vote to in the low teens? I really think that is beyond unlikely. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 20:47:58 GMT
The notional 2019 result for this seat waa -
Con 23,646 (49.3%)
LD 11,251 (23.5%)
Lab 10,156 (21.2%)
Grn 2,917 (6.1%)
Taking account of current national polling Labour should be up at 29% - 30% with the LDs much as they were in 2019. The Tories would fall to circa 25% with Greens on circa 8%. Refor perhaps on 12% or so. Not clear why the LDs should be favoured - unless people are assuming a by election effect - though the boundaries were very different!
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Post by carolus on Jun 29, 2024 21:06:01 GMT
It seems pretty obvious that there is likely to be a byelection effect. Whether it will be sufficient to get us across the line, I don't know - of course Sarah Dyke chose the other half, and there are boundary changes. But the notion that it isn't a relevant event that will affect the true starting point seems somewhat implausible.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 21:09:22 GMT
It seems pretty obvious that there is likely to be a byelection effect. Whether it will be sufficient to get us across the line, I don't know - of course Sarah Dyke chose the other half, and there are boundary changes. But the notion that it isn't a relevant event that will affect the true starting point seems somewhat implausible. Though Labour is campaigning much more seriously than was the case at the by election. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,727
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 29, 2024 21:10:11 GMT
It seems pretty obvious that there is likely to be a byelection effect. Whether it will be sufficient to get us across the line, I don't know - of course Sarah Dyke chose the other half, and there are boundary changes. But the notion that it isn't a relevant event that will affect the true starting point seems somewhat implausible. Though Labour is campaigning much more seriously than was the case at the by election. As in, actually campaigning? |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 21:19:09 GMT
Though Labour is campaigning much more seriously than was the case at the by election. As in, actually campaigning? I believe so. There were arguments made at the time of last year's by election that Labour should have made a serious effort in anticipation of the new boundaries producing a seat in which the party would be competitive. That came to nothing though! It showed a lack of longterm campaigning nous. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,727
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 29, 2024 21:20:11 GMT
As in, actually campaigning? I believe so. There were arguments made at the time of last year's by election that Labour should have made a serious effort in anticipation of the new boundaries producing a seat in which the party would be competitive. That came to nothing though! It showed a lack of longterm campaigning nous. Totally agree - a really daft selection process and then a non-existent campaign. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,735
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 29, 2024 21:22:51 GMT
Perhaps froome has a view from the ground on how hard Labour have been campaigning. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 29, 2024 21:23:03 GMT
It seems pretty obvious that there is likely to be a byelection effect. Whether it will be sufficient to get us across the line, I don't know - of course Sarah Dyke chose the other half, and there are boundary changes. But the notion that it isn't a relevant event that will affect the true starting point seems somewhat implausible. Though Labour is campaigning much more seriously than was the case at the by election. So what? That doesn't affect the starting position. As I said, I don't know how seriously we're going for it, and it's clearly the less good half for us, and without the byelection I doubt it would be on the radar at all. But you can't just erase the byelection from history!
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Jun 29, 2024 21:28:14 GMT
Though Labour is campaigning much more seriously than was the case at the by election. So what? That doesn't affect the starting position. As I said, I don't know how seriously we're going for it, and it's clearly the less good half for us, and without the byelection I doubt it would be on the radar at all. But you can't just erase the byelection from history!
Indeed though the by election did not cover all the new seat. It was also on a low turnout almost 9 months ago and GEs are very different. A lot of LD - and Green - support tends to be soft - easy come easy go. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 29, 2024 21:37:06 GMT
So what? That doesn't affect the starting position. As I said, I don't know how seriously we're going for it, and it's clearly the less good half for us, and without the byelection I doubt it would be on the radar at all. But you can't just erase the byelection from history!
Indeed though the by election did not cover all the new seat. It was also on a low turnout almost 9 months ago and GEs are very different. A lot of LD - and Green - support tends to be soft - easy come easy go. Yes, some of those are true. But your original contention was that it was unclear why the Lib Dems should be favoured, and my response is that even on the 2019 notionals we were second, and the byelection will have improved the position, so I would be somewhat suprised if we were not second. And as much as we sometimes lose seats in GEs that we won in byelections, I think in very few does the vote return immediately to pre-byelection levels.
And nine months is not exactly an eternity!
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Jun 29, 2024 21:41:31 GMT
Though Labour is campaigning much more seriously than was the case at the by election. But are they campaigning harder (and better) than the Lib Dems who are clearly working it pretty hard? You've made a similar and not unconvincing point in Didcot and Wantage. Presumably if you think that seat is close then you must feel just as confident about this one, given there is no worse a 2017 notional than Didcot for the unwind you cited there - enough that you thought uniform national swing was worth mentioning earlier in the thread. |
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Post by froome on Jun 30, 2024 5:15:18 GMT
Perhaps froome has a view from the ground on how hard Labour have been campaigning. will have a better idea, as he is the Labour candidate here! As I said previously, from what I have heard from those who live in the constituency, it is the Lib Dems who are working hardest. I'm not a fan of the Lib Dem's campaigning methods, but I do recognise that they can be effective, and I suspect they will be here. And looking at the constituency as a whole, the Lib Dems will be seen as the main choice by much of the area by those who wish to ensure the Conservatives don't win. There are only small pockets, especially those in the south of B&NES, which are much more inclined to vote Labour. Frome was once a strongly Labour town (as my friend who grew up there likes to remind me of), but that was 50 or more years ago now, and it is a very different place now. Where the Green vote goes will be crucial, and from what I'm hearing, it is staying with us. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 5:16:33 GMT
The Green result at the Somerton & Frome by-election was the highest they'd ever got - was that because Green voters were confident the Lib Dems would win and wanted to vote for their actual party of choice? That could be a problem for Labour and the Lib Dems if a historic Labour or Lib Dem win is assumed in every seat.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Jun 30, 2024 11:09:19 GMT
The JIL Partners poll in the Sunday Times has this seat -
Lab 31%
Con 23%
LD 22%
Ref 15%
Grn 10%
That might give labour some ammunition to try to squeeze the LD and Green vote.
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Post by carolus on Jun 30, 2024 17:02:37 GMT
The JIL Partners poll in the Sunday Times has this seat - Lab 31% Con 23% LD 22% Ref 15% Grn 10% That might give labour some ammunition to try to squeeze the LD and Green vote. I'm not sure that's how squeezing works. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 30, 2024 18:55:25 GMT
I've voted for Con Hold. There's a realistic possibility of the LD/Lab/Green split resulting in an amusingly unexpected Conservative victory here.
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Post by aidypiez on Jul 11, 2024 13:04:26 GMT
The JIL Partners poll in the Sunday Times has this seat - Lab 31% Con 23% LD 22% Ref 15% Grn 10% That might give labour some ammunition to try to squeeze the LD and Green vote. Labour and Liberal Democrat shares comically wrong in the end. Not bad for the other 3 parties |
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