Horsham

[stb12]

Horsham

[carolus]

www.horsham.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/136393/Statement-of-Persons-Nominated,-Notice-of-Poll-and-Situation-of-Polling-Stations-Horsham.pdf

7 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK, SDP, Peace Party

[cogload]

This seat has a majority of over 21k. Today it was visited by Sunak. Now I maybe getting old, but back in the day most prime ministers when electioneering rarely, if ever, visited seats with that sort of majority unless the polling was absolutely dire.

This isn't in danger is it?

N.b I have no knowledge either, internal or external of what the state of play is here.

[noorderling]

Jun 10, 2024 11:05:41 GMT cogload said:

This seat has a majority of over 21k. Today it was visited by Sunak. Now I maybe getting old, but back in the day most prime ministers when electioneering rarely, if ever, visited seats with that sort of majority unless the polling was absolutely dire.

This isn't in danger is it?

N.b I have no knowledge either. Internal or external of what the state of play is here.

Sunak visited Melksham last week. Also hardly a town in a marginal seat.

I’m getting (reverse) Hague 2001 vibes: he campaigned in Torbay, a seat lost in 1997 by just 12 votes, which you would easily take if you were doing well. The fact he saw the need to campaign there really gave the game away.

To visit seats like Horsham only confirms how badly you are doing and should give a huge boost to the tactical vote and given his low popularity, probably helped Toey support not all

[jdc]

Jun 10, 2024 11:05:41 GMT cogload said:

This seat has a majority of over 21k. Today it was visited by Sunak. Now I maybe getting old, but back in the day most prime ministers when electioneering rarely, if ever, visited seats with that sort of majority unless the polling was absolutely dire.

This isn't in danger is it?

N.b I have no knowledge either, internal or external of what the state of play is here.

Lib Dem target 59 from Tories, swing required 15% following minor boundary changes, available left-wing non-LD vote to squeeze around 20%.

I'd say it's in danger.

[greenhert]

The Reform UK candidate for Horsham, Hugo Miller, has been dropped by the party after racist posts on his Facebook page were uncovered: www.theargus.co.uk/news/24374825.general-election-reform-candidate-horsham-loses-partys-support/

[Clark]

Jun 10, 2024 11:38:01 GMT jdc said:

Jun 10, 2024 11:05:41 GMT cogload said:

This seat has a majority of over 21k. Today it was visited by Sunak. Now I maybe getting old, but back in the day most prime ministers when electioneering rarely, if ever, visited seats with that sort of majority unless the polling was absolutely dire.

This isn't in danger is it?

N.b I have no knowledge either, internal or external of what the state of play is here.

Lib Dem target 59 from Tories, swing required 15% following minor boundary changes, available left-wing non-LD vote to squeeze around 20%.

I'd say it's in danger.

Good call.

This was a shocker to me. I thought Horsham was solid true blue safe.

[batman]

Well the LDs have controlled the council (although that isn't always coterminous) more than once. I have often had the feeling that the size of the Tory majority in the parliamentary seat flattered them a bit. And Labour are generally weak throughout making it clear who the main challenger is. Nevertheless it's a very striking victory, as with Mid Sussex. Horsham town itself doesn't look like a typical Tory stronghold, and it isn't negligible in size, but there are some very comfortable-looking places making up much of the rest of the constituency.

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 8, 2024 21:38:14 GMT batman said:

Well the LDs have controlled the council (although that isn't always coterminous) more than once. I have often had the feeling that the size of the Tory majority in the parliamentary seat flattered them a bit. And Labour are generally weak throughout making it clear who the main challenger is. Nevertheless it's a very striking victory, as with Mid Sussex. Horsham town itself doesn't look like a typical Tory stronghold, and it isn't negligible in size, but there are some very comfortable-looking places making up much of the rest of the constituency.

My cousin Gill (see the Mid Sussex thread) was constantly frustrated by our inability to capture that seat. Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath were good territory but East Grinstead stayed with the Tories. But even that has fallen to us now.

[steve]

Jul 8, 2024 21:43:42 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jul 8, 2024 21:38:14 GMT batman said:

Well the LDs have controlled the council (although that isn't always coterminous) more than once. I have often had the feeling that the size of the Tory majority in the parliamentary seat flattered them a bit. And Labour are generally weak throughout making it clear who the main challenger is. Nevertheless it's a very striking victory, as with Mid Sussex. Horsham town itself doesn't look like a typical Tory stronghold, and it isn't negligible in size, but there are some very comfortable-looking places making up much of the rest of the constituency.

My cousin Gill (see the Mid Sussex thread) was constantly frustrated by our inability to capture that seat. Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath were good territory but East Grinstead stayed with the Tories. But even that has fallen to us now.

Losing East Grinstead and getting some Lib Dem friendlier territory in the boundary review was a big boost.

[cogload]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001294