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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 17, 2024 14:42:42 GMT
Others collectivly on 3? Reform and Greens? (Heritage and Workers I can see on being <1%) Yes. The extent of tactical voting here in the by-election was wild. That, plus this really isn't natural Reform territory (83% - the highest EU referendum turnout and 55% Remain). I think the private school VAT issue will actually have less purchase in Bucks because of the grammar schools. That said, this seat isn't far from Eton. You don't get the same amount of tactical voting in general elections though. For example Labour only got 3.6% in the 2016 Richmond Park by-election, then went up to 9.1% in 2017, allowing Zac Goldsmith to regain the seat. |
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 15:16:49 GMT
Yes. In my constituency there are some voters who will not vote tactically in a general election but will do so at other times. It can get quite weird, I have met voters who have voted LD in local elections where Labour had a chance or at least a strong vote and Labour in general elections where this was not the case. Although that is pretty rare. If I had been the candidate in the by-election, I would have got a bit more than 3.6%, but I don't think I would have saved Labour's deposit, not quite.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 17, 2024 15:31:09 GMT
Tories were clearly below 60% here at the last GE even with the boundary changes, so to claim they will hold on to 50% based on that alone - never mind that most of this seat had a memorable byelection in the interim - is a distinctly brave prediction. Plus just 3% for all of Labour/Green/Reform (never mind minor candidates) is obvious nonsense.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 17, 2024 15:42:39 GMT
Others collectivly on 3? Reform and Greens? (Heritage and Workers I can see on being <1%) Yes. The extent of tactical voting here in the by-election was wild. That, plus this really isn't natural Reform territory (83% - the highest EU referendum turnout and 55% Remain). I think the private school VAT issue will actually have less purchase in Bucks because of the grammar schools. That said, this seat isn't far from Eton. Labour will easily save their deposit, Reform likewise. There's no way the top two parties will get 97% between them. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 17, 2024 16:47:11 GMT
Tories were clearly below 60% here at the last GE even with the boundary changes, so to claim they will hold on to 50% based on that alone - never mind that most of this seat had a memorable byelection in the interim - is a distinctly brave prediction. Plus just 3% for all of Labour/Green/Reform (never mind minor candidates) is obvious nonsense. Is "brave" now a synonym for "ludicrous" ? |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 17, 2024 17:05:15 GMT
Locally, this is still a true blue heartland, and that was as true in 1993 as it is today. Even in 1997, the Tories regained Christchurch from Diana Maddock. CON 50% LDEM 47% OTH 3% Presumably because there haven't been any local elections since 2021? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 18:17:09 GMT
Yes. The extent of tactical voting here in the by-election was wild. That, plus this really isn't natural Reform territory (83% - the highest EU referendum turnout and 55% Remain). I think the private school VAT issue will actually have less purchase in Bucks because of the grammar schools. That said, this seat isn't far from Eton. Labour will easily save their deposit, Reform likewise. There's no way the top two parties will get 97% between them. Perhaps not, although Conservatives and Lib Dems combined got 96% between them in Westmorland & Lonsdale in 2010. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 17, 2024 18:26:44 GMT
Labour will easily save their deposit, Reform likewise. There's no way the top two parties will get 97% between them. Perhaps not, although Conservatives and Lib Dems combined got 96% between them in Westmorland & Lonsdale in 2010. Yes I know (see the post I put in that thread speculating how high the Lab vote could go this time). But crucially we’re not in 2010 (a bad year for the third party in that seat) nor are we in Westmorland & Lonsdale a seat in which Labour has always come third (or below in) and one which only had 4 candidates back then. Westmorland & Lonsdale in 1997 might be a better comparison. There they won 20%. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 17, 2024 21:10:42 GMT
Others collectivly on 3? Reform and Greens? (Heritage and Workers I can see on being <1%) Yes. The extent of tactical voting here in the by-election was wild. That, plus this really isn't natural Reform territory (83% - the highest EU referendum turnout and 55% Remain). I think the private school VAT issue will actually have less purchase in Bucks because of the grammar schools. That said, this seat isn't far from Eton. What? Chesham and Eton are about 25 miles apart from each other, and the transport links in both places do not head in the direction of the other. Would you describe Stanmore as not far from Eton as well? Not that proximity to Eton means anything really - people who send their kids to Eton don't do so because of proximity, and even places that actually are close to Eton do not even consider it relevant to their local area. Even the ones who send their kids to private school aren't sending them to that one. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2024 6:17:39 GMT
Yes. The extent of tactical voting here in the by-election was wild. That, plus this really isn't natural Reform territory (83% - the highest EU referendum turnout and 55% Remain). I think the private school VAT issue will actually have less purchase in Bucks because of the grammar schools. That said, this seat isn't far from Eton. What? Chesham and Eton are about 25 miles apart from each other, and the transport links in both places do not head in the direction of the other. Would you describe Stanmore as not far from Eton as well? Not that proximity to Eton means anything really - people who send their kids to Eton don't do so because of proximity, and even places that actually are to Eton do not even consider it relevant to their local area. Even the ones who send their kids to private school aren't sending them to that one. Quite, there's a reason why such issues aren't being brought up for Slough.
In general I'm not sure I understand the relevance of private school VAT here. Labour voters in a constituency where they have no hope and there's a very obvious tactical alternative are probably not against that policy, unless its remit extends to miniature violin lessons.
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Post by stodge on Jun 22, 2024 19:00:31 GMT
Spent a very pleasant afternoon in Old Amersham today.
Plenty of LD diamonds and the odd Conservative who apparently is "Delivering for the Community" (is he the local postie or does he do the Amazon deliveries?).
Nothing for anyone else but in truth not much evidence of a full scale marginal campaign as far as I could see.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 1, 2024 20:30:58 GMT
Drove through some of the Chalfonts, new Amersham and Chesham today. Lots of election posters. I would say the Lib Dem diamonds comfortably outnumbered the Conservative posters by 2:1 but definitely more Conservative posters than I've seen in other constituencies. I suspect this will stay Lib Dem but wouldn't want a huge amount resting on it.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 23, 2024 18:30:43 GMT
Do people think this would have gone Lib Dem had there not been a mid term by-election? Obviously we will never know for sure but in that scenario assuming the same candidates at this election, I think it could very possibly have been a Lib Dem gain similar to seats like Wokingham and Maidenhead.
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Post by batman on Jul 23, 2024 18:45:06 GMT
Demographically the seat isn't that different from Maidenhead. It's perhaps a little more affluent still, but not much in it.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 23, 2024 18:45:24 GMT
Do people think this would have gone Lib Dem had there not been a mid term by-election? Obviously we will never know for sure but in that scenario assuming the same candidates at this election, I think it could very possibly have been a Lib Dem gain similar to seats like Wokingham and Maidenhead. I think the LDs would have gained it personally. Would the Conservatives have saved any of the seats lost in by elections had the by election not happened- I fancy they wouldn’t have lost Tiverton & Minehead or North Shropshire in 2024, and possibly not Honiton & Sidmouth, without by elections, but they may have lost the rest. Would B Johnson have lost Uxbridge & S Ruislip had he been standing there in 2024. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 23, 2024 18:54:28 GMT
Do people think this would have gone Lib Dem had there not been a mid term by-election? Obviously we will never know for sure but in that scenario assuming the same candidates at this election, I think it could very possibly have been a Lib Dem gain similar to seats like Wokingham and Maidenhead. I think the LDs would have gained it personally. Would the Conservatives have saved any of the seats lost in by election had the by election not happened- I fancy they wouldn’t have lost Tiverton & Minehead or North Shropshire in 2024, and possibly not Honiton & Sidmouth, without by elections, but they may have lost the rest. Would B Johnson have lost Uxbridge & S Ruislip had he been standing there in 2024. I think North Shropshire would have almost certainly have stayed Conservative without the Owen Paterson episode and the resulting by-election. Tiverton & Minehead and Honiton & Sidmouth are debatable especially seeing how well the Liberal Democrats did in Somerset in the former and the Claire Wright effect potentially in the latter. Hard to say on Johnson. My gut says if he had been Prime Minister he might have just about hung on in Uxbridge & S Ruislip as there would have been no Liz Truss as PM but it's hard to say as I'm sure in that scenario he'd have found a way to disgrace himself in the last two years. Also this scenario assumes Partygate either didn't happen or he survived it which is quite hard to assess. |
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Post by Johncrane on Jul 23, 2024 19:11:53 GMT
I think the LDs would have gained it personally. Would the Conservatives have saved any of the seats lost in by election had the by election not happened- I fancy they wouldn’t have lost Tiverton & Minehead or North Shropshire in 2024, and possibly not Honiton & Sidmouth, without by elections, but they may have lost the rest. Would B Johnson have lost Uxbridge & S Ruislip had he been standing there in 2024. I think North Shropshire would have almost certainly have stayed Conservative without the Owen Paterson episode and the resulting by-election. Tiverton & Minehead and Honiton & Sidmouth are debatable especially seeing how well the Liberal Democrats did in Somerset in the former and the Claire Wright effect potentially in the latter. Hard to say on Johnson. My gut says if he had been Prime Minister he might have just about hung on in Uxbridge & S Ruislip as there would have been no Liz Truss as PM but it's hard to say as I'm sure in that scenario he'd have found a way to disgrace himself in the last two years. Also this scenario assumes Partygate either didn't happen or he survived it which is quite hard to assess. IMO, even if we assume that in a timeline that's exactly the same as ours except Boris stands again in 2024, there's a very good chance he wins, there was only 500 votes in it this election and i think boris is popular with enough reform voters that he would be able overcome that very small difference. I suppose its's a question of whether people who voted green ( who did very well) would in turn vote labour to keep boris out and i doubt a substantial amount would. I mean voting green in a labour-tory marginal is a way of showing your disaffection with those parties. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 23, 2024 19:30:40 GMT
Tories were clearly below 60% here at the last GE even with the boundary changes, so to claim they will hold on to 50% based on that alone - never mind that most of this seat had a memorable byelection in the interim - is a distinctly brave prediction. Plus just 3% for all of Labour/Green/Reform (never mind minor candidates) is obvious nonsense. Is "brave" now a synonym for "ludicrous" ? Sir Humphrey would call it ‘courageous’! |
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