Frome and East Somerset

[stb12]

Frome and East Somerset

[haroldthepolitician]

Honestly this seat could be incredibly interesting - Taking in some Labour leaning parts of NES and losing a good portion of its more rural parts in the south could make this seat and 3 way marginal. Really don't think any 3 of the major parties are a particularly clear favourite. I also imagine greens will get along the lines of about 15% so relatively high given Frome now makes up a larger portion of the seat. If i had to put numbers down, id go

Liberal Democrat - 29%
Conservative - 28%
Labour - 23%
Green - 14%
Reform - 6%

[nobodyimportant]

May 28, 2024 20:12:19 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

Honestly this seat could be incredibly interesting - Taking in some Labour leaning parts of NES and losing a good portion of its more rural parts in the south could make this seat and 3 way marginal. Really don't think any 3 of the major parties are a particularly clear favourite. I also imagine greens will get along the lines of about 15% so relatively high given Frome now makes up a larger portion of the seat. If i had to put numbers down, id go

Liberal Democrat - 29%
Conservative - 28%
Labour - 23%
Green - 14%
Reform - 6%

Do you not think that the Greens will get squeezed to oblivion here?

[haroldthepolitician]

May 28, 2024 21:11:59 GMT nobodyimportant said:

May 28, 2024 20:12:19 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

Honestly this seat could be incredibly interesting - Taking in some Labour leaning parts of NES and losing a good portion of its more rural parts in the south could make this seat and 3 way marginal. Really don't think any 3 of the major parties are a particularly clear favourite. I also imagine greens will get along the lines of about 15% so relatively high given Frome now makes up a larger portion of the seat. If i had to put numbers down, id go

Liberal Democrat - 29%
Conservative - 28%
Labour - 23%
Green - 14%
Reform - 6%

Do you not think that the Greens will get squeezed to oblivion here?

I wouldn't be too sure - their vote held up VERY well in the by-election (actually gaining 600 votes from the general). Imagine alot of it is dissatisfied tories who aren't too worried of Labour winning but wouldn't want to vote for them.

[froome]

May 28, 2024 21:11:59 GMT nobodyimportant said:

May 28, 2024 20:12:19 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

Honestly this seat could be incredibly interesting - Taking in some Labour leaning parts of NES and losing a good portion of its more rural parts in the south could make this seat and 3 way marginal. Really don't think any 3 of the major parties are a particularly clear favourite. I also imagine greens will get along the lines of about 15% so relatively high given Frome now makes up a larger portion of the seat. If i had to put numbers down, id go

Liberal Democrat - 29%
Conservative - 28%
Labour - 23%
Green - 14%
Reform - 6%

Do you not think that the Greens will get squeezed to oblivion here?

You obviously don't know Frome.

Also, squeezed by who? Both Labour and Lib Dems feel they have a chance here, although Lib Dems are obviously favourites. If you are being told by two parties that they need your vote to win, you are less likely to be squeezed by either.

I'm not convinced the Conservatives will even manage 28% myself.

[batman]

I don't think that comment is entirely fair. There are certainly some towns where the Greens figure strongly in local elections, and enjoy good natural support, but where their vote comes under considerable pressure in general elections - Stroud is an obvious example. It is perfectly possible to have a decent knowledge of Frome (which I myself certainly don't have) and still believe that in the context of a general election the Green vote will get squeezed by the Lib Dems or even Labour who do have a bit of a tradition in the town.

[haroldthepolitician]

May 29, 2024 8:43:39 GMT batman said:

I don't think that comment is entirely fair. There are certainly some towns where the Greens figure strongly in local elections, and enjoy good natural support, but where their vote comes under considerable pressure in general elections - Stroud is an obvious example. It is perfectly possible to have a decent knowledge of Frome (which I myself certainly don't have) and still believe that in the context of a general election the Green vote will get squeezed by the Lib Dems or even Labour who do have a bit of a tradition in the town.

I think from the result of the by-election though this is unlike - there was a clear contendor to beat the tories and the greens held up fine again, even gaining a couple votes. Difficult to squeeze when I imagine both parties will be going for that vote.

[r34t]

May 29, 2024 12:52:32 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

May 29, 2024 8:43:39 GMT batman said:

I don't think that comment is entirely fair. There are certainly some towns where the Greens figure strongly in local elections, and enjoy good natural support, but where their vote comes under considerable pressure in general elections - Stroud is an obvious example. It is perfectly possible to have a decent knowledge of Frome (which I myself certainly don't have) and still believe that in the context of a general election the Green vote will get squeezed by the Lib Dems or even Labour who do have a bit of a tradition in the town.

I think from the result of the by-election though this is unlike - there was a clear contendor to beat the tories and the greens held up fine again, even gaining a couple votes. Difficult to squeeze when I imagine both parties will be going for that vote.

The Greens may well get a good vote in Frome, there are certainly people who will not vote anything else. But the turnout will be about 70%+ at the GE compared to 44% at the byelection. The dedicated & committed Greens won't have sat at home. Less Greens in the 30% who did stay at home imho.

Genuine 3 (not 4) way marginal.

[haroldthepolitician]

May 29, 2024 13:05:12 GMT r34t said:

May 29, 2024 12:52:32 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

I think from the result of the by-election though this is unlike - there was a clear contendor to beat the tories and the greens held up fine again, even gaining a couple votes. Difficult to squeeze when I imagine both parties will be going for that vote.

The Greens may well get a good vote in Frome, there are certainly people who will not vote anything else. But the turnout will be about 70%+ at the GE compared to 44% at the byelection. The dedicated & committed Greens won't have sat at home. Less Greens in the 30% who did stay at home imho.

Genuine 3 (not 4) way marginal.

Yeah, wasn't suggesting a 4 way marginal that would be insane (and cool from a psephology perspective)!

I'd not turnout amongst greens increased in the by-election. 3200 votes to 3900 in the by-election so possibly symbolic of a wider swing in the old seat - new seat should also be more favourable for them!

[r34t]

May 29, 2024 13:21:17 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

May 29, 2024 13:05:12 GMT r34t said:

The Greens may well get a good vote in Frome, there are certainly people who will not vote anything else. But the turnout will be about 70%+ at the GE compared to 44% at the byelection. The dedicated & committed Greens won't have sat at home. Less Greens in the 30% who did stay at home imho.

Genuine 3 (not 4) way marginal.

Yeah, wasn't suggesting a 4 way marginal that would be insane (and cool from a psephology perspective)!

I'd not turnout amongst greens increased in the by-election. 3200 votes to 3900 in the by-election so possibly symbolic of a wider swing in the old seat - new seat should also be more favourable for them!

Not sure about the new boundaries being more favourable, the Greens didn't get much support in the Somer Valley in the 2023 BaNES local elections, but we'll see I guess. 

Anyway. Greens will all be taking day trips to Bristol rather than Radstock I think.

apart from froome 

[froome]

May 29, 2024 13:31:43 GMT r34t said:

May 29, 2024 13:21:17 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

Yeah, wasn't suggesting a 4 way marginal that would be insane (and cool from a psephology perspective)!

I'd not turnout amongst greens increased in the by-election. 3200 votes to 3900 in the by-election so possibly symbolic of a wider swing in the old seat - new seat should also be more favourable for them!

Not sure about the new boundaries being more favourable, the Greens didn't get much support in the Somer Valley in the 2023 BaNES local elections, but we'll see I guess. 

Anyway. Greens will all be taking day trips to Bristol rather than Radstock I think.

apart from froome 

Must admit I'm perplexed by your last comment. Care to explain?

[r34t]

May 30, 2024 4:39:23 GMT froome said:

May 29, 2024 13:31:43 GMT r34t said:

Not sure about the new boundaries being more favourable, the Greens didn't get much support in the Somer Valley in the 2023 BaNES local elections, but we'll see I guess. 

Anyway. Greens will all be taking day trips to Bristol rather than Radstock I think.

apart from froome  

Must admit I'm perplexed by your last comment. Care to explain?

as you are already in Radstock ? sorry if that was a bit obscure 

[froome]

May 30, 2024 7:15:04 GMT r34t said:

May 30, 2024 4:39:23 GMT froome said:

Must admit I'm perplexed by your last comment. Care to explain?

as you are already in Radstock ? sorry if that was a bit obscure 

No I'm not.

You are obviously confusing me for someone else (presumably our parliamentary candidate in Bath, who lives in Radstock).

[r34t]

May 30, 2024 7:20:18 GMT froome said:

May 30, 2024 7:15:04 GMT r34t said:

as you are already in Radstock ? sorry if that was a bit obscure 

No I'm not.

You are obviously confusing me for someone else (presumably our parliamentary candidate in Bath, who lives in Radstock).

Sorry, yes I was

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Martin Dimery (Grn)
Gavin Heathcote (Ind)
Shaun Hughes (Ind)
Robin Moss (Lab)
Anna Sabine (LD)
David Swain (Ref)
Lucy Trimnell (Con)

[greenhert]

Could someone create a poll for this seat please? The political mix of this new seat makes it very interesting indeed-there are outside chances of either a Conservative hold due to split opposition or a Green gain-Frome is not the only town in this constituency with Green Party potential.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Another good candidate for stupidest "and" of the lot. Name a large town in East Somerset: Frome. Should be called Frome or East Somerset.

[froome]

I have now opted for a Lib Dem win here. Originally I thought Labour would be most likely to take it, but from all I have heard, it looks to me that the Lib Dems will be successful, eating into much of the Conservative vote. I still expect our by-election vote to withstand the unraveling you would normally expect in a general election, and for the Conservative vote to collapse, possibly leaving them below the Greens.

I haven't had a chance to visit the constituency in a while, but might try to do so before next Thursday.

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 29, 2024 11:25:00 GMT froome said:

I have now opted for a Lib Dem win here. Originally I thought Labour would be most likely to take it, but from all I have heard, it looks to me that the Lib Dems will be successful, eating into much of the Conservative vote. I still expect our by-election vote to withstand the unraveling you would normally expect in a general election, and for the Conservative vote to collapse, possibly leaving them below the Greens.

I haven't had a chance to visit the constituency in a while, but might try to do so before next Thursday.

You think there is a possibility that the Conservative vote could fall below the Green vote? Seriously, how high do you think the Greens will poll in a squeeze seat in a General Election, where they are not in contention? I could just - just - imagine a situation where they could end up in third behind Lib Dems and Labour, however, as bad as I expect it to be for the Tories, them coming 4th here isn't even on my radar.

[froome]

Jun 29, 2024 20:08:50 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jun 29, 2024 11:25:00 GMT froome said:

I have now opted for a Lib Dem win here. Originally I thought Labour would be most likely to take it, but from all I have heard, it looks to me that the Lib Dems will be successful, eating into much of the Conservative vote. I still expect our by-election vote to withstand the unraveling you would normally expect in a general election, and for the Conservative vote to collapse, possibly leaving them below the Greens.

I haven't had a chance to visit the constituency in a while, but might try to do so before next Thursday.

You think there is a possibility that the Conservative vote could fall below the Green vote? Seriously, how high do you think the Greens will poll in a squeeze seat in a General Election, where they are not in contention? I could just - just - imagine a situation where they could end up in third behind Lib Dems and Labour, however, as bad as I expect it to be for the Tories, them coming 4th here isn't even on my radar.

A slim possibility admittedly, but not impossible. I've said before that our vote here is quite resilient to a squeeze, especially if the squeeze is coming from more than one party, and I will stick with that. I assume a fair amount of the Conservative vote will transfer to Reform, given their standing in the polls, and that the Lib Dems will eat into much of the rest. This isn't a seat where the Green vote disintegrates at the first sight of a tactical vote message, especially with the Tories so low in the polls. But we will see on Friday.