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Banbury
Mar 13, 2024 23:32:03 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:32:03 GMT
Banbury
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 17, 2024 10:22:01 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on May 6, 2024 12:02:06 GMT
I note that Labour outpolled the Conservatives at the local elections, not just in the Cherwell section, but also in the West Oxfordshire section, owing to Liberal Democrat upsurge in the rural half, while Labour polled well in the urban half. Where will these rural voters go in the General Election?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,741
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Post by The Bishop on May 6, 2024 12:21:24 GMT
I think a few well designed Labour bar charts might assist there.
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Post by John Chanin on May 6, 2024 12:45:19 GMT
I think a few well designed Labour bar charts might assist there. This is where 1997 issues come into play. Banbury is not a target seat, so Labour will try and send activists elsewhere. But sending them to Warwick, Worcester, or Milton Keynes is a waste of time as Labour are going to win them anyway. Presumably they will try and send them to Redditch, although it's a long way away. This is a fairly obvious case of fighting a proper local campaign, as there isn't anywhere else close by where it's worth diverting resources. You can make a similar case for Buckingham & Bletchley and Aylesbury, although there are closer target seats in those two cases.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 6, 2024 12:47:51 GMT
I expect there will be a lot of local comment linking tactical votes for Labour in Banbury with tactical votes for Lib Dems in Bicester and Woodstock.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 594
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Post by nyx on May 6, 2024 13:19:09 GMT
I'd be amazed if Labour don't win here. Lib Dems will be focused elsewhere in the county.
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Banbury
May 6, 2024 13:24:54 GMT
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Post by swingometer on May 6, 2024 13:24:54 GMT
I think a few well designed Labour bar charts might assist there. This is where 1997 issues come into play. Banbury is not a target seat, so Labour will try and send activists elsewhere. But sending them to Warwick, Worcester, or Milton Keynes is a waste of time as Labour are going to win them anyway. Presumably they will try and send them to Redditch, although it's a long way away. This is a fairly obvious case of fighting a proper local campaign, as there isn't anywhere else close by where it's worth diverting resources. You can make a similar case for Buckingham & Bletchley and Aylesbury, although there are closer target seats in those two cases. Seats 75-140 on their target lists are where all their efforts should go, if they’re even going to get a majority. Is it worth going for a hung parliament and calling another election soon after or is it too much of a risk?
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Post by batman on May 6, 2024 15:56:34 GMT
I don't think that Labour will be sending activists away from Banbury unless the polls tighten a good deal
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 7, 2024 20:06:01 GMT
At the moment, there is little sign of them sending help to Banbury. There was little sign of activity outwith Banbury and Chipping Norton (the only market towns, according to their candidate).
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Post by swingometer on May 9, 2024 0:57:11 GMT
Looks like Victoria Prentis is gonna get buried in Banbury
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Banbury
May 9, 2024 8:09:28 GMT
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 9, 2024 8:09:28 GMT
Looks like Victoria Prentis is gonna get buried in Banbury With Labour polling less than 30% in local elections here and likely to be out of the picture on Cherwell Council, it’s far from certain. Prentis seems to be regarded with indifference - a relative positive for a Tory MP in Oxfordshire these days.
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