Woking

[stb12]

Woking

[k9]

The Liberal Democrat conference in York awarded Woking the best delivery network award: x.com/markpack/status/1770037823715865018?s=20

I suspect Woking will be an under the radar gain as the current MP does not have the high profile of MPs in Godalming and Ash or Surrey Heath thus attracting more media attention.

[heslingtonian]

Mar 21, 2024 11:30:43 GMT k9 said:

The Liberal Democrat conference in York awarded Woking the best delivery network award: x.com/markpack/status/1770037823715865018?s=20

I suspect Woking will be an under the radar gain as the current MP does not have the high profile of MPs in Godalming and Ash or Surrey Heath thus attracting more media attention.

I tend to agree with you that it will be a Lib Dem gain (I actually think the Lib Dems may gain 5-6 seats in Surrey) however I do wonder whether being a prominent member of the current Government (such as Hunt or Gove) will be a help or a hindrance with the electorate. I think such is this Government's unpopularity that someone who can put some distance between it and them by pointing to their local record may be in a stronger position than someone who has held a senior Cabinet position. The problem for Jonathan Lord is I'm not sure he has much of a local track record either.

[No Offence Alan]

Mar 26, 2024 22:22:13 GMT heslingtonian said:

Mar 21, 2024 11:30:43 GMT k9 said:

The Liberal Democrat conference in York awarded Woking the best delivery network award: x.com/markpack/status/1770037823715865018?s=20

I suspect Woking will be an under the radar gain as the current MP does not have the high profile of MPs in Godalming and Ash or Surrey Heath thus attracting more media attention.

I tend to agree with you that it will be a Lib Dem gain (I actually think the Lib Dems may gain 5-6 seats in Surrey) however I do wonder whether being a prominent member of the current Government (such as Hunt or Gove) will be a help or a hindrance with the electorate. I think such is this Government's unpopularity that someone who can put some distance between it and them by pointing to their local record may be in a stronger position than someone who has held a senior Cabinet position. The problem for Jonathan Lord is I'm not sure he has much of a local track record either.

With still possibly 9 months to go before the election, and the current rate of turnover of ministers, Jonathan Lord might well be a Cabinet member by then.

[heslingtonian]

Mar 26, 2024 23:10:38 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Mar 26, 2024 22:22:13 GMT heslingtonian said:

I tend to agree with you that it will be a Lib Dem gain (I actually think the Lib Dems may gain 5-6 seats in Surrey) however I do wonder whether being a prominent member of the current Government (such as Hunt or Gove) will be a help or a hindrance with the electorate. I think such is this Government's unpopularity that someone who can put some distance between it and them by pointing to their local record may be in a stronger position than someone who has held a senior Cabinet position. The problem for Jonathan Lord is I'm not sure he has much of a local track record either.

With still possibly 9 months to go before the election, and the current rate of turnover of ministers, Jonathan Lord might well be a Cabinet member by then.

At the current rate of turnover, he'll be appointed to Cabinet, resign and then announce he's standing down as an MP all before the next General Election.

[johnloony]

Mar 26, 2024 22:22:13 GMT heslingtonian said:

… (I actually think the Lib Dems may gain 5-6 seats in Surrey)…

That reminds me of the speculation in 2015 that UKIP might win 5 seats in Kent alone

[heslingtonian]

Mar 27, 2024 1:40:10 GMT johnloony said:

Mar 26, 2024 22:22:13 GMT heslingtonian said:

… (I actually think the Lib Dems may gain 5-6 seats in Surrey)…

That reminds me of the speculation in 2015 that UKIP might win 5 seats in Kent alone

Ok, let's look at these. In order of probability:

1. Esher & Walton - Notional Conservative majority over the Lib Dems of about 2k. Conservative incumbent not restanding. Lib Dem candidate has had an additional five years to work the seat. Lib Dems are now the largest Party on Elmbridge and may well win outright control in May.

2. Guildford- Notional Conservative majority over the Lib Dems of about 3k. Lib Dems have outright control of local Council. Seat voted Lib Dem at 2001 General Election. Conservative incumbent (who I know and like) is campaigning hard but it is a very tough ask especially as the Conservative Party has actively annoyed many of the sort of middle class, well-educated, Remain-voting moderates who live in places like Guildford. Youngish population which won't help the Conservatives.

3. Woking - Notional Conservative majority over Lib Dems of 8k. Has been discussed above. This May's local elections may see a complete wipe out of the Conservative Group on the Council only two years since the Party had the Council leadership. Conservatives are widely blamed for the financial mess the Council is in. Conservative MP is very low profile.

4. Godalming & Ash - Notional Conservative majority over Lib Dems of 10k. Lib Dems now dominate local Council with the Council Leader now the Lib Dem candidate. Recent council by-elections in Waverley have been very good for the Lib Dems. Recent poll showed Lib Dems ahead with considerable scope for tactical voting. Persistent rumours that Jeremy Hunt may be a late retirement.

5. Dorking & Horley - Notional Conservative majority over Lib Dems of 10k. Lib Dems now dominate local Council and Conservatives barely have any local government representation here. Long term Conservative incumbent is standing down.

I also think that the Lib Dems have an outside chance in Surrey Heath, Runnymede & Weybridge and Farnham & Bordon but I would probably rate these as leaning to the Conservatives currently. It depends on the extent of anti-Conservative tactical voting in these seats.

Labour may also have a shot at winning Spelthorne. I expect the Conservatives to hold Epsom & Ewell, Reigate and East Surrey.

[bigfatron]

I agree on that list, although I would add Farnham & Bordon, and Runnymede & Weybridge to the list of expected Tory holds.
If the Tories lose here in East Surrey then they are well and truly fucked... but they won't.

[bjornhattan]

The one issue with Woking is that it isn't as much of a clear cut Conservative - Lib Dem marginal. Labour are stronger here than the other marginals the Lib Dems are targeting in Surrey, and this strength is also quite concentrated. Of course that may not prove important - every single elector in Canalside could turn out and vote Labour but the Lib Dems would still have a fighting chance if they did well in the other parts of the borough, like they have in local elections. But it is a slight complication.

The other side to this is that if things go particularly badly it may lead to the Tories dropping to third, though I think they'd need an actively bad MP with a bad local reputation (rather than an anonymous one) for that to happen.

[londonseal80]

I think Surrey is one area of the country where the tories are in the doggy do. I believe only Surrey East and Reigate are certain Tory Holds (the latter will swing heavy to the Greens but won’t be enough to unseat the Conservative).

Epsom and Ewell - Very Likely Con Hold but could this seat do a Harrow West in 1997? Not likely but not impossible. Demographic changes in Epsom, people from inner London moving out to start families could increase the non right wing vote here. Also a small student population here.

Runnymede and Weybridge - Another likely Con Hold but like Epsom there’s an outside chance of LD or Lab gain here with tactical voting. Student population in Egham as well.

Spelthorne - Labour best shot of a seat in Surrey.

Surrey Heath - Lib Dem’s took council here substantially, bigger swings have unseated MPs before.

Farnham and Bordon - I predict a Lib Dem win here

Lib Dem’s will sweep the rest. The tories will hold on better in counties like Kent and Essex where there is less LD presence.

[batman]

Runnymede & Weybridge is more likely to be Labour than LD. The LDs will primarily work elsewhere but there is a definite Labour presence in Egham & Englefield Green in particular. Spelthorne is probably likelier though. I wouldn't rule out a Labour win in Reigate altogether though it may be that the Tory majority has been artificially depressed by Blunt having a negative personal vote which will no longer be a factor

[londonseal80]

Apr 1, 2024 9:21:09 GMT batman said:

Runnymede & Weybridge is more likely to be Labour than LD. The LDs will primarily work elsewhere but there is a definite Labour presence in Egham & Englefield Green in particular. Spelthorne is probably likelier though. I wouldn't rule out a Labour win in Reigate altogether though it may be that the Tory majority has been artificially depressed by Blunt having a negative personal vote which will no longer be a factor

I would rank Reigate as the 4th most likely Labour gain in Surrey and then Woking 5th (though Woking looks more like the sort of place should do well in) Surrey East is one everyone can agree will stay blue. It’s next to Sevenoaks and it’s more similar to that area than say Guildford.

[batman]

It should do although there are some areas of LD strength even there.

[londonseal80]

You could end up in a strange situation with Conservatives narrowly holding on somewhere like Dartford but losing affluent seats like Epsom and Ewell or Runnymede and Weybridge. Yes both those seats have decent Labour areas and wards with Labour potiential within them, however Dartford was held by Labour in 1959 (though didn’t it contain Erith and Crayford and not the rural bits).

[batman]

No Erith & Crayford got its own seat in 1955. Dartford itself has had pro-Conservative demographic change.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 1, 2024 9:21:09 GMT batman said:

Runnymede & Weybridge is more likely to be Labour than LD. The LDs will primarily work elsewhere but there is a definite Labour presence in Egham & Englefield Green in particular. Spelthorne is probably likelier though. I wouldn't rule out a Labour win in Reigate altogether though it may be that the Tory majority has been artificially depressed by Blunt having a negative personal vote which will no longer be a factor

Englefield Green is moving into the Windsor seat to be replaced by Cobham and Oxshott. I think people are getting a bit silly about some of these seats, including those who are normally pretty level headed (on psephological issues in any case, even if not in terms of their broader political views )

[The Bishop]

Yes, it should be recalled that even "only" losing a few seats would be the worst Tory performance in present day Surrey since.....1906??

[graham]

Some seats flatter to deceive in that there is a tendency to focus too much on results which were atypically good at the previous GE. I suspect this may be true of Esher & Walton where the LDs did exceptionally well in 2019. The party benefitted from massive tactical voting by former Labour voters and the salience of Brexit and Corbyn at that time.Those factors have pretty well disappeared now and Labour's stronger national position is also likely to reduce the extent of tactical voting this year. I also suspect that Raab's standing down will help the Tories there. It is also usually a mistake for the LDs to rely on the predictive nature of local election successes almost invariably achieved on low turnouts. I would expect a Tory hold here. Guildford looks a likely LD gain.
I am also reminded of the 2010 election. Labour was very much on the defensive, yet despite the Clegg factor during the campaign widely expected gains from Labour such as Durham City failed to materialise - and seats which the party had expected to hold - such as Rochdale - were lost! Going back as far as the February 1974 election, the Liberal surge failed to pick up obvious target seats - such as Orpington narrowly lost in 1970. Bodmin was gained by a tiny majority after several recounts - only to be lost again in October! Hazel Grove was gained in February - but again lost in October. Beyond the spectacular gain of the Isle of Wight , Liberal successes were restricted to retaining some by election gains.

[maxque]

Apr 1, 2024 11:52:50 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, it should be recalled that even "only" losing a few seats would be the worst Tory performance in present day Surrey since.....1906??

Indeed. Conservatives won all seats in present day Surrey at every election but:
1906 (3 Liberals, 1 Conservative)
1945 (6 Conservatives, 1 Labour) (and that seat voted Labour thanks to including non-Surrey Ealing).
2001 (10 Conservatives, 1 Liberal Democrat)

[graham]

Apr 1, 2024 13:21:13 GMT maxque said:

Apr 1, 2024 11:52:50 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, it should be recalled that even "only" losing a few seats would be the worst Tory performance in present day Surrey since.....1906??

Indeed. Conservatives won all seats in present day Surrey at every election but:
1906 (3 Liberals, 1 Conservative)
1945 (6 Conservatives, 1 Labour) (and that seat voted Labour thanks to including non-Surrey Ealing).
2001 (10 Conservatives, 1 Liberal Democrat)

But Ealing is nowhere near Surrey!