stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:10:00 GMT
North East Hampshire
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,432
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Post by iain on Jun 8, 2024 18:27:57 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 2:56:56 GMT
Lib Dems have won this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 2:58:59 GMT
Bloody hell. Blue wall crumbling everywhere.
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Post by where2travel on Jul 5, 2024 3:08:14 GMT
Wow. Most surprising Tory loss so far. Given the lack of comments on the thread since the start of the election I don't think anyone would have thought this would be lost, even if the Tories do end up in the low 100s.
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Post by pepperminttea on Jul 5, 2024 3:11:33 GMT
This does have the demographics of a Lib Dem gain. Assumed it would be a Tory hold because of no evidence of targeting though. Congrats to the winners!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 5, 2024 3:19:32 GMT
Wow. Most surprising Tory loss so far. Given the lack of comments on the thread since the start of the election I don't think anyone would have thought this would be lost, even if the Tories are end up in the low 100s. Noted elsewhere - he was a big, big Truss supporter. He wasn't really notable for anything else. Coffey is gone now too. It looks like proximity to Truss is lethal. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jul 5, 2024 10:32:11 GMT
Actually I doubt that. Being a Tory was lethal. Bit like us in 2015, when it gets to this scale, it doesn't matter how long you've been the MP, how hard you worked (or not), which wing of the party you're on - you're just out
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 10:50:16 GMT
Actually I doubt that. Being a Tory was lethal. Bit like us in 2015, when it gets to this scale, it doesn't matter how long you've been the MP, how hard you worked (or not), which wing of the party you're on - you're just out Though as in 2015, there were still a few exceptions to that. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jul 5, 2024 10:53:39 GMT
Yes, but my point is that those were essentially random. There is no pattern to it, eg Brexity Tories doing better at holding back Reform or moderate Tories doing better at holding us off. No such pattern
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 13:53:59 GMT
Wow. Most surprising Tory loss so far. Given the lack of comments on the thread since the start of the election I don't think anyone would have thought this would be lost, even if the Tories are end up in the low 100s. Noted elsewhere - he was a big, big Truss supporter. He wasn't really notable for anything else. Coffey is gone now too. It looks like proximity to Truss is lethal. Should her husband be worried? |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 5, 2024 17:43:20 GMT
Wow. Most surprising Tory loss so far. Given the lack of comments on the thread since the start of the election I don't think anyone would have thought this would be lost, even if the Tories are end up in the low 100s. Noted elsewhere - he was a big, big Truss supporter. He wasn't really notable for anything else. Coffey is gone now too. It looks like proximity to Truss is lethal. Totally agree with this. Truss herself, Jayawardena, Simon Clarke, Coffey, Donelan, Rees-Mogg, Trevelyan, Jake Berry and Rob Butler were all Truss allies who were essentially trussed up in winnable seats last night. It's no coincidence. |
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rcronald
Likud
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 17:45:50 GMT
Noted elsewhere - he was a big, big Truss supporter. He wasn't really notable for anything else. Coffey is gone now too. It looks like proximity to Truss is lethal. Totally agree with this. Truss herself, Jayawardena, Simon Clarke, Coffey, Donelan, Rees-Mogg, Trevelyan, Jake Berry and Rob Butler were all Truss allies who were essentially trussed up in winnable seats last night. It's no coincidence. Simon Clarke is probably not a good example. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,011
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 5, 2024 19:58:21 GMT
This result is hilarious. This is probably the one above all others that crystallises the consequences of the Conservatives governing like a bunch of idiots. In this seat the inhabitants see jumped up wannabes that have been completely failing in their job like that everyday in their work.
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Post by ccoleman on Jul 5, 2024 21:56:10 GMT
This does have the demographics of a Lib Dem gain. Assumed it would be a Tory hold because of no evidence of targeting though. Congrats to the winners! Aye, that's what I always thought. The old NE Hampshire seat was estimated to have voted Remain, and it's very affluent to boot - on paper it's precisely the kind of seat the Lib Dems should be winning. I thought the Tory majority the would simply be too large to overcome though. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 6, 2024 0:29:02 GMT
Not even a poll here, and I must admit it wasn't on my radar as a possible orange glow on the map.
Even though Jayawardena lost his seat, he was the first Tory backbencher I can remember suggesting a change for the mayoral and PCC voting system from SV to FPTP, so lots of Tories who held on last year or two months ago should thank him they they still have mandates until 2027/28.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 18, 2024 23:11:18 GMT
An unexpected result indeed.
Yateley is monolithically Lib Dem at a local level but is split between this constituency and Aldershot. The next boundary review will be interesting!
The situation in Fleet at a local level is complicated by the presence of Independent candidates and perhaps tactical candidate nominations in some wards between them and the Lib Dems.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2024 23:13:55 GMT
An unexpected result indeed. Yateley is monolithically Lib Dem at a local level but is split between this constituency and Aldershot. The next boundary review will be interesting! The situation in Fleet at a local level is complicated by the presence of Independent candidates and perhaps tactical candidate nominations in some wards between them and the Lib Dems. Not sure there's much "perhaps" about it - they're in a pretty public alliance aren't they? |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 19, 2024 5:39:59 GMT
Noted elsewhere - he was a big, big Truss supporter. He wasn't really notable for anything else. Coffey is gone now too. It looks like proximity to Truss is lethal. Totally agree with this. Truss herself, Jayawardena, Simon Clarke, Coffey, Donelan, Rees-Mogg, Trevelyan, Jake Berry and Rob Butler were all Truss allies who were essentially trussed up in winnable seats last night. It's no coincidence. Simon Clarke got in the top 10 Tory shares of the vote. Not many got over 40, but he did. This in a seat that was Labour in 2010 and 2015. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 19, 2024 5:46:29 GMT
Totally agree with this. Truss herself, Jayawardena, Simon Clarke, Coffey, Donelan, Rees-Mogg, Trevelyan, Jake Berry and Rob Butler were all Truss allies who were essentially trussed up in winnable seats last night. It's no coincidence. Simon Clarke got in the top 10 Tory shares of the vote. Not many got over 40, but he did. This in a seat that was Labour in 2010 and 2015. OK, perhaps unfair to include Clarke but the others all had worse than expected results I would say. |
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