Bournemouth East

[stb12]

Bournemouth East

[markgoodair]

Reform have selected Martin Houlden as their PPC.

[dundas]

Wayne Adlem will be standing for Workers Party of Britain.

[johnloony]

May 15, 2024 22:42:47 GMT dundas said:

Wayne Adlem will be standing for Workers Party of Great Britain.

No he won’t, because there is no such thing.

[dundas]

May 16, 2024 0:43:11 GMT johnloony said:

May 15, 2024 22:42:47 GMT dundas said:

Wayne Adlem will be standing for Workers Party of Great Britain.

No he won’t, because there is no such thing.

Thanks, have edited this.

[peterl]

Some coverage of the candidates from the Bournemouth Echo

Lib Dem (covers both Bournemouth candidates)
www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/24344923.liberal-democrats-announce-bournemouth-election-candidates/

Worker's Party
www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/24350735.wayne-adlem-stands-workers-party-britain-bournemouth/

I would guess the remainder are still to come.

[dundas]

May 16, 2024 0:43:11 GMT johnloony said:

May 15, 2024 22:42:47 GMT dundas said:

Wayne Adlem will be standing for Workers Party of Great Britain.

No he won’t, because there is no such thing.

He won't be standing at all now.

[peterl]

Bournemouth Echo gives some of the breakdown of this week's YouGov poll. I'll post it all here rather than cluttering up each thread.
www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/24364275.general-election-bournemouth-elect-first-labour-mp/

Bournemouth East is 46-30 Labour.
Bournemouth West is 42-29 Labour.
Poole is Con 35 Lab 34.
North Dorset is Con 37 LD 31.

Christchurch and Poole North and Dorset Mid are just described as Tories ahead.

And per the Bridport News
www.bridportnews.co.uk/news/24363504.national-poll-predicts-conservative-losses-dorset/

Dorset West Lib Dem 44-30.
Dorset South 34-33 Labour.

[peterl]

Candidates:

Tobias Ellwood Conservative
Tom Hayes Labour
Martin James Holden Reform UK
Jon Martin Nicholas Liberal Democrats
Miles Penn Social Democratic Party
Joe Angus Salmon Green Party
Kieron Wilson Independent

Reform and Green give address in BCP, all others live within Bournemouth.

[hullenedge]

Combined Bournemouth 'poll' hyped on Twitter. Strongly suspect it lacks usual rigour:-

[batman]

yes those figures are rather......convenient for that message aren't they

[greenhert]

This is likely to be a Labour gain nonetheless because like Worthing, it has undergone significant demographic change hence the results of 2017 and 2019.

[peterl]

There's a write up here on a local hustings, giving a short quote from each candidate
www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/24381835.bournemouth-east-candidates-share-visions-hustings/

[peterl]

These are the numbers for each Dorset seat from the new Survation poll. I've listed the three highest scoring parties in each case.

Christchurch Con 37 Lab 26 Lib Dem 20
Bournemouth East Lab 46 Con 28 Ref 10
Bournemouth West Lab 48 Con 26 Ref 12
Poole Lab 34 Con 32 Ref 14
Mid Dorset Con 31 Lib Dem 29 Lab 23
Dorset South Lab 37 Con 27 Ref 20
Dorset West Lib Dem 34 Con 30 Lab 21
Dorset North Con 34 Lab 28 Lib Dem 25

So if these numbers are to be believed, 3 Labour, 2 Toss-up, 2 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Bournemouth West having a larger Labour majority than Bournemouth East, hmm.

[john07]

Is it correct that the only seat in this area that Labour has ever won was South Dorset in the by-election with Guy Barnett?

[finsobruce]

Jun 15, 2024 22:28:52 GMT john07 said:

Is it correct that the only seat in this area that Labour has ever won was South Dorset in the by-election with Guy Barnett?

And 2001-2010 (Jim Knight)

[Deleted]

Jun 15, 2024 22:18:09 GMT peterl said:

These are the numbers for each Dorset seat from the new Survation poll. I've listed the three highest scoring parties in each case.

Christchurch Con 37 Lab 26 Lib Dem 20
Bournemouth East Lab 46 Con 28 Ref 10
Bournemouth West Lab 48 Con 26 Ref 12
Poole Lab 34 Con 32 Ref 14
Mid Dorset Con 31 Lib Dem 29 Lab 23
Dorset South Lab 37 Con 27 Ref 20
Dorset West Lib Dem 34 Con 30 Lab 21
Dorset North Con 34 Lab 28 Lib Dem 25

So if these numbers are to be believed, 3 Labour, 2 Toss-up, 2 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem

Labour winning Poole would be seriously impressive. I fully believe it's possible given the state of national polls though. North Dorset also seems to be in reach for them and would be even more monumental—despite continued existence since 1885, Labour have only managed 2nd place once, in 2017.

The West Dorset and Mid Dorset & North Poole numbers will no doubt end up on Lib Dem leaflets.

[batman]

I don’t think we get to win N Dorset. Poole is slightly more believable but would still be really something if it happened.

[peterl]

Okay here's Dorset's numbers from the new Ipsos MRP

Christchurch Con 40 Lab 27 Ref 16 LD 12 Grn 5
Bournemouth East Lab 43 Con 27 LD 13 Ref 11 Grn 6
Bournemouth West Lab 43 Con 27 Ref 12 LD 9 Grn 8
Poole Lab 37 Con 35 LD 13 Ref 10 Grn 5
Mid Dorset Con 44 LD 34 Lab 18 Grn 4
North Dorset Con 42 Lab 23 LD 17 Ref 13 Grn 5
South Dorset Lab 42 Con 32 Ref 15 LD 7 Grn 5
West Dorset LD 50 Con 35 Lab 12 Grn 4

So West Dorset stronger for the Lib Dems, North Dorset and Mid Dorsetstronger for the Tories and the rest about the same, Reform generally weaker. This poll does account for where Reform are not standing, making these numbers even grimmer for the blues in West Dorset.