Bridgwater

[YL]

Jun 26, 2024 8:58:56 GMT froome said:

Jun 26, 2024 8:02:17 GMT batman said:

Labour will definitely win in Bridgwater town, but have very limited potential elsewhere.

No doubt there will be shock and horror in the media about how, even if Labour win 450-500 seats, they still can't win Bridgwater.

I think that if Labour win 500 seats, they will win Bridgwater.

[birkinabe]

Jun 26, 2024 11:07:09 GMT YL said:

Jun 26, 2024 8:58:56 GMT froome said:

No doubt there will be shock and horror in the media about how, even if Labour win 450-500 seats, they still can't win Bridgwater.

I think that if Labour win 500 seats, they will win Bridgwater.

Although I realise that the original post was likely sarcastic, I would also guess that the media would react more intensely to Labour actually winning here than it would to them failing to win a seat that they've never won before, even if they won that many nationwide.

[Foggy]

Jun 26, 2024 11:07:09 GMT YL said:

Jun 26, 2024 8:58:56 GMT froome said:

No doubt there will be shock and horror in the media about how, even if Labour win 450-500 seats, they still can't win Bridgwater.

I think that if Labour win 500 seats, they will win Bridgwater.

Well, I'd still agree with this analysis.

Had Labour's vote share actually been above 40% as polls had been showing for months, and had the national gap to the Tories been closer to 20 points than 10 then they might've been on course for a frighteningly unhealthy 500+ seats.

And in those circumstances, I think Labour would've taken this seat by a dozen votes or so. 

[heslingtonian]

Perhaps it's an unwritten rule that there has to be a Somerset MP called Fox in the Commons.

[froome]

Jul 6, 2024 17:59:11 GMT heslingtonian said:

Perhaps it's an unwritten rule that there has to be a Somerset MP called Fox in the Commons.

If that was the case, there would also be one for Hunt. And preferably combined as a double barrel name.

[froome]

Jul 5, 2024 22:01:48 GMT Foggy said:

Jun 26, 2024 11:07:09 GMT YL said:

I think that if Labour win 500 seats, they will win Bridgwater.

Well, I'd still agree with this analysis.

Had Labour's vote share actually been above 40% as polls had been showing for months, and had the national gap to the Tories been closer to 20 points than 10 then they might've been on course for a frighteningly unhealthy 500+ seats.

And in those circumstances, I think Labour would've taken this seat by a dozen votes or so. 

My comment was mainly about the media reaction. At 450-500 seats it would certainly have been close. However, the rural parts of this seat, of which there are many, are very resilient to voting Labour, so difficult to be certain on the result.

[heslingtonian]

Jul 6, 2024 17:59:11 GMT heslingtonian said:

Perhaps it's an unwritten rule that there has to be a Somerset MP called Fox in the Commons.

Please may no one ever communicate this to a certain resting actor.

[john07]

It is strange that Bridgwater, which contains arguably the strongest concentration of Labour support in Somerset, is now the only Conservative constituency in the County.

[batman]

It has been the case before; in 2010 the Lib Dems won all the Somerset county (as opposed to ex-Avon county) seats except Bridgwater & W Somerset which was held by the Tories. Labour has never won Bridgwater in general elections, not even in 1945 when Vernon Bartlett (Ind) won, whereas they did win both Frome (which contained the Somerset coalfield) & Taunton that year.

[andrewp]

I’m surprised in the context of this election that Labour didn’t win Bridgwater- it continues to frustrate them. It’s difficult to think of a much more favourable set of circumstances for Lab to win here- a decent local candidate, the boundaries including Highbridge which make them just about as good as they could be for Lab in Somerset, a Con candidate from Bristol.

As others have said,I do wonder if a generic Conservative candidate did better than Liddel-Grainger would have. Also Bridgwater is undoubtedly the sort of place where Labour would lose some votes to Farage, although possibly not as many as the Conservatives did.

I was in Bridgwater in the week before polling day and I did clock that in the areas that I went there were no Labour stakeboards in roads where there normally are.

[Foggy]

Jul 7, 2024 20:44:09 GMT andrewp said:

I’m surprised in the context of this election that Labour didn’t win Bridgwater- it continues to frustrate them. It’s difficult to think of a much more favourable set of circumstances for Lab to win here- a decent local candidate, the boundaries including Highbridge which make them just about as they could be for Lab in Somerset, a Con candidate from Bristol.

There was a Parish Council by-election in Highbridge on the same day as the GE which Labour won, but on a very split vote, and with only the 3 traditional main parties standing. Some who voted Labour in that election probably voted Green on their other ballot paper but a fair few likely voted for Reform as well. 

It's the other area of relative strength in the seat aside from the town of Bridgwater itself, but not nearly enough to make the difference considering Fox won by over 1,200 votes in the end. 

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jul 7, 2024 20:44:09 GMT andrewp said:

I’m surprised in the context of this election that Labour didn’t win Bridgwater- it continues to frustrate them. It’s difficult to think of a much more favourable set of circumstances for Lab to win here- a decent local candidate, the boundaries including Highbridge which make them just about as good as they could be for Lab in Somerset, a Con candidate from Bristol.

As others have said,I do wonder if a generic Conservative candidate did better than Liddel-Grainger would have. Also Bridgwater is undoubtedly the sort of place where Labour would lose some votes to Farage, although possibly not as many as the Conservatives did.

I was in Bridgwater in the week before polling day and I did clock that in the areas that I went there were no Labour stakeboards in roads where there normally are.

Labour would be wise to secure approval for the building of a couple of large housing estates in Bridgwater ahead of the next boundary review! It's one of those places where the difference in voting patterns between the main town and the rest of the seat is stark, and the main town isn't quite big enough for Labour.  

[andrewp]

Jul 8, 2024 9:16:53 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Jul 7, 2024 20:44:09 GMT andrewp said:

I’m surprised in the context of this election that Labour didn’t win Bridgwater- it continues to frustrate them. It’s difficult to think of a much more favourable set of circumstances for Lab to win here- a decent local candidate, the boundaries including Highbridge which make them just about as good as they could be for Lab in Somerset, a Con candidate from Bristol.

As others have said,I do wonder if a generic Conservative candidate did better than Liddel-Grainger would have. Also Bridgwater is undoubtedly the sort of place where Labour would lose some votes to Farage, although possibly not as many as the Conservatives did.

I was in Bridgwater in the week before polling day and I did clock that in the areas that I went there were no Labour stakeboards in roads where there normally are.

Labour would be wise to secure approval for the building of a couple of large housing estates in Bridgwater ahead of the next boundary review! It's one of those places where the difference in voting patterns between the main town and the rest of the seat is stark, and the main town isn't quite big enough for Labour.  

And also that Bridgwater is not quite as Labour as it used to be. In the 1960s they would have got a higher share in Bridgwater town than they did on Thursday.