stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:32:57 GMT
Central Devon
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 16:21:06 GMT
SOPNJeffrey Leeks (Ref) Ollie Pearson (Lab) Arthur Price (Ind) Mel Stride (Con) Gill Westcott (Grn) Mark Wooding (LD)
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 14, 2024 19:00:11 GMT
Looks like the Lib Dems have brought out a bar chart to claim they're the closest contenders despite finishing comfortably behind Labour here in recent general elections.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 14, 2024 19:28:14 GMT
Looks like the Lib Dems have brought out a bar chart to claim they're the closest contenders despite finishing comfortably behind Labour here in recent general elections. The Central Devon Lab vote is a strange thing which must only really exists at general elections. It's understandable to cast doubt on it, I think it will appear again, but I suspect the Libdems could give them a run for their money. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 14, 2024 19:37:56 GMT
That’s a perfectly accurate bar chart, and of course Central Devon was a tight Con/ LD contest when first notionally created, before the slightly unlikely sizeable Labour general election vote appeared. Central Devon feels like one of the seats that might be ripe for a Tory hold with 35-40% this year.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 14, 2024 19:38:43 GMT
Central Devon Liberal Democrats got a lengthy mention on Radio 4's 'More or Less' this week for their previous dodgy barchart. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00202g3 from 4:20 if you want to hear the gory details. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 14, 2024 19:54:07 GMT
Central Devon Liberal Democrats got a lengthy mention on Radio 4's 'More or Less' this week for their previous dodgy barchart. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00202g3 from 4:20 if you want to hear the gory details. Listeners should also make sure they hear through to the end of the article when Labour's bogus claims in Eastleigh are exposed. Based on figures that the BBC say they can't even find the source of. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jul 2, 2024 15:34:06 GMT
Ohh...may we have a poll here stb12..? Lab and con s'il vous plait? |
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Post by froome on Jul 2, 2024 15:37:55 GMT
Ohh...may we have a poll here stb12..? Lab and con s'il vous plait? You have smelt something in the wind? It's not inconceivable but would be one of the shocks of the night if it did happen. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jul 2, 2024 15:44:06 GMT
Ohh...may we have a poll here stb12..? Lab and con s'il vous plait? You have smelt something in the wind? It's not inconceivable but would be one of the shocks of the night if it did happen. A hunch and I will probably be well out but am getting feedback from people at the sarf end of the constituency... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 18:08:24 GMT
Exminster and Crediton are very much commuter hubs of Exeter, which will be of great help to Labour. Throughout much of the constituency, house prices are much lower than in Exeter, too. And public transport links from Okehampton have recently improved a great amount (admittedly that could justifiably be perceived as a success story of the current Government).
Anecdotal but from my experience the incomers to this constituency are not the sort which will make the Conservatives happy. Young, educated commuters or remote workers who care greatly about countryside access, the environment, and perhaps a somewhat idealistic view of small town/village life which matches visions of 15 minute cities which the current government rallies against. Admittedly, I'm not sure if this group makes up that much of the electorate.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Jul 2, 2024 18:48:24 GMT
It seems to me that Labour winning here might be shocking - it looks like a safe rural tory shire seat - but not surprising. Almost every model has Labour winning it, and the surprisingly strong Labour vote here has been commented on several times before.
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Post by froome on Jul 3, 2024 8:39:34 GMT
I've been convinced. Another one on the Labour pile.
Incidentally, Gill Westcott, the Green candidate, would be an excellent MP if she ever had a real chance to get elected.
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Post by batman on Jul 3, 2024 9:18:25 GMT
I'm sticking with Con hold but would not be astonished if I turned out to be wrong. This seat appears to have been consistently in play for the last year or so despite complete lack of Labour councillors.
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Post by Ruggerman on Jul 3, 2024 13:27:10 GMT
Mel Stride cut a lonely figure on Saturday when he was going to door-to-door in my village. Is it usual to have a member of cabinet with no supporters alongside, so close to polling day?
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Post by kevinf on Jul 3, 2024 13:28:04 GMT
Mel Stride cut a lonely figure on Saturday when he was going to door-to-door in my village. Is it usual to have a member of cabinet with no supporters alongside so close to polling day? It’s not usual even for a candidate in a no-hope seat… |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2024 6:27:31 GMT
I never really bought into the idea of this being a Labour seat (in fact I literally bought into the outcome which occurred). Of course it very nearly happened, but most of Labuour's increase in support had occurred in 2017/19
Strange seat
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 6:28:46 GMT
I never really bought into the idea of this being a Labour seat (in fact I literally bought into the outcome which occurred). Of course it very nearly happened, but most of Labuour's increase in support had occurred in 2017/19 Strange seat Exeter effect |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jul 6, 2024 17:59:16 GMT
Me-owwwww
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 6, 2024 18:03:53 GMT
Respect to Mel Stride, quite possibly the only member of the cabinet who stood up and fought for the government of which he was a member.
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