Cheltenham

[nyx]

Jul 20, 2024 12:28:09 GMT heslingtonian said:

One wonders if Chalk might be tempted to stand in the North Cotswolds seat at the next General Election as presumably this will be Geoffrey Clifton-Brown's final term and that would be a relatively safe seat for him to take on if he decides to return to frontline politics.

The Conservatives only won North Cotswolds by 4.7%; by simple percentage majority it would be eighth on the national list of Lib Dem target seats in the next election, and there's a large Labour vote that can probably be squeezed.

I wouldn't be inclined to describe it as relatively safe unless the Conservatives' national fortunes have significantly improved by the next election; it's one of the more marginal seats that they still hold. Still an option for Chalk if he wants to return to parliament of course.

[froome]

Jul 31, 2024 22:15:08 GMT nyx said:

Jul 20, 2024 12:28:09 GMT heslingtonian said:

One wonders if Chalk might be tempted to stand in the North Cotswolds seat at the next General Election as presumably this will be Geoffrey Clifton-Brown's final term and that would be a relatively safe seat for him to take on if he decides to return to frontline politics.

The Conservatives only won North Cotswolds by 4.7%; by simple percentage majority it would be eighth on the national list of Lib Dem target seats in the next election, and there's a large Labour vote that can probably be squeezed.

I wouldn't be inclined to describe it as relatively safe unless the Conservatives' national fortunes have significantly improved by the next election; it's one of the more marginal seats that they still hold. Still an option for Chalk if he wants to return to parliament of course.

The only Conservative seat in the South Western region that could now be described as safe is Christchurch. In terms of majorities, North Cotswolds was the third safest, but I suspect those where Labour are the main challengers, like the remaining Conservative Wiltshire seats, will be safer than the North Cotswolds, where the Lib Dems are the obvious challengers.

[heslingtonian]

Obviously this is all assuming the Conservatives are in a stronger position by the time of the next General Election. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption given this year's General Election was their worst result of all time however I do appreciate it's not a certainty.

[The Bishop]

And even then, the question is how much stronger. Only a modest improvement (as in 2001, say) and some against the trend losses will certainly remain possible.

(come to think of it, when was the last GE when the Tories lost no seats at all? Though 1979 was close with only Glasgow Cathcart going against them I think)

[heslingtonian]

Well going back to my original point, if Chalk does decide he wants to return to Parliament (I have no idea if he does), North Cotswolds would probably be the most logical seat for him to be selected for assuming GCB decides to retire at the next GE which is likely as he'll be in his mid 70s. Certainly a lot more logical than him trying to regain Cheltenham.

[stb12]

Aug 1, 2024 11:22:52 GMT The Bishop said:

And even then, the question is how much stronger. Only a modest improvement (as in 2001, say) and some against the trend losses will certainly remain possible.

(come to think of it, when was the last GE when the Tories lost no seats at all? Though 1979 was close with only Glasgow Cathcart going against them I think)

It was Glasgow Cathcart and I think three by-election wins won back by Labour, however you decide to count them

[stb12]

In 2010 I believe they only lost Wells and Eastbourne to the Lib Dems

[The Bishop]

In this context losing seats you won at byelections doesn't count, no.

What happened in the 1950s elections and 1970? I can't actually think of any Tory losses in the latter (NI excepted anyway)

[iainbhx]

Aug 1, 2024 11:57:10 GMT The Bishop said:

In this context losing seats you won at byelections doesn't count, no.

What happened in the 1950s elections and 1970? I can't actually think of any Tory losses in the latter (NI excepted anyway)

Don't think the Tories lost any seats in 1970 (except by-election gains) or 1951.

[mrtoad]

In 1951 the Ulster Unionist/ Conservative lost Belfast West to the Irish Labour Party.

Boundary changes make 1955 a bit hard to judge but there's certainly SW Norfolk (Lab gain from Con). Reading would probably have been a notional Labour gain too for Ian Mikardo.

There was a bit of cross-traffic in 1959 - the first postwar election which had a strong regional skew with a swing to Labour in parts of the NW and Scotland (Oldham East was a Lab gain).

Other than Ulster Unionists (North Antrim, Fermanagh & South Tyrone and confirmation of the by-election in Mid Ulster) and by-election recoveries, there weren't any Conservative losses in 1970.

[hullenedge]

Aug 1, 2024 18:15:09 GMT mrtoad said:

In 1951 the Ulster Unionist/ Conservative lost Belfast West to the Irish Labour Party.

Boundary changes make 1955 a bit hard to judge but there's certainly SW Norfolk (Lab gain from Con). Reading would probably have been a notional Labour gain too for Ian Mikardo.

There was a bit of cross-traffic in 1959 - the first postwar election which had a strong regional skew with a swing to Labour in parts of the NW and Scotland (Oldham East was a Lab gain).

Other than Ulster Unionists (North Antrim, Fermanagh & South Tyrone and confirmation of the by-election in Mid Ulster) and by-election recoveries, there weren't any Conservative losses in 1970.

A fair possibility that Glasgow Provan is a notional Labour gain in 1955. The new housing estates were moving in that direction.

[iainbhx]

1959 was of course famously when Jeremy Thorpe won North Devon from the Tories.

[greenhert]

Aug 1, 2024 11:50:30 GMT stb12 said:

In 2010 I believe they only lost Wells and Eastbourne to the Lib Dems

And notionally Solihull due to boundary changes.

The last time Labour lost no seats at a general election was back in 1997, on a related note. Before this year, he last time the Liberal Democrats and their predecessors lost no seats at a general election was in 1983.

[YL]

Aug 3, 2024 7:45:45 GMT greenhert said:

The last time the Liberal Democrats and their predecessors lost no seats at a general election was in 1983.

2024, surely?

[greenhert]

Aug 3, 2024 7:59:40 GMT YL said:

Aug 3, 2024 7:45:45 GMT greenhert said:

The last time the Liberal Democrats and their predecessors lost no seats at a general election was in 1983.

2024, surely?

I meant before this year.

[heslingtonian]

When was the last time the Conservatives didn't gain a seat at a General Election if we are counting regains from by-elections ie Christchurch in 1997?

[Pete Whitehead]

1966

[sanders]

Aug 4, 2024 21:43:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

1966

Incorrect, I think. The Conservatives retained their gain from the 1965 Cities of London & Westminster by-election (Conservative gain from Speaker).

[batman]

that would not normally regarded as counting as it had been a Conservative Speaker (Sir Harry Hylton-Foster)

[sanders]

Aug 5, 2024 18:20:40 GMT batman said:

that would not normally regarded as counting as it had been a Conservative Speaker (Sir Harry Hylton-Foster)

He was elected as an independent in the 1964 election. I know you’re correct but I just thought I’d point it out.