Bridgwater

[stb12]

Bridgwater

[markgoodair]

Leigh Redman is the Labour party candidate.

[haroldthepolitician]

This seat could be a tough one to predict - Bridgwater fertile territory for Labour but it wont be enough to outweigh the incredibly strong rural surrounding which vote upwards of 60% tory. Interesting makeup for a seat though, much nicer for Labour than its predecesor!

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

May 28, 2024 20:02:16 GMT markgoodair said:

Leigh Redman is the Labour party candidate.

a very well known Bridgwater councillor 

[Foggy]

This is where my Dad is registered to vote. He lost his voting rights in 2011, but then a recent change in the law gave him them back even though he still lives overseas. My stepbrother lives on an estate on the edge of the town too, and I've got a few friends in the north of the constituency.

There's much less ultra-Tory rural hinterland than in the previous version of the seat. Labour may come to regret gradually surrendering the anti-Conservative vote in Highbridge to the Lib Dems over the years when it was part of Wells.

[andrewp]

I think Leigh Redman is a very good candidate for Labour here, he’s probably the strongest of the Bridgwater Labour councillors. I can’t actually imagine him wanting to be in London all of the time, but he obviously does.

As someone else said, Labour would probably need to do well in Highbridge and better in Burnham in order to win here, which is a tough ask after 40 years of the Labour vote there being subject to a LD squeeze whilst in a Con/LD marginal. If I had to bet I’d bet on a Tory hold with less than 40% here. It’s quite possible that Iain Liddell-Grainger had a slight negative personal vote for the Tories.

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

May 28, 2024 22:09:10 GMT andrewp said:

I think Leigh Redman is a very good candidate for Labour here, he’s probably the strongest of the Bridgwater Labour councillors. I can’t actually imagine him wanting to be in London all of the time, but he obviously does.

As someone else said, Labour would probably need to do well in Highbridge and better in Burnham in order to win here, which is a tough ask after 40 years of the Labour vote there being subject to a LD squeeze whilst in a Con/LD marginal. If I had to bet I’d bet on a Tory hold with less than 40% here. It’s quite possible that Iain Liddell-Grainger had a slight negative personal vote for the Tories.

Idle Stranger is standing in the new Tiverton and Minehead constituency, where i can confirm many have a very negative view of him.

[andrewp]

May 28, 2024 22:12:17 GMT Old Fashioned Leftie said:

May 28, 2024 22:09:10 GMT andrewp said:

I think Leigh Redman is a very good candidate for Labour here, he’s probably the strongest of the Bridgwater Labour councillors. I can’t actually imagine him wanting to be in London all of the time, but he obviously does.

As someone else said, Labour would probably need to do well in Highbridge and better in Burnham in order to win here, which is a tough ask after 40 years of the Labour vote there being subject to a LD squeeze whilst in a Con/LD marginal. If I had to bet I’d bet on a Tory hold with less than 40% here. It’s quite possible that Iain Liddell-Grainger had a slight negative personal vote for the Tories.

Idle Stranger is standing in the new Tiverton and Minehead constituency, where i can confirm many have a very negative view of him.

Yes, a lot of Tories aren’t very keen on him. Ashley Fox may well do better in Bridgwater than he would have.

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Pelé Barnes (Ind)
William Fagg (Ref)
Ashley Fox (Con)
Charles Graham (Grn)
Leigh Redman (Lab)
Claire Sully (LD)
Gregory Tanner (Workers)

[andrewp]

I was in Bridgwater today. Didn’t see any boards for Labour or the Conservatives. 1 Lib Dem board and 1 RefUK board, both on a council estate

[steve]

Jun 25, 2024 14:38:17 GMT andrewp said:

I was in Bridgwater today. Didn’t see any boards for Labour or the Conservatives. 1 Lib Dem board and 1 RefUK board, both on a council estate

I suspect this is going to be the least contested seat in Somerset and the likeliest Conservative hold.

[Foggy]

The online local "paper" in the north of the constituency seems to feature the LD candidate a lot, but my friend in Highbridge says he's been canvassed only by Labour and not seen any Lib Dem activity at all.

My Dad asked me how best to use his air mail vote at the weekend to stop the Tories and I was unable to give him any tactical advice. I did have to remind him of the 2019 Sedgemoor District Council result as well. Best not get anyone's hopes up here.

[john07]

Before Reorganisation, Bridgwater was run by Labour under the leadership of the legendary secretary/agent: Fred Phillips. He was a refugee from Czechoslovakia in the 1930s.

I understand from a pal from University that Bridgwater remained under Labour control throughout the 1960s until it was absorbed into Taunton. Apparently Phillips did a great job with ward boundary suggestions.

[froome]

I suspect Labour may well still win in Bridgwater town itself, though wouldn't be surprised if Reform did very well here as well, and the Tories won't be that far adrift. However, the town is only a small part of the constituency, and in the rural parts it is likely that the Conservative vote may tip it far enough for them to win. I can't see the Lib Dems getting much traction here, but I may be wrong, and this could be Reform's best result in Somerset, though very unlikely to be a winning one.

[Deleted]

This seat is ...


... a Bridg(e) too far for Labour.

[Deleted]

Jun 26, 2024 1:59:20 GMT john07 said:

Before Reorganisation, Bridgwater was run by Labour under the leadership of the legendary secretary/agent: Fred Phillips. He was a refugee from Czechoslovakia in the 1930s.

I understand from a pal from University that Bridgwater remained under Labour control throughout the 1960s until it was absorbed into Taunton. Apparently Phillips did a great job with ward boundary suggestions.

Bridgwater merged with Burnham-on-Sea and rural bits of western Somerset to form Sedgemoor DC.

[andrewp]

Jun 26, 2024 4:23:14 GMT froome said:

I suspect Labour may well still win in Bridgwater town itself, though wouldn't be surprised if Reform did very well here as well, and the Tories won't be that far adrift. However, the town is only a small part of the constituency, and in the rural parts it is likely that the Conservative vote may tip it far enough for them to win. I can't see the Lib Dems getting much traction here, but I may be wrong, and this could be Reform's best result in Somerset, though very unlikely to be a winning one.

Bridgwater is Defitnely the type of place where you will get some Lab/ Reform UK switchers, and would previously have had some Lab/UKIP waverers. I think that Lab will be ahead in Bridgwater Town - they should be- but probably have a lower ceiling in the constituency than some places. Something like Con 33 Lab 28 LD 18 REF 15 feels possible here. 

[hullenedge]

Jun 26, 2024 1:59:20 GMT john07 said:

Before Reorganisation, Bridgwater was run by Labour under the leadership of the legendary secretary/agent: Fred Phillips. He was a refugee from Czechoslovakia in the 1930s.

I understand from a pal from University that Bridgwater remained under Labour control throughout the 1960s until it was absorbed into Taunton. Apparently Phillips did a great job with ward boundary suggestions.

It was a Labour redoubt even in 1968. Something like 17 seats (out of 24) on the council.

[batman]

Labour will definitely win in Bridgwater town, but have very limited potential elsewhere.

[froome]

Jun 26, 2024 8:02:17 GMT batman said:

Labour will definitely win in Bridgwater town, but have very limited potential elsewhere.

No doubt there will be shock and horror in the media about how, even if Labour win 450-500 seats, they still can't win Bridgwater.