Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

[stb12]

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

[markgoodair]

Clare Walsh is the Labour Party candidate

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

[matureleft]

The main 5 with a Heritage Party candidate as well.
www.arun.gov.uk/persons-nominated-july-2024

[Deleted]

LAB 39
CON 39
REF 16
LD 5
OTH 1

I've struggled with this one but I think Labour has a lot of potential in Littlehampton. This was a decent UKIP result in 2015, so I might be underestimating Reform. A lot of businesses in Bognor Regis will have struggled during the pandemic and there may be some residual frustration about lockdowns in this part of the world. I'd like to know what jamesdoyle thinks about this constituency. 

[batman]

I have heard that things are going well for Labour here and at present am predicting Lab gain.

[matureleft]

High profile defection here.
www.facebook.com/gmarkwell/

The comments on his announcement are interesting.

[Deleted]

Littlehampton Town was actually pretty close in the 2021 West Sussex elections and the splits between Labour and the Lib Dems in nearly all the wards flatter to deceive for the blue team. My understanding is that this area is a lot more 'normal' than greater Brighton but that in turn could hurt the Tories. 

[jamesdoyle]

Jun 23, 2024 5:26:13 GMT @weld said:

LAB 39
CON 39
REF 16
LD 5
OTH 1

I've struggled with this one but I think Labour has a lot of potential in Littlehampton. This was a decent UKIP result in 2015, so I might be underestimating Reform. A lot of businesses in Bognor Regis will have struggled during the pandemic and there may be some residual frustration about lockdowns in this part of the world. I'd like to know what jamesdoyle thinks about this constituency. 

Very little insight to offer, tbh. What with one thing and another, I've not been to either Bognor or LA (as the young uns call it) for a while now, and i'm out of the loop on their local politics.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 9:40:36 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jun 23, 2024 5:26:13 GMT @weld said:

LAB 39
CON 39
REF 16
LD 5
OTH 1

I've struggled with this one but I think Labour has a lot of potential in Littlehampton. This was a decent UKIP result in 2015, so I might be underestimating Reform. A lot of businesses in Bognor Regis will have struggled during the pandemic and there may be some residual frustration about lockdowns in this part of the world. I'd like to know what jamesdoyle thinks about this constituency. 

Very little insight to offer, tbh. What with one thing and another, I've not been to either Bognor or LA (as the young uns call it) for a while now, and i'm out of the loop on their local politics.

We just need people priced out of Worthing to start buying houses in Littlehampton! I suspect that could happen in this decade as part of the general San Francisco Bay Area-ification of the Sussex Coast. It's a bit speculative, but then buying property always is speculative to a degree. The Humboldt county of the UK?  

[jamesdoyle]

Jun 23, 2024 9:43:27 GMT @weld said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:40:36 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Very little insight to offer, tbh. What with one thing and another, I've not been to either Bognor or LA (as the young uns call it) for a while now, and i'm out of the loop on their local politics.

We just need people priced out of Worthing to start buying houses in Littlehampton! I suspect that could happen in this decade as part of the general San Francisco Bay Area-ification of the Sussex Coast. It's a bit speculative, but then buying property always is speculative to a degree. The Humboldt county of the UK?  

People priced out of worthing have been targeting Littlehampton for a while. It still - last time I went there - feels very tired and shabby, hasn't got that injection of economic vigour yet.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 9:49:54 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:43:27 GMT @weld said:

We just need people priced out of Worthing to start buying houses in Littlehampton! I suspect that could happen in this decade as part of the general San Francisco Bay Area-ification of the Sussex Coast. It's a bit speculative, but then buying property always is speculative to a degree. The Humboldt county of the UK?  

People priced out of worthing have been targeting Littlehampton for a while. It still - last time I went there - feels very tired and shabby, hasn't got that injection of economic vigour yet.

Keep an eye on Littlehampton Town ward next May, It's Labour's best bet after the Crawley, Lancing and the Shoreham wards the party does not currently hold. 
Labour targets West Sussex 2025: Shoreham N; Shoreham S; Lancing; Sompting & N Lancing; Littlehampton Town, Southwick, and Southgate in Crawley. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Littlehampton is a shithole and has always had a large Labour vote

[matureleft]

The rail connections to London are fairly poor compared to Worthing and, particularly, Brighton. The council appears moribund. The coastal holiday offer isn’t great and that certainly affects the retail economy - Bognor is one of the more depressing town centres. There’s a lot that could be done.

[jamesdoyle]

Jun 23, 2024 10:39:55 GMT matureleft said:

The rail connections to London are fairly poor compared to Worthing and, particularly, Brighton. The council appears moribund. The coastal holiday offer isn’t great and that certainly affects the retail economy - Bognor is one of the more depressing town centres. There’s a lot that could be done.

 Arun DC has for years been a byword for council incompetence. I rmember being at a presentation on (I think) planning at an local government conference in the early noughties. The presenter was talking about an example of bad practice, and catalogued everything that had gone wrong over years. He finished up by saying, 'Of course, this was in Arun.' And the entire room of council officers and councillors just erupted in laughter - that is how bad they have been. 

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 10:39:55 GMT matureleft said:

The rail connections to London are fairly poor compared to Worthing and, particularly, Brighton. The council appears moribund. The coastal holiday offer isn’t great and that certainly affects the retail economy - Bognor is one of the more depressing town centres. There’s a lot that could be done.

Two hours so pretty awful, but if you worked in Brighton or Worthing on the other hand...

[Tony Otim]

Jun 23, 2024 10:00:04 GMT @weld said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:49:54 GMT jamesdoyle said:

People priced out of worthing have been targeting Littlehampton for a while. It still - last time I went there - feels very tired and shabby, hasn't got that injection of economic vigour yet.

Keep an eye on Littlehampton Town ward next May, It's Labour's best bet after the Crawley, Lancing and the Shoreham wards the party does not currently hold. 
Labour targets West Sussex 2025: Shoreham N; Shoreham S; Lancing; Sompting & N Lancing; Littlehampton Town, Southwick, and Southgate in Crawley. 

Being pedantic, but you mean division not ward in this case.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 13:57:16 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 23, 2024 10:00:04 GMT @weld said:

Keep an eye on Littlehampton Town ward next May, It's Labour's best bet after the Crawley, Lancing and the Shoreham wards the party does not currently hold. 
Labour targets West Sussex 2025: Shoreham N; Shoreham S; Lancing; Sompting & N Lancing; Littlehampton Town, Southwick, and Southgate in Crawley. 

Being pedantic, but you mean division not ward in this case.

Being pedantic, I mean west Sussex, rather than West Sussex

[Khunanup]

Jun 23, 2024 9:17:50 GMT @weld said:

Littlehampton Town was actually pretty close in the 2021 West Sussex elections and the splits between Labour and the Lib Dems in nearly all the wards flatter to deceive for the blue team. My understanding is that this area is a lot more 'normal' than greater Brighton but that in turn could hurt the Tories. 

BR&L looks a lot more West than East. This is a seat in Portsmouth's orbit, not Brighton's (it gets a bit hazy in the far east of the seat).

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 23, 2024 16:47:22 GMT Khunanup said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:17:50 GMT @weld said:

Littlehampton Town was actually pretty close in the 2021 West Sussex elections and the splits between Labour and the Lib Dems in nearly all the wards flatter to deceive for the blue team. My understanding is that this area is a lot more 'normal' than greater Brighton but that in turn could hurt the Tories. 

BR&L looks a lot more East than West. This is a seat in Portsmouth's orbit, not Brighton's (it gets a bit hazy in the far east of the seat).

Which is it? It looks East or it looks to Portsmouth?