Havant

[stb12]

Havant

[Ports]

www.havant.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/Statement%20of%20Person%27s%20Nominated%20%26%20Notice%20of%20Poll%20UKPGE.pdf

Con: Alan Mak
Lab: Stefanie Harvey
LD: Gayathri Sathyanath
Reform: John Perry
Green: Netty Shepherd
Workers Party: Jennifer Alemanno

[heslingtonian]

Shockingly bad Conservative MP here nearly came unstuck. So many more talented colleagues lost their seats.

[Ports]

Jul 8, 2024 19:33:52 GMT heslingtonian said:

Shockingly bad Conservative MP here nearly came unstuck. So many more talented colleagues lost their seats.

Certainly one of the most surprising and worst ministerial appointments - admittedly during the Boris interregnum during which anything went but that sort of accentuates the point.

[jakegb]

Jul 8, 2024 19:33:52 GMT heslingtonian said:

Shockingly bad Conservative MP here nearly came unstuck. So many more talented colleagues lost their seats.

I have not heard anyone in the constituency say anything good about him. Very lucky. 

Penny Mordaunt had far more gravitas - and though losing narrowly, her swing was quite a bit lower than Mak's (it was just that Mak had the much safer seat). 

Though admittedly the swing against both Mak and Mordaunt were both dwarfed by Keegan in Chichester next door: that was truly shocking, in traditionally the safest of safest blue seats. 

[heslingtonian]

Jul 8, 2024 21:11:09 GMT jakegb said:

Jul 8, 2024 19:33:52 GMT heslingtonian said:

Shockingly bad Conservative MP here nearly came unstuck. So many more talented colleagues lost their seats.

I have not heard anyone in the constituency say anything good about him. Very lucky. 

Penny Mordaunt had far more gravitas - and though losing narrowly, her swing was quite a bit lower than Mak's (it was just that Mak had the much safer seat). 

Though admittedly the swing against both Mak and Mordaunt were both dwarfed by Keegan in Chichester next door: that was truly shocking, in traditionally the safest of safest blue seats. 

Keegan appeared a bad political communicator (the "f*cking good job" interview was especially tone deaf) and was perhaps a bit too working class Northern in style for such a middle class Southern constituency. Having said that I still struggle to see why she was quite so toxic at this election.

[heslingtonian]

Jul 8, 2024 21:11:09 GMT jakegb said:

Jul 8, 2024 19:33:52 GMT heslingtonian said:

Shockingly bad Conservative MP here nearly came unstuck. So many more talented colleagues lost their seats.

I have not heard anyone in the constituency say anything good about him. Very lucky. 

Penny Mordaunt had far more gravitas - and though losing narrowly, her swing was quite a bit lower than Mak's (it was just that Mak had the much safer seat). 

Though admittedly the swing against both Mak and Mordaunt were both dwarfed by Keegan in Chichester next door: that was truly shocking, in traditionally the safest of safest blue seats. 

Have heard Mak's nickname in Havant is "plastic Mak" on account of his insincerity when he engages with the public. Definitely a negative personal vote here. Very lucky to hold on.

[jakegb]

Most definitely.
He'll have to watch Reform closely too - looks like their strongest performance in Hants/surrounding area.
If he/his party don't make inroads, then this could be a key target seat for them next time around.

[jakegb]

Jul 8, 2024 21:20:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 8, 2024 21:11:09 GMT jakegb said:

I have not heard anyone in the constituency say anything good about him. Very lucky. 

Penny Mordaunt had far more gravitas - and though losing narrowly, her swing was quite a bit lower than Mak's (it was just that Mak had the much safer seat). 

Though admittedly the swing against both Mak and Mordaunt were both dwarfed by Keegan in Chichester next door: that was truly shocking, in traditionally the safest of safest blue seats. 

Keegan appeared a bad political communicator (the "f*cking good job" interview was especially tone deaf) and was perhaps a bit too working class Northern in style for such a middle class Southern constituency. Having said that I still struggle to see why she was quite so toxic at this election.

I am flabbergasted by the size of the majority; 12,000 is miles off a close-run contest, and is on par with Winchester (a very marginal Tory seat after the 2019 election). 
I don't begrudge the Lib Dems their moment; the last few elections have been pretty grim for them. But they will have to tread carefully in their new seats; their voters will want to hear more than just sewage in our rivers and fixing social care (two very important issues, granted). A soft-left approach to economics is unlikely to enthuse the wealthy residents of Bosham, Birdham etc. 

[batman]

Jul 8, 2024 21:20:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 8, 2024 21:11:09 GMT jakegb said:

I have not heard anyone in the constituency say anything good about him. Very lucky. 

Penny Mordaunt had far more gravitas - and though losing narrowly, her swing was quite a bit lower than Mak's (it was just that Mak had the much safer seat). 

Though admittedly the swing against both Mak and Mordaunt were both dwarfed by Keegan in Chichester next door: that was truly shocking, in traditionally the safest of safest blue seats. 

Keegan appeared a bad political communicator (the "f*cking good job" interview was especially tone deaf) and was perhaps a bit too working class Northern in style for such a middle class Southern constituency. Having said that I still struggle to see why she was quite so toxic at this election.

I really don't think that Gillian Keegan lost because she was seen as northern & working-class. 

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2024 21:39:41 GMT jakegb said:

Jul 8, 2024 21:20:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

Keegan appeared a bad political communicator (the "f*cking good job" interview was especially tone deaf) and was perhaps a bit too working class Northern in style for such a middle class Southern constituency. Having said that I still struggle to see why she was quite so toxic at this election.

I am flabbergasted by the size of the majority; 12,000 is miles off a close-run contest, and is on par with Winchester (a very marginal Tory seat after the 2019 election). 
I don't begrudge the Lib Dems their moment; the last few elections have been pretty grim for them. But they will have to tread carefully in their new seats; their voters will want to hear more than just sewage in our rivers and fixing social care (two very important issues, granted). A soft-left approach to economics is unlikely to enthuse the wealthy residents of Bosham, Birdham etc. 

It is an interesting contradiction they find themselves with. The anti-tory tactical narrative has by default aligned them with the left, but it's quite obvious that a large chunk of their 2024 voters were 2015 and probably 2017 Tory voters. For now it's ok and probably actively helpful but it's going to be a very difficult tightrope to walk when Labour have been in power for 10-15 years