Chippenham

[stb12]

Chippenham

[binky]

Do we fancy a Liberal gain here?

[tonyhil]

Well, I fancy one, but I don't think we'll get one.

[sinisterdexter]

Reasonable chance I would think - recent local history and good by-election results over the last couple of years

[sinisterdexter]

Incidentally, Chippenham is a lovely place, and a great base to use to train in to Bath and Bristol

[Foggy]

Jun 5, 2024 11:20:35 GMT binky said:

Do we fancy a Liberal gain here?

In the event there is a Liberal Party candidate, they'll be highly unlikely to get anywhere near winning the seat. 

[johnloony]

Jun 6, 2024 1:06:38 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 5, 2024 11:20:35 GMT binky said:

Do we fancy a Liberal gain here?

In the event there is a Liberal Party candidate, they'll be highly unlikely to get anywhere near winning the seat. 

They only have 13 candidates listed on their website so far, none anywhere near Chippenham

liberal.org.uk/

[cogload]

Davey here today so someone in the LD hierarchy thinks it's on.

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Declan Baseley (Grn)
Ed Deedigan (Ind)
Sarah Gibson (LD)
Benjamin Ginsburg (Ref)
Nic Puntis (Con)
Ravi Venkatesh (Lab)

[alderman]

I have heard Liberal Democrat’s are very optimistic about this seat and activists from South West Wiltshire have been campaigning here for Sarah Gibson who has been running a very active campaign.

[batman]

They've won it before & I would be fairly surprised if they didn't win it this time. It's their best bet in Wiltshire & they don't need to worry about nearby Bath which is safe for them

[andrewp]

I’m not saying the LDs won’t win this, they may well, but just a reminder that the new boundaries are a bit less favourable for the LDs than the old boundaries. The old boundaries were just about the optimum for an LD seat in Wiltshire. I don’t think the LDs would have won on these boundaries in 2010.

[carolus]

There's also no shortage of other competitive seats nearby.

[alderman]

Jun 22, 2024 9:53:37 GMT carolus said:

There's also no shortage of other competitive seats nearby.

Melksham & Devizes should be very competitive but as far as the other 3 Wiltshire seats and the 2 Swindon seats are concerned, Liberal Democrats are a distant third or fourth.

[carolus]

Jun 22, 2024 11:52:19 GMT alderman said:

Jun 22, 2024 9:53:37 GMT carolus said:

There's also no shortage of other competitive seats nearby.

Melksham & Devizes should be very competitive but as far as the other 3 Wiltshire seats and the 2 Swindon seats are concerned, Liberal Democrats are a distant third or fourth.

I wasn't thinking of Wiltshire! Frome & East Somerset is next door, as is South Cotswolds. Thornbury & Yate is only barely not. And of course then many of the other Somerset seats are not a million miles away. I don't know which ones the focus is on - just that there are a reasonable number of options.

[froome]

Jun 22, 2024 8:35:55 GMT andrewp said:

I’m not saying the LDs won’t win this, they may well, but just a reminder that the new boundaries are a bit less favourable for the LDs than the old boundaries. The old boundaries were just about the optimum for an LD seat in Wiltshire. I don’t think the LDs would have won on these boundaries in 2010.

Indeed. None of the Wiltshire seats have been drawn that favourably for the Lib Dems and in more normal circumstances the Conservatives should win all those outside of Swindon. However, in current circumstances I expect the Lib Dems to win here and probably also in Melksham & Devizes.

[cogload]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001168

Though different boundaries with the revived name, the new MP comfortably beats Duncan Hames' majority.

[evergreenadam]

Jul 12, 2024 17:52:20 GMT cogload said:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001168

Though different boundaries with the revived name, the new MP comfortably beats Duncan Hames' majority.

The old Chippenham seat at this election would have been very comfortably Lib Dem.