Dartford

[stb12]

Dartford

[carolus]

www.dartford.gov.uk/downloads/file/2314/notice-of-poll-persons-nominated-and-polling-locations

5 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK

[andrewp]

This might be just about the most surprising Lab gain to me.  The Tories have held up relatively well in local elections here, although that obviously doesn’t give any indication of Reform strength. Lab won with 34.6% here

[batman]

A year ago it would have seemed surprising. But the longer Labour's opinion poll lead refused to budge the more I thought that this one would go along with its neighbours along the north Kent estuary & coast. I ended up thinking (correctly) that the Tories would lose here & also in Sittingbourne & Sheppey, as well as in the less difficult other targets. Most of the subregional seats tend towards the volatile and a winning national Labour Party increasingly scoops most of them. The last time Labour won without winning most of north Kent was October 1974 & even then 3 of those seats were won, although Faversham, Gillingham, Canterbury & the 2 Thanet seats were not. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tories one day re-establish what appears to be an unassailable lead in most of them, if & when they start winning again, only to see them all reeled in when Labour regains power once more

[carlton43]

Jul 7, 2024 21:12:07 GMT andrewp said:

This might be just about the most surprising Lab gain to me.  The Tories have held up relatively well in local elections here, although that obviously doesn’t give any indication of Reform strength. Lab won with 34.6% here

As a former Kent man who has worked there and politicked there, I fully identify with them in voting for good sensible local councillors but being incandescent with rage over the balls up from May to Sunak and the pissing away of the Boris earned majority.  They will soon slide back or start to back Reform instead.  They won't have made their minds up yet any more than I have.  Is Reform a medium term option with legs or an ephemeral one-off vanity project, and does even Farage know yet?

[Andrew_S]

Boundary changes knocked 3.8% off the Tory majority and they lost by 2.7%.

[batman]

This along with Portsmouth North were widely regarded as the most likely seats to lose bellwether status. Neither of them did in the end. It would be interesting to gain an insight from someone who knows the area (not me by any stretch of the imagination) as to why Labour did so much less well in the last local elections than in neighbouring boroughs, but ended up winning anyway. Dartford will be remembered by experienced poll-watchers as the former local government base of Anthony Wells, who for some years was a Tory councillor on Dartford council.

[The Bishop]

Though the Wikipedia article discussing bellwethers is wrong about Portsmouth North and its predecessor, as Frank Judd just held on to Portsmouth West in 1970.

So it is actually one of the 1974 brigade - along with the likes of Northampton North, Loughborough, Watford and some Medway seats.

[nyx]

Aug 15, 2024 18:51:05 GMT batman said:

This along with Portsmouth North were widely regarded as the most likely seats to lose bellwether status. Neither of them did in the end. 

Only if one defines "bellwether" by the broad definition of "votes for the winning party regardless of margin", which is not especially useful.

I wouldn't personally consider seats which would clearly go Conservative if the Tories were to get 200 seats nationally to be bellwethers. Somewhere like Worcester feels more like a bellwether.

[batman]

That's probably not untrue, although its bellwether status is newer. It had never voted Labour before 1997, although Labour missed by only 4 votes in 1945.

[Sibboleth]

Aug 21, 2024 15:06:19 GMT batman said:

That's probably not untrue, although its bellwether status is newer. It had never voted Labour before 1997, although Labour missed by only 4 votes in 1945.

Though, as is often the case with cathedral cities and large county towns, the interesting question is what it would have done had its boundaries been tighter in the 60s and 70s. A lot of important social changes happened in these places postwar that didn't show up electorally until the seats were reduced in size due to population growth.