stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:19:32 GMT
Romsey and Southampton North
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Post by Antiochian on Jun 3, 2024 18:10:12 GMT
LibDems are delivering leaflets for R&SN into Andover.. seemingly not knowing where the constituency ends/begins... or having too many leaflets and dumping them anywhere
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Jun 3, 2024 18:41:16 GMT
LibDems are delivering leaflets for R&SN into Andover.. seemingly not knowing where the constituency ends/begins... or having too many leaflets and dumping them anywhere I suppose it depends if the leaflets were generic Lib Dem material or specifically targeted at Romsey and Southampton North? |
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Post by Antiochian on Jun 3, 2024 18:47:41 GMT
LibDems are delivering leaflets for R&SN into Andover.. seemingly not knowing where the constituency ends/begins... or having too many leaflets and dumping them anywhere I suppose it depends if the leaflets were generic Lib Dem material or specifically targeted at Romsey and Southampton North? Very targetted, he is Geoff Cooper. . ironically I now know more about the candidate in R&SN than I know about the LibDem PPC in Hampshire NorthWest... Though, probably the less I know the better... |
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Post by Antiochian on Jun 3, 2024 18:52:21 GMT
It's surprising they haven't rewarmed Sandra Gidley, who was the MP for ten years, and is currently a councillor on Test Valley Borough Council... Maybe she has the taint of religiosity... lol
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 3, 2024 18:54:38 GMT
LibDems are delivering leaflets for R&SN into Andover.. seemingly not knowing where the constituency ends/begins... or having too many leaflets and dumping them anywhere Although confusingly enough, some parts of the town of Andover have been moved into Romsey and Southampton North with the boundary review. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jun 3, 2024 20:19:58 GMT
It's surprising they haven't rewarmed Sandra Gidley, who was the MP for ten years, and is currently a councillor on Test Valley Borough Council... Maybe she has the taint of religiosity... lol I doubt she would want to restart her parliamentary career at 67. Besides the Coopers - father and son - have been around in this part of the political world for a long time. |
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Post by Antiochian on Jun 3, 2024 21:34:42 GMT
It's surprising they haven't rewarmed Sandra Gidley, who was the MP for ten years, and is currently a councillor on Test Valley Borough Council... Maybe she has the taint of religiosity... lol I doubt she would want to restart her parliamentary career at 67. Besides the Coopers - father and son - have been around in this part of the political world for a long time. I know the father.. He was on TVBC as a cllr when I was... except he has been there since the dawn of time. |
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Post by Antiochian on Jun 3, 2024 21:44:03 GMT
LibDems are delivering leaflets for R&SN into Andover.. seemingly not knowing where the constituency ends/begins... or having too many leaflets and dumping them anywhere Although confusingly enough, some parts of the town of Andover have been moved into Romsey and Southampton North with the boundary review. None of the the Town of Andover has changed constituency. But the villages to the south and north have been moved in R&SN.... Any desperate move by the Tories to try and stop the ascendancy of Andover and its return to dominance will be employed. Note the resistance to employing the name Andover in the title of the constituency despite the town having multiple members for hundreds of years at Westminster. Andover now probably has more people than Winchester's urban area and does not have a classic Tory demographic (lots of London overspill to the north and east) but they have managed to divert the tide (if not stem it). But the tide is coming in and it isn't Tory. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 5, 2024 18:30:04 GMT
Ed Davey here today.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 5, 2024 18:31:41 GMT
Hope he stuck to the speed limit.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Jun 5, 2024 19:43:44 GMT
Hope he stuck to the speed limit. Unlike his former Eastleigh colleague he admitted his offence. |
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Post by tonyhil on Jun 6, 2024 16:34:59 GMT
The LibDem leaflets being mis-delivered in Andover were a paid delivery by the Royal Mail, who also did the same to Caroline Noakes's leaflets.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 6, 2024 17:01:09 GMT
The LibDem leaflets being mis-delivered in Andover were a paid delivery by the Royal Mail, who also did the same to Caroline Noakes's leaflets. Given it's what they do for a living the ability of Royal Mail to misdeliver is impressive. But not in a good way. Pretty much every time I've been an agent I've had complaints of the freepost not being delivered (on one occasion they seem to have missed most of Nantwich) and ridicule for their being delivered outside the constituency. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 7, 2024 17:10:35 GMT
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 16, 2024 18:51:34 GMT
The independent candidate Fennie Yap hasn't sent out any material that I've received, but it seems she is standing on a pro-life platform and has been endorsed by the VoteLife website. No doubt this is aimed at Caroline Nokes' record on the issue.
Anyway I've voted for a Conservative hold here. I imagine the Lib Dems will do well and clearly cement their position as the closest challenger -and their campaign here features the usual hallmarks in terms of the chosen issues and tactical voting. They will have two big places to pile up as many votes as they can - within the parish of Romsey (i.e. the three urban wards), and sizeable chunks of the north of Southampton - though without the student population. I feel as if they're getting more out of Swaythling this time than before - partly based on the result in the City Council election. I think the patterns (as opposed to the actual figures) will very much mirror those in the local elections. The Lib Dems should want to get some good numbers in the villages of North Baddesley and Stockbridge too. And they will really need to, because as well there being as sizeable Conservative bases in the aforementioned places and other rural parts of the seat, they will substantially benefit from the addition of the three wards from North West Hampshire (Charlton and the Pentons, Bellinger and Anna wards), and the loss of Valley Park which already has a Lib Dem base at local level. While Labour aren't really a factor here, and especially not outside of Southampton, the 2019 result makes one feel that much of the tactical squeeze from has largely happened. As for Reform, a guess of about 9-12% seems safe on current polling. The other thing to mention is Caroline Nokes' candidacy. I suspect any suggestion of disquiet due to her 'wetness' among Tories, and in turn her acceptability to Tory/Lib Dem switchers will be somewhat exaggerated on both sides, and she is working the constituency very well.
While in the current climate a change of hands wouldn't be quite so shocking, I would go with a Conservative win by around a 5% margin over the Lib Dems. Don't tag me when I'm completely wrong!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 16, 2024 18:58:36 GMT
This is probably the only constituency in the country where I would consider voting Lib Dem tactically to ensure the defeat of the Conservative incumbent.
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,563 
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Post by Sharon on Jun 16, 2024 18:59:20 GMT
The independent candidate Fennie Yap hasn't sent out any material that I've received, but it seems she is standing on a pro-life platform and has been endorsed by the VoteLife website. No doubt this is aimed at Caroline Nokes' record on the issue. Anyway I've voted for a Conservative hold here. I imagine the Lib Dems will do well and clearly cement their position as the closest challenger -and their campaign here features the usual hallmarks in terms of the chosen issues and tactical voting. They will have two big places to pile up as many votes as they can - within the parish of Romsey (i.e. the three urban wards), and sizeable chunks of the north of Southampton - though without the student population. I feel as if they're getting more out of Swaythling this time than before - partly based on the result in the City Council election. I think the patterns (as opposed to the actual figures) will very much mirror those in the local elections. The Lib Dems should want to get some good numbers in the villages of North Baddesley and Stockbridge too. And they will really need to, because as well there being as sizeable Conservative bases in the aforementioned places and other rural parts of the seat, they will substantially benefit from the addition of the three wards from North West Hampshire (Charlton and the Pentons, Bellinger and Anna wards), and the loss of Valley Park which already has a Lib Dem base at local level. While Labour aren't really a factor here, and especially not outside of Southampton, the 2019 result makes one feel that much of the tactical squeeze from has largely happened. As for Reform, a guess of about 9-12% seems safe on current polling. The other thing to mention is Caroline Nokes' candidacy. I suspect any suggestion of disquiet due to her 'wetness' among Tories, and in turn her acceptability to Tory/Lib Dem switchers will be somewhat exaggerated on both sides, and she is working the constituency very well. While in the current climate a change of hands wouldn't be quite so shocking, I would go with a Conservative win by around a 5% margin over the Lib Dems. Don't tag me when I'm completely wrong! Are you just back from the hustings too? I've also voted for Tory hold, based on the fact that Valley Park which is solid LD and a high turnout ward is no longer in the constituency, but the 3 wards that have come in from NW Hants are staunch Tory. The LDs have been working Swaythling since May 2023, but it tends towards low turnout. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Jun 17, 2024 10:27:39 GMT
Are you just back from the hustings too? Afraid not as the earliest I could've made it was 6.30 and I decided that was too late! I hope it was a good evening. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 3, 2024 15:11:31 GMT
And Sunak visits his old patch on the final day! I'm touched (but most definitely not swayed). For those of who you don't know, the 'Sunak Pharmacy' was in Bassett ward and just in this seat. Indeed it is just called Bassett Pharmacy under its new owners.
I still am happy with the prediction I made here, and perhaps Sunak's visit was partly a homecoming rather than something to read into electorally. Though it feels a little similar to his to Witney and Stratford on Avon, so he may well consider this seat 'in range too'. After the last three elections it makes a change for this to be the only battleground in the city...
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