Sevenoaks

[stb12]

Sevenoaks

[iain]

www.sevenoaks.gov.uk/info/20053/elections_and_voting/787/parliamentary_general_election_-_4_july_2024

7 candidates: main 5 parties, SDP, Rejoin EU

[cogload]

A combo of Ed Davey and Sarah Olney made a campaign stop here a couple of days ago..

[batman]

Goodness, that is ambitious. I don't see Sevenoaks as a seat likely to vote against the Conservatives even now. Perhaps they think they have a chance. Heaven knows how few seats the Tories would win if they managed to lose Sevenoaks.

[Deleted]

Ed Davey's party will do well, plus there are Reform pockets (is Swanley in this seat?). I think it'll be one or two oaks rather than seven after the election.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 20, 2024 8:36:44 GMT batman said:

Goodness, that is ambitious. I don't see Sevenoaks as a seat likely to vote against the Conservatives even now. Perhaps they think they have a chance. Heaven knows how few seats the Tories would win if they managed to lose Sevenoaks.

Given Orpington is next door, it's probably a case of you might as well whilst you're at it. An easy way to cause some concern.

[steve]

Jun 20, 2024 8:38:25 GMT @weld said:

Ed Davey's party will do well, plus there are Reform pockets (is Swanley in this seat?). I think it'll be one or two oaks rather than seven after the election.

They've been running a high profile campaign. Their candidate is a scion of the family that lived at Chiddingstone Castle in the constituency and would perhaps have been wearing a blue rosette in a different era. In any event he may have some appeal to more moderate Conservative voters. Hard to see them winning but they will likely get a strong second place.

[batman]

Jun 20, 2024 8:38:25 GMT @weld said:

Ed Davey's party will do well, plus there are Reform pockets (is Swanley in this seat?). I think it'll be one or two oaks rather than seven after the election.

Swanley is in this seat, but is a highly anomalous part of it. 

In Orpington the challenge, should there be one at all, will come from Labour, unlike here. If the Tories manage to lose in Orpington that would probably mean wipe-out in London.

[cogload]

Bear in mind the source:

If you fancy a flutter the LD's were 22/1 on oddschecker yesterday...

[londonseal80]

Jun 20, 2024 8:36:44 GMT batman said:

Goodness, that is ambitious. I don't see Sevenoaks as a seat likely to vote against the Conservatives even now. Perhaps they think they have a chance. Heaven knows how few seats the Tories would win if they managed to lose Sevenoaks.

Agreed, Apart from Tunbridge Wells I think only Maidstone and Malling as possible LD gain in Kent.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 20, 2024 9:02:46 GMT batman said:

Jun 20, 2024 8:38:25 GMT @weld said:

Ed Davey's party will do well, plus there are Reform pockets (is Swanley in this seat?). I think it'll be one or two oaks rather than seven after the election.

Swanley is in this seat, but is a highly anomalous part of it. 

In Orpington the challenge, should there be one at all, will come from Labour, unlike here. If the Tories manage to lose in Orpington that would probably mean wipe-out in London.

Anecdote v data of course...but the biggest threat to the Tories in Orpington might well be angry Tory voters not voting. Turnout rates could be very interesting.

[kevinf]

Jun 21, 2024 16:36:12 GMT cogload said:

Bear in mind the source:

If you fancy a flutter the LD's were 22/1 on oddschecker yesterday...


- if you fancy a flutter, I’d bet on the Tories!

[cogload]

Depends if you want a bit of value or not...

[listener]

I have received literature from six candidates, but nothing from Rejoin EU.

3 leaflets from Laura Trott, 2 each from Lib Dems and Reform UK and 1 each from Lab and SDP. The second Lib Dem leaflet is headlined "It's Neck and Neck!".