stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:41:02 GMT
Earley and Woodley
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Post by loderingo on Jun 7, 2024 21:43:40 GMT
Con - Pauline Jorgensen - lives in the constituency
Lab - Yuan Yang - lives in the constituency
LD - Tahir Maher - lives in the constituency
Green - Gary Shacklady - lives in the constituency
SDP - Alistair Hunter - lives in the constituency
Full house of locals
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 7, 2024 21:50:25 GMT
Another Where and Where.
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Post by loderingo on Jun 7, 2024 21:56:27 GMT
Reading suburbia
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 3:49:31 GMT
Reading South East. They just don't like admitting it. A 3 way between the big 3 on paper - Reform will have a minimal impact here. Pauline Jorgensen is well known and has a good shot at it, but I think the Liberal has a good shot in the Woodley part at least. Never heard of the Labour candidate - think she'll do well enough in Whitley as they always vote Labour, but not well enough to win as Lower Earley is not good territory for someone without a strong local profile. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 11, 2024 6:13:48 GMT
This is a good candidate for biggest surprise Conservative hold of the whole election given recent local election results, the high local profile of the Conservative candidate versus the low profile of the Labour candidate and no Reform candidate.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 6:19:11 GMT
Vote Earley and vote often
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Post by arnieg on Jun 11, 2024 6:31:07 GMT
Reading South East. They just don't like admitting it. A 3 way between the big 3 on paper - Reform will have a minimal impact here. Pauline Jorgensen is well known and has a good shot at it, but I think the Liberal has a good shot in the Woodley part at least. Never heard of the Labour candidate - think she'll do well enough in Whitley as they always vote Labour, but not well enough to win as Lower Earley is not good territory for someone without a strong local profile. I've heard positive opinions expressed about the Labour candidate too, and clearly Lib Dems interest in Wokingham might make it easier for her. |
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,741
Member is Online
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Post by carolus on Jun 11, 2024 6:33:15 GMT
The LD results here in May weren't as strong as might have been expected. Whilst that might attributed partially to the chaos of all ups on new boundaries, I suspect it isn't a great sign for our chancs in the constituency.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 11, 2024 8:00:13 GMT
Vote Earley and vote often
If only I could, I Woodley.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 13:01:48 GMT
This is a good candidate for biggest surprise Conservative hold of the whole election given recent local election results, the high local profile of the Conservative candidate versus the low profile of the Labour candidate and no Reform candidate. Surprise Tory marginal - maybe, but Labour have never been the main contenders here; Earley, Lower Earley and Woodley are all Liberal places, while Whitley and Shinny North are the only real areas of Labour strength. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 13:06:41 GMT
Reading South East. They just don't like admitting it. A 3 way between the big 3 on paper - Reform will have a minimal impact here. Pauline Jorgensen is well known and has a good shot at it, but I think the Liberal has a good shot in the Woodley part at least. Never heard of the Labour candidate - think she'll do well enough in Whitley as they always vote Labour, but not well enough to win as Lower Earley is not good territory for someone without a strong local profile. I've heard positive opinions expressed about the Labour candidate too, and clearly Lib Dems interest in Wokingham might make it easier for her. Potentially Lib Dem focus on Woky/Newbury may make it easier, but then there are a fair number of LD activists who could do both Woky and Reading South East/Earley and Woodley in one day. Positive opinions sure - but someone with a decent local profile (e.g. not a fan of Cllr Rachel Eden, but she was high profile enough) is needed to get areas like Whitley to turn out. A couple of months of quickfire introduction isn't going to work. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 13:12:29 GMT
The LD results here in May weren't as strong as might have been expected. Whilst that might attributed partially to the chaos of all ups on new boundaries, I suspect it isn't a great sign for our chancs in the constituency. There are complications with strong borough level independents in Shinfield - and a lot of the remaining Tory councillors will have been elected on a strong personal vote. Does that mean many people will vote for Pauline Jorgensen as a personal vote, outside of Lower Earley? I'm not convinced of it. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 11, 2024 14:08:15 GMT
This is a good candidate for biggest surprise Conservative hold of the whole election given recent local election results, the high local profile of the Conservative candidate versus the low profile of the Labour candidate and no Reform candidate. Surprise Tory marginal - maybe, but Labour have never been the main contenders here; Earley, Lower Earley and Woodley are all Liberal places, while Whitley and Shinny North are the only real areas of Labour strength. Aren't you forgetting Bulmy and Cory, not to mention Churchy |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 14:18:39 GMT
Surprise Tory marginal - maybe, but Labour have never been the main contenders here; Earley, Lower Earley and Woodley are all Liberal places, while Whitley and Shinny North are the only real areas of Labour strength. Aren't you forgetting Bulmy and Cory, not to mention Churchy Bulmershe? Not so much these days since Carl Doran left the party, Wokingham Borough Labour Party focuses on Woky itself mostly and the shower across the border in RBC leave nothing to be desired. Church ward is the eastern end of Whitley (the place) and votes mostly similarly! |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 11, 2024 17:38:31 GMT
This is a good candidate for biggest surprise Conservative hold of the whole election given recent local election results, the high local profile of the Conservative candidate versus the low profile of the Labour candidate and no Reform candidate. Surprise Tory marginal - maybe, but Labour have never been the main contenders here; Earley, Lower Earley and Woodley are all Liberal places, while Whitley and Shinny North are the only real areas of Labour strength. I don't have any data but I'd be surprised if Woodley and Earley (excluding Lower Earley and the university) weren't both usually fairly comfortably Conservative at general elections. Woodley would also probably get a decent Labour vote; Earley might too just because of the University. Lower Earley is generally more inclined to the Lib Dems but it's where Pauline Jorgensen lives and I suspect she will probably top the poll there. It will be interesting to see what happens if she does win overall, though. Pauline Jorgensen effectively is the Wokingham Borough Council Conservative Party nowadays. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 17:47:42 GMT
Surprise Tory marginal - maybe, but Labour have never been the main contenders here; Earley, Lower Earley and Woodley are all Liberal places, while Whitley and Shinny North are the only real areas of Labour strength. I don't have any data but I'd be surprised if Woodley and Earley (excluding Lower Earley and the university) weren't both usually fairly comfortably Conservative at general elections. Woodley would also probably get a decent Labour vote; Earley might too just because of the University. Lower Earley is generally more inclined to the Lib Dems but it's where Pauline Jorgensen lives and I suspect she will probably top the poll there. It will be interesting to see what happens if she does win overall, though. Pauline Jorgensen effectively is the Wokingham Borough Council Conservative Party nowadays. Historically Woodley/Earley would have been Tory, but not now. I think the UoR may give a bit of a Labour vote, but not at the scale they need - the agriculture department won't be endorsing Labour etc. Woodley's Labour vote at a GE is a personal vote for Rodda. As for Lower Earley, I broadly agree, but they'll be struggling elsewhere as resources are spread too thin across Berks for the Tories for them to make a dent. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 11, 2024 18:03:39 GMT
stb12 I think this one could be a good one for a poll. Con, Lab or Lib Dem
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jul 13, 2024 11:23:46 GMT
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 13, 2024 13:00:17 GMT
As I guessed would happen, the 2019 LD vote ended up being squeezed enough by Labour for them to win despite other factors working against them here (the majority here is definitely slim enough that those suggesting the possibility of a surprise CON hold have ended up being partially vindicated). I'm now especially curious as to how they did in Bulmershe and Whitegates.
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