Maidstone and Malling

[stb12]

Maidstone and Malling

[iain]

www.tmbc.gov.uk/downloads/file/3607/maidstone-and-malling-notice-of-poll-and-persons-nominated

7 candidates: main 5, British Democrats, Independent

[nyx]

Farage claims this is a potential 4-way marginal. He could be right

www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pppg96gkxo

[batman]

Labour aren't in the running surely. I don't think Reform are either really

[nyx]

Jun 24, 2024 22:37:08 GMT batman said:

Labour aren't in the running surely. I don't think Reform are either really

Notional 2019 result

Con 28562; 58.4%
LD 9114; 18.6%
Labour 8993; 18.4%
Green 1880; 3.8%
Other 358; 0.7%

Certainly feels like the sort of seat that could be won with a sub-30% vote share

[Deleted]

I think the Lib Dems will come second here because they used to do very well in Maidstone & The Weald and routinely came second in Tonbridge & Malling. Lots of private schools around here like The Judd and Tonbridge so I think that limits Labour's potential because of VAT on private schools etc. 

[Khunanup]

Jun 24, 2024 23:48:02 GMT @weld said:

I think the Lib Dems will come second here because they used to do very well in Maidstone & The Weald and routinely came second in Tonbridge & Malling. Lots of private schools around here like The Judd and Tonbridge so I think that limits Labour's potential because of VAT on private schools etc. 

Judd is a state grammar school.

[batman]

don't let the facts get in the way of a good prediction.

[heslingtonian]

Harsh to be too critical of the Lib Dems in the circumstances but this was a rare poor result and they only came fourth with 13%. They were doing well in Maidstone until recently so I don't understand what has happened here.

[iain]

Jul 6, 2024 20:06:38 GMT heslingtonian said:

Harsh to be too critical of the Lib Dems in the circumstances but this was a rare poor result and they only came fourth with 13%. They were doing well in Maidstone until recently so I don't understand what has happened here.

No national effort was put in and the local party seems to have been slowly falling apart over the past 5 years or so. I don’t really know why we’ve been declining here, but this result (which I agree was poor) is not terribly surprising given the circumstances.

[eastmidlandsright]

Jul 6, 2024 20:06:38 GMT heslingtonian said:

Harsh to be too critical of the Lib Dems in the circumstances but this was a rare poor result and they only came fourth with 13%. They were doing well in Maidstone until recently so I don't understand what has happened here.

It is very simple. It was one of those seats where it wasn't clear who the challengers to the Tories were. 

[ricmk]

All local effort into Tunbridge Wells here at the expense of decent results in seats like this.

Hard to say it wasn’t worth it given the results surely?

[clive]

It was largely due to targeting resources to TW. However there probably was a problem additionally caused by the failure of a delivery company engaged to fill in for the lack of activists deliverers that failed to deliver the majority of the LD campaigns leaflets, and just took them all to RM in the last week. so 4 different leaflets were partly delivered in one go by RM on the last Monday and Tuesday, along with a dozen other leaflets from other parties, instead of the planned one a week, which had been paid for. Additionally many of these, up to half, were not delivered at all or misdelivered to the wrong constituencies. As indeed was the Rm freepost which went to the wrong wards in large quantities.

[batman]

Although the LDs have often enjoyed local success in Maidstone, I tend to think it's not an area of natural strength for them. Tunbridge Wells, like several spa towns, has a rather more promising demographic profile as a constituency.