Gosport

[stb12]

Gosport

[iain]

www.gosport.gov.uk/media/4838/2024-PGE-Statement-of-Persons-Nominated-Notice-of-Poll-Situation-of-Polling-Stations/pdf/2024_PGE_-_Statement_of_Persons_Nominated__Notice_of_Poll___Situation_of_Polling_Stations.pdf?m=1717778102373

8 candidates: main 5, Hampshire Independent, Heritage, Independent

[Clark]

Surprised how well the Tories did here - I thought Labour might win. Over 40% share and 6,000 majority.

[matureleft]

Jul 6, 2024 16:15:57 GMT Clark said:

Surprised how well the Tories did here - I thought Labour might win. Over 40% share and 6,000 majority.

Oddly the closest Labour has ever come was not 1997 but 2001. I’m pretty sure we have someone on here who would comment on Gosport Labour (admittedly not from a supportive perspective) Khunanup ? 

I used to pass through it when young and my dad worked there when it was a main submarine base and training centre so I saw some bits then. I assume that it took a pasting during WW2. Not a pretty place. 

[steve]

Jul 6, 2024 16:15:57 GMT Clark said:

Surprised how well the Tories did here - I thought Labour might win. Over 40% share and 6,000 majority.

I don't know whether this is still true but this used to be quite a working class constituency but it voted Conservative because of its links to the military.

[heslingtonian]

Jul 6, 2024 17:55:36 GMT steve said:

Jul 6, 2024 16:15:57 GMT Clark said:

Surprised how well the Tories did here - I thought Labour might win. Over 40% share and 6,000 majority.

I don't know whether this is still true but this used to be quite a working class constituency but it voted Conservative because of its links to the military.

I can only think Caroline Dinenage is relatively popular. Maybe being Fred Dinenage's daughter helps endear her to older voters.

[john07]

Jul 6, 2024 17:55:36 GMT steve said:

Jul 6, 2024 16:15:57 GMT Clark said:

Surprised how well the Tories did here - I thought Labour might win. Over 40% share and 6,000 majority.

I don't know whether this is still true but this used to be quite a working class constituency but it voted Conservative because of its links to the military.

So did Aldershot.

[steve]

Jul 6, 2024 18:06:14 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 6, 2024 17:55:36 GMT steve said:

I don't know whether this is still true but this used to be quite a working class constituency but it voted Conservative because of its links to the military.

I can only think Caroline Dinenage is relatively popular. Maybe being Fred Dinenage's daughter helps endear her to older voters.

How?

[Khunanup]

Jul 6, 2024 17:01:05 GMT matureleft said:

Jul 6, 2024 16:15:57 GMT Clark said:

Surprised how well the Tories did here - I thought Labour might win. Over 40% share and 6,000 majority.

Oddly the closest Labour has ever come was not 1997 but 2001. I’m pretty sure we have someone on here who would comment on Gosport Labour (admittedly not from a supportive perspective) Khunanup ? 

I used to pass through it when young and my dad worked there when it was a main submarine base and training centre so I saw some bits then. I assume that it took a pasting during WW2. Not a pretty place. 

Gosport Labour as a campaigning organisation just aren't very good. Apart from their by-election success on Thursday (which they scraped despite it being a perfect opportunity for them) they've been reduced to a single ward on the council and are nowhere in some very natural Labour areas.
Gosport is also a place of strong identity (and parochialism) and with Caroline Dineage having dug herself in well with local connections being key, it's no surprise that she hung on when others fell by the wayside.
And I still have no idea why there was a shadow over the Labour candidate not being allowed to stand until the very last minute which can't have helped their pursuit.

[batman]

I can't claim to know this area, but I have heard that while Gosport itself is definitely working class Lee, Hill Head & Stubbington (they're all still included right?) are much less so. There is no doubt that the services vote has been very helpful in preventing the Tories from facing a stronger challenge from Labour, but it's very much present in Portsmouth too, and it didn't stop Labour there.

[Khunanup]

Jul 6, 2024 20:20:35 GMT batman said:

I can't claim to know this area, but I have heard that while Gosport itself is definitely working class Lee, Hill Head & Stubbington (they're all still included right?) are much less so. There is no doubt that the services vote has been very helpful in preventing the Tories from facing a stronger challenge from Labour, but it's very much present in Portsmouth too, and it didn't stop Labour there.

You're right, the peripheral areas to the west are not natural Labour territory but when you have the town of Gosport itself that dominates the constituency there's no real reason on a situation like this that they shouldn't be like elsewhere.

Take Havant for instance, Labour got awfully close with a constituency with Hayling Island and Emsworth in.

[batman]

Interesting; in 2001 Labour were closer in Gosport than in Havant & I think the boundaries are fairly comparable. I've always thought Labour have serially underperformed in both constituencies. One can argue they still are, but this is a much improved performanace in Havant. Gosport, not really all that much. Fareham was also much closer than usual in 2001.

[heslingtonian]

Jul 6, 2024 22:20:57 GMT batman said:

Interesting; in 2001 Labour were closer in Gosport than in Havant & I think the boundaries are fairly comparable. I've always thought Labour have serially underperformed in both constituencies. One can argue they still are, but this is a much improved performanace in Havant. Gosport, not really all that much. Fareham was also much closer than usual in 2001.

I think a big part of the Gosport v Havant dynamic is the big difference in the calibre and likeability of the two individual MPs which was reflected in these latest results.

[Khunanup]

Jul 6, 2024 23:31:44 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 6, 2024 22:20:57 GMT batman said:

Interesting; in 2001 Labour were closer in Gosport than in Havant & I think the boundaries are fairly comparable. I've always thought Labour have serially underperformed in both constituencies. One can argue they still are, but this is a much improved performanace in Havant. Gosport, not really all that much. Fareham was also much closer than usual in 2001.

I think a big part of the Gosport v Havant dynamic is the big difference in the calibre and likeability of the two individual MPs which was reflected in these latest results.

That's certainly the case, but it's also worth bearing in mind that Labour have made real inroads in local elections in the last couple of years in Havant whereas they're still in a state of inertia in Gosport (which reflects capability to campaign).

[tonyhil]

Andover is another medium size Hampshire town where Labour has never managed to make inroads.

[cogload]

www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001252

[matureleft]

Jul 7, 2024 5:58:03 GMT tonyhil said:

Andover is another medium size Hampshire town where Labour has never managed to make inroads.

I suspect ‘never’ is only a little strong. They had 5 Andover councillors in 1973 and continued a presence through the 1970s but it looks like, as in one or two places, the formation of the SDP severely disabled them in the two wards they tended to win and they even missed out on the mid-1990s period when Labour flowered in all sorts of places. 

[Foggy]

I believe this is the most deprived constituency in the country to have stuck with the Tories through thick and thin but don't actually have the figures.