Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 7, 2013 8:28:40 GMT
The swing in Nottingham is fairly similar to the Wollaton East election a few weeks back (IIRC that was about 12.5-13%) so in that context the gain by Labour is maybe not a complete shock. A few of us even predicted it, although not by that margin.
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Post by slicesofjim on Jun 7, 2013 9:47:22 GMT
Another stunning result for TUSC, I see  Think the only people who did nothing were TUSC, Sibley and the Tories. I suspect Hicks came fifth because he was the only one of the nine candidates who lived in the ward! When you say TUSC did nothing, is that actually what happened? Genuine question, I can hardly expect to get an honest account through other channels. Getting a bit sick and tired of people standing and not actually running a campaign, do they really think we can actually do that and get anywhere?  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2013 9:49:27 GMT
great result in Nottingham and the Tories can not complain about UKIP splitting their vote. I do look at the results and wonder just how bad things could be for the Tories in 2014 Met elections in the Midlands and North if UKIP keep at this level ? In some places they don't have many seats to lose next year because they didn't do very well in 2010. E.g. In Wigan they won one seat in 2012 but none in 2010. There are some places where they can lose a lot- Dudley, Birmingham, and no seats in Sefton isn't out of the question. Vote shares could be well down in some places,and truly dreadful in wards like Walkergate where they have no chance of winning( and that means every ward in some places). In Walkergate the few Conservative voters there are could reasonably vote for UKIP next year because they have a better (but still small) chance of winning. Repeat across the Conservative deserts and the number of votes could be far worse even than it usually is. When I look at the Mets in the West Mids in 2010 it was not good for the Tories but hardly a disaster when you look at 2011/2012. If UKIP continue like this then a lot of previously unwinnable seats for Labour could be that, just like the one yesterday. I am thinking of for example Paddock in Walsall. |
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Post by mrhell on Jun 7, 2013 11:36:20 GMT
Think the only people who did nothing were TUSC, Sibley and the Tories. I suspect Hicks came fifth because he was the only one of the nine candidates who lived in the ward! When you say TUSC did nothing, is that actually what happened? Genuine question, I can hardly expect to get an honest account through other channels. Getting a bit sick and tired of people standing and not actually running a campaign, do they really think we can actually do that and get anywhere? Didn't hear about anything them (canvassing or leaflets) which I did for six of the candidates (Lib Dem, Labour, UKIP, Hicks, Newcastle First, Greens). I think the Greens only did a bit of canvassing. Doesn't mean TUSC didn't but I don't know about it. An interesting comparison with the Fenham by-election (actually early 2009 not 2007 as I thought) which I compared Walkergate with in my post after polls closed. In that, the BNP got also 27% as a protest against a national governing party and a local governing party (obviously reversed yesterday). If I was Labour I would be worried about UKIP being involved in Labour seats in the Inner/Outer West of Newcastle which like Walkergate have switched between themselves and ourselves in the last ten years. |
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Post by slicesofjim on Jun 7, 2013 14:56:23 GMT
When you say TUSC did nothing, is that actually what happened? Genuine question, I can hardly expect to get an honest account through other channels. Getting a bit sick and tired of people standing and not actually running a campaign, do they really think we can actually do that and get anywhere? Didn't hear about anything them (canvassing or leaflets) which I did for six of the candidates (Lib Dem, Labour, UKIP, Hicks, Newcastle First, Greens). I think the Greens only did a bit of canvassing. Doesn't mean TUSC didn't but I don't know about it. An interesting comparison with the Fenham by-election (actually early 2009 not 2007 as I thought) which I compared Walkergate with in my post after polls closed. In that, the BNP got also 27% as a protest against a national governing party and a local governing party (obviously reversed yesterday). If I was Labour I would be worried about UKIP being involved in Labour seats in the Inner/Outer West of Newcastle which like Walkergate have switched between themselves and ourselves in the last ten years. I think given you detected activity from the others, and I heard nothing elsewhere, I think we can assume once again it was a case of sit back and do nothing, except for try and sell a few newspapers. Sigh. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2013 18:02:41 GMT
Result: Steve Battlemuch (Labour) 2,211 James Spencer (Conservative) 1,594 Chris Clarke (UKIP) 565 Barbara Pearce (Liberal Democrat) 216 Katharina Boettge (Green) 103 David Bishop (Militant Elvis Anti HS2) 28 The number of rejected ballot papers was 18 The turnout was 4,735 (42.66%) Another pretty dismal performance from the City of Nottingham Tories in a now lengthy line of disappointing performances. I don't suppose the siuation here is going to improve anytime soon. |
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Post by mrhell on Jun 7, 2013 21:56:05 GMT
I've had a quick look and can't see a worse Tory percentage of the vote in Newcastle from 1982 onwards. I've got the results for about 1970 to 1981 but not the percentages. I'll look but I'd be surprised if I can find a worse result.
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Post by grahamfirth on Jun 7, 2013 23:13:58 GMT
I have a result from Bracknell Town Council, Great Hollands South ward: Clive Temperton (Labour Party Candidate) 556 John Bouchard (Conservative Party Candidate) 343 Larraine Kerry De Laune (Liberal Democrats) 64 Mark Daniel Brown (Green Party) 58 Labour gain from Conservative I reckon that's a 20.4% swing to Labour since last full election in 2011 |
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