Forest of Dean

[stb12]

Forest of Dean

[carolus]

www.fdean.gov.uk/media/us5i5w3h/statement-of-persons-nominated-notice-of-poll.pdf

6 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK, Socialist Labour

[batman]

This seat has received remarkably little attention considering. The defending Tory candidate is a fairly high-profile cabinet minister who entered parliament in 2005 by gaining the seat from Labour. Demographic change has certainly made this a much less Labour-friendly seat than it used to be, and was already very apparent when Harper was first elected - Labour enjoyed a swing of well below average in winning in 1997, and the swing to the Tories in 2001 was also above the national average. The largest town (I think?) of Lydney has been transformed from a Labour stronghold into, basically, a Conservative one in a fairly short time. But Labour still has some definite strongholds in the long-defunct coalfield and requires a swing of only just over 15%, which equates to a national lead of about 19% - i.e., broadly in line with national polls. I've heard that Labour didn't target this seat, but that it may be that resources are belatedly being deployed in seats just like this, so while I still incline slightly towards Con hold it surely is worth watching. It's always been an unique & interesting seat.

[froome]

At the last local elections in 2023 the Green Party took the most votes and now lead the council. In those elections, much of the Labour vote has now shifted their way, with Labour polling only 8% in that election.

So if Labour want to win this, they are going to have to squeeze an awful lot of Green voters their way. Unfortunately for them, the Green candidate Chris Macfarling is a strong and popular campaigner and it doesn't look to me that there is enough evidence of that vote moving towards Labour.

I suspect a fair bit of the Conservative vote here will head towards Reform, though on the eastern edge of the Forest it is more likely to stay blue.

Overall, this could be a fascinating contest,and I have no idea how it might all play out.

[kevinf]

Labour stood very few council candidates last time out, which points to poor organisation on the ground. I remember the Labour MP elected in ‘97, Diana Organ, who was wonderful.

[heslingtonian]

This could be a genuine four way contest between the Conservatives, Labour, Reform and the Greens. I can see the Conservatives winning on about 30% of the vote with not as great a swing due to the demographic trends previously alluded to. My prediction is a Conservative majority of about 2k.

[cogload]

Mark Harper is not up there in the pantheon of transport ministers. Unless you drive an SUV.

[Chris from Brum]

Can't say that I know the Forest well, apart from a few visits to Cinderford RFC as an away supporter from Moseley. It's not an attractive town, to be polite. Apparently one of our supporters asked a local about the local nightlife, only to be told "this *is* the local nightlife",.which says a lot, I think.

Cinderford were relegated at end of last season, so I shan't have that pleasure again for at least twelve months.

[froome]

Jun 30, 2024 19:10:47 GMT heslingtonian said:

This could be a genuine four way contest between the Conservatives, Labour, Reform and the Greens. I can see the Conservatives winning on about 30% of the vote with not as great a swing due to the demographic trends previously alluded to. My prediction is a Conservative majority of about 2k.

I suspect you may well be right. We won't be winning, but I can see us putting ourselves into a position where we may be able to do so next time.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 30, 2024 20:19:20 GMT froome said:

Jun 30, 2024 19:10:47 GMT heslingtonian said:

This could be a genuine four way contest between the Conservatives, Labour, Reform and the Greens. I can see the Conservatives winning on about 30% of the vote with not as great a swing due to the demographic trends previously alluded to. My prediction is a Conservative majority of about 2k.

I suspect you may well be right. We won't be winning, but I can see us putting ourselves into a position where we may be able to do so next time.

I think this is possible, simply because it fits the bill of a constituency where no other party is especially strong, and which is deeply quirky. Anyone who can establish themselves as the Forest of Dean Independence Party could do it. If the place was just a little further to the West I wouldn't rule out Plaid; but in many ways I think the Green Party are the national party who might find it worth their while putting in the effort here and are sufficient of a tabula rasa to appeal across the board.

But it's a seat which I think might be a two-edged sword, precisely because of the quirkiness of the place. Put bluntly, your typical Green voter in Brighton Pavilion and/or Bristol Central (if there is such a thing) seems to me to have virtually nothing in common with your average resident of Cinderford (if there is etc.) I don't think the well-heeled pylon-objector of Waveney Valley would fit in either. This is a small-c conservative place but the things that are being conserved are distinctive to the Forest.

What would really work here would be a local variant of Jason Zadrozny.

[Deleted]

Yes, I think this could be one of those places where the Green local offering is much more popular than their national one.

For what it's worth, Labour have been doing some work in this seat in the areas around Cinderford (with Green cllrs) and are very happy with the returns

[Deleted]

Bundle check....

[Deleted]

Labour gain!

[The Bishop]

Ngl, thought this one would never go Labour again. And there were persistent reports the party weren't really working it either!

Btw wrt to batman's post above - it is widely thought the notionals were out for the 1997 GE; Labour actually had a bigger increase here than the "official" figure and a smaller one in Tewkesbury (which took in a sizeable element of the old Gloucestershire West seat)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Hopefully having a Labour MP will mean some sort of kick to get the CLP's local government election campaigning working.

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2024 18:46:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Ngl, thought this one would never go Labour again. And there were persistent reports the party weren't really working it either!

Btw wrt to batman 's post above - it is widely thought the notionals were out for the 1997 GE; Labour actually had a bigger increase here than the "official" figure and a smaller one in Tewkesbury (which took in a sizeable element of the old Gloucestershire West seat)

I think they only started it very late on. Cinderford, Berry Hill, Coleford, Lydney, and most of the Forest proper is still fairly promising territory for Labour but you need to work it.

Incidentally I am adding this to my body of evidence that we targetted far too high up our target list at least initially, and should have put effort in e.g. here and Bridgwater rather than Stroud and Plymouth

[Sibboleth]

Yes, this has been a place where a defeatist mentality had become the problem. Well, that's gone now. Incidentally this means that Labour have won West Gloucestershire/Forest of Dean at every election that it has won from opposition.

[batman]

It seems that it's one of those areas where gentrification/demographically-derived improvement in the Conservative position may have gone so far, but no further. Some parts have swung quite sharply to the right, but some small towns & villages still have an entirely working-class social composition & can still be won quite heavily by Labour (if it bothers to stand candidates!). I remember some years ago that the former Somerset coalfield not so very far away also saw Labour fail to contest some ex-mining villages in local elections, perhaps the organisation has improved now (judging from Rees-Mogg's defeat it has).

[Pete Whitehead]

Rees Moggs seat doesn't contain much of the Somerset coalfied now as MIsomeer Norton & radstock were moved to the Frome seat. (I suppose he did technically gain part of the Bristol coalfield..)

[andrewp]

It sort of feels like that if Labour are only winning by 278 votes in this election, then having the MP is a golden opportunity to get their act together, but if they don’t then at best it will be a seat they can win when winning Big majorities only. If Labour win a 170 seat majority, it would seem odd to me if it didn’t include the Forest of Dean.

I also wonder whether the south end of the seat is attracting a few more commuters to Bristol, which depending on what type of commuters they are, may have reversed the political shift a little bit.