peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jun 19, 2024 16:32:17 GMT
Latest YouGov MRP for Dorset, changes compared to previous YouGov MRP.
Christchurch Con 35 (-8) LD 24 (+7) Ref 23 (+10) Lab 14 (-6) Grn 4 (-1) Other 1 (-)
Bournemouth East Lab 43 (-3) Con 28 (-2) Ref 15 (+5) LD 7 (+1) Grn 6 (-1) Other 1 (-)
Bournemouth West Lab 39 (-3) Con 28 (-1) Ref 17 (+6) Grn 9 (+2) LD 8 (-2) Other 0 (-1)
Poole Con 32 (-3) Lab 29 (-5) Ref 21 (+8) LD 12 (+1) Grn 6 (-) Other 1 (-)
Mid Dorset LD 45 (+9) Con 39 (+3) Lab 12 (-2) Grn 4 (-) Other 0 (-) (Previously had Reform on 11, now omitted as not standing)
North Dorset Con 35 (-2) LD 27 (-4) Ref 19 (+8) Lab 13 (+3) Grn 6 (+2) Other 0 (-1)
South Dorset Con 31 (-2) Lab 28 (-6) Ref 20 (+7) LD 12 (-1) Grn 8 (+2) Other 1 (-)
West Dorset LD 53 (+9) Con 33 (+3) Lab 9 (-3) Grn 4 (-) Other 1 (-) (Previously had Reform on 9, now omitted as not standing)
So Lib Dem leads growing in West Dorset and taking the lead in Mid Dorset, Labour leads remain strong in both Bournemouth seats, but Tories slightly in the lead now in both Poole and South Dorset.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 23, 2024 21:23:57 GMT
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 29, 2024 14:28:51 GMT
This is a breakdown of the latest Survation MRP for the Dorset seats. Comparison is in order to the June 15th and June 3rd Survation MRPs.
Christchurch Con 29.6% (-2%, -7.8%) Lab 23.2% (-2.8%, -2.9%) Lib Dem 20.4% (-0.2%, +0.2%) Ref 16.2% (+2.4%, +5.7%) Other 5.4% (+4.1%, +3.8%) Green 5.1% (-1.6%, +0.8%)
Bournemouth East Lab 35.7% (-2.6%, -10.3%) Con 23.7% (-0.8%, -4.4%) Ref 17.7% (+2.1%, +7.3%) Grn 11.0% (-2.0%, +6.8%) Lib Dem 7.4% (+1.0%, -1.0%) Other 4.4% (+2.1%, +1.5%)
Bournemouth West Lab 36.9% (-2.9%, -11.4%) Con 25.7% (+1.8%, +0.1%) Ref 16.7% (-0.2%, +4.6%) Lib Dem 10.9% (-0.3%, +3.4%) Grn 8.1% (+1.7%, +3.9%) Other 1.7% (-0.1%, -0.6%)
Poole Lab 33.0% (+3.9%, -1.6%) Con 29.2% (+3.0%, -2.8%) Lib Dem 17.9% (-6.3%, +4.5%) Ref 14.6% (+1.3%, +0.7%) Grn 4.0% (-2.0%, +0.4%) Other 1.3% (+0.0%, -1.2%)
Mid Dorset Lib Dem 36.2% (+3.4%, +6.9%) Con 34.2% (-2.9%, +3.5%) Lab 23.6% (+0.2%, +0.8%) Grn 4.2% (-1.7%, +0.1%) Other 1.9% (+1.0%, +0.1%)
North Dorset Con 30.9% (-2.8%, -0.2%) Lib Dem 25.0% (+5.3%, +0.1%) Lab 23.9% (-0.9%, -4.1%) Ref 13.2% (+3.8%, +4.3%) Grn 6.0% (-1.3%, +2.3%) Other 0.9% (+0.3%, -0.1%)
South Dorset Lab 35.0% (+3.7%, -2.0%) Con 26.9% (+3.8%, -0.1%) Ref 18.2% (-6.2%, -2.0%) Lib Dem 14.3% (+1.2%, +4.5%) Grn 4.1% (-3.1%, +0.2%) Other 1.5% (+0.5%, -0.5%)
West Dorset Lib Dem 47.6% (+10.5%, +13.5%) Con 28.6% (-5.5%, -1.8%) Lab 19.6% (-3.1%, -1.5%) Green 3.2% (-2.2%, -1.4%) Other 1.1% (+0.5%, -0.3%)
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jun 29, 2024 15:14:17 GMT
Looks very much an overly proportional swing against the Tories there with them only getting over a third of the vote in Mid Dorset. Not surprising given how worse for the Tories Survation's seat total was.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 2, 2024 4:39:37 GMT
That first indie leaflet says it was printed in the Province of Venice. Has any other election communication hailed from somewhere equally exotic??
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 2, 2024 6:46:06 GMT
In 2021 the Lib Dem in Cardiff Central had some leaflets printed in Germany because it was somehow cheaper.
He didn’t factor in the delay in customs however and they arrived almost a week later than he planned.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 3, 2024 13:23:18 GMT
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Post by kevinf on Jul 3, 2024 13:29:54 GMT
Thanks Peter, but not sure “helpful” and “Survation MRP” belong in the same sentence. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 4, 2024 14:01:40 GMT
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 4, 2024 21:23:46 GMT
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jul 4, 2024 22:27:24 GMT
Are all the Dorset UA seats being counted in Weymouth? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 4, 2024 22:51:19 GMT
Are all the Dorset UA seats being counted in Weymouth? Redlands sports center in Weymouth is being used as usual, I've only found specific references on the blogs to South Dorset and West Dorset being counted there, but probably all are, Dorset usually like a single count center. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 4, 2024 23:59:08 GMT
Bournemouth Echo: "There is a provisional turnout of 61.7%, with some postal votes yet to arrive."
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 5, 2024 3:52:40 GMT
Labour gain
Tom Hayes Labour 18,316 40.8% +8.1%
Conservative Tobias Ellwood 12,837 28.6% -22.0%
Reform UK Martin Houlden 6,268 14.0% +14.0%
Liberal Democrat Jon Nicholas 3,082 6.9% -4.1%
Green Joe Salmon 2,790 6.2% +2.0%
Independent Kieron Wilson 1,529 3.4% +3.4%
Social Democratic Party Miles Penn 88 0.2% +0.2%
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