stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:10:25 GMT
North West Hampshire
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jun 8, 2024 9:57:21 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jul 13, 2024 10:12:47 GMT
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 24, 2024 8:09:00 GMT
Labour would need to keep all their existing support and take half of the Reform vote and the Tory vote would have to remain static just for Labour to get a majority of 1. Given where things are likely to be in 5 years time it would seem an improbable scenario. Secondly I doubt Labour will have the resources to defend all of its existing gains and fight an offensive campaign against other than a handful of particularly vulnerable Tory held seats. I think this is a good second place but Labour are at least a decade off winning here. Look how long it took in Worthing once Labour emerged as a serious threat locally. |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,384
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jul 24, 2024 8:19:11 GMT
Labour doesn't have a single local councillor here & I don't see a breakthrough here as very likely in the foreseeable future. We have consistently underperformed in Andover over the years. Probably this year we did better there.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 24, 2024 9:02:19 GMT
Labour doesn't have a single local councillor here & I don't see a breakthrough here as very likely in the foreseeable future. We have consistently underperformed in Andover over the years. Probably this year we did better there. Surprisingly, Labour have had more success locally in Whitchurch and (even more counterintuitively) in Overton, Laverstoke and Steventon (which are all now in a single ward with Whitchurch) but the councillors elected there fairly rapidly fell out with the party and now sit as Independents. I don't think Labour won coucnil seats in Andover even in 1995 and you have to go back the 1970s to find Labour councillors elected there. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,011
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 24, 2024 11:34:29 GMT
Labour doesn't have a single local councillor here & I don't see a breakthrough here as very likely in the foreseeable future. We have consistently underperformed in Andover over the years. Probably this year we did better there. Surprisingly, Labour have had more success locally in Whitchurch and (even more counterintuitively) in Overton, Laverstoke and Steventon (which are all now in a single ward with Whitchurch) but the councillors elected there fairly rapidly fell out with the party and now sit as Independents. I don't think Labour won coucnil seats in Andover even in 1995 and you have to go back the 1970s to find Labour councillors elected there. The rural B&D successes for Labour were a combination of a complete collapse of the Lib Dems in those areas during the coalition (mostly by our councillors and activists leaving the party) and some keen and enthusiastic Labour campaigners who filled a void. As you say it didn't last long as they were pretty much the active NW Hants Labour Party and isolated from the rest of the district council group (and Basingstoke Labour really underperform locally compared to their potential). A combination of the Labour group not really knowing how to handle a novel rural element and being in a different constituency party pretty much doomed the endeavour. On the Basingstoke point, it'll be interesting to see what kind of bounce Labour get by now having the MP in the urban wards where they have underperformed, we saw in Portsmouth South the aftermath of such a situation in 2018. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 24, 2024 12:53:57 GMT
Surprisingly, Labour have had more success locally in Whitchurch and (even more counterintuitively) in Overton, Laverstoke and Steventon (which are all now in a single ward with Whitchurch) but the councillors elected there fairly rapidly fell out with the party and now sit as Independents. I don't think Labour won coucnil seats in Andover even in 1995 and you have to go back the 1970s to find Labour councillors elected there. The rural B&D successes for Labour were a combination of a complete collapse of the Lib Dems in those areas during the coalition (mostly by our councillors and activists leaving the party) and some keen and enthusiastic Labour campaigners who filled a void. As you say it didn't last long as they were pretty much the active NW Hants Labour Party and isolated from the rest of the district council group (and Basingstoke Labour really underperform locally compared to their potential). A combination of the Labour group not really knowing how to handle a novel rural element and being in a different constituency party pretty much doomed the endeavour. On the Basingstoke point, it'll be interesting to see what kind of bounce Labour get by now having the MP in the urban wards where they have underperformed, we saw in Portsmouth South the aftermath of such a situation in 2018. Yes, if I hadn’t used Worthing as an example then Basingstoke would have been my next choice of a Labour gain having been a long time coming. I guess it does not have the university town or cathedral city demographics that would probably sustain a local Labour Party through the troughs in national support. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 26, 2024 11:09:37 GMT
My understanding is that large bits of Andover were built as London overspill. Towns like that can be fairly good for Labour if well-worked, but also tend not to produce many Labour activists, so a) there's a tendency to underperform potential and b) if that potential Labour vote is instead worked well by Lib Dems, it's less likely that there will be the resources to win them back.
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