Banbury

[stb12]

Banbury

[John Chanin]

Link to profile

[John Chanin]

I note that Labour outpolled the Conservatives at the local elections, not just in the Cherwell section, but also in the West Oxfordshire section, owing to Liberal Democrat upsurge in the rural half, while Labour polled well in the urban half. Where will these rural voters go in the General Election?

[The Bishop]

I think a few well designed Labour bar charts might assist there.

[John Chanin]

May 6, 2024 12:21:24 GMT The Bishop said:

I think a few well designed Labour bar charts might assist there.

This is where 1997 issues come into play.  Banbury is not a target seat, so Labour will try and send activists elsewhere.  But sending them to Warwick, Worcester, or Milton Keynes is a waste of time as Labour are going to win them anyway. Presumably they will try and send them to Redditch, although it's a long way away.  This is a fairly obvious case of fighting a proper local campaign, as there isn't anywhere else close by where it's worth diverting resources.  You can make a similar case for Buckingham & Bletchley and Aylesbury, although there are closer target seats in those two cases.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I expect there will be a lot of local comment linking tactical votes for Labour in Banbury with tactical votes for Lib Dems in Bicester and Woodstock.

[nyx]

I'd be amazed if Labour don't win here. Lib Dems will be focused elsewhere in the county.

[swingometer]

May 6, 2024 12:45:19 GMT John Chanin said:

May 6, 2024 12:21:24 GMT The Bishop said:

I think a few well designed Labour bar charts might assist there.

This is where 1997 issues come into play.  Banbury is not a target seat, so Labour will try and send activists elsewhere.  But sending them to Warwick, Worcester, or Milton Keynes is a waste of time as Labour are going to win them anyway. Presumably they will try and send them to Redditch, although it's a long way away.  This is a fairly obvious case of fighting a proper local campaign, as there isn't anywhere else close by where it's worth diverting resources.  You can make a similar case for Buckingham & Bletchley and Aylesbury, although there are closer target seats in those two cases.

Seats 75-140 on their target lists are where all their efforts should go, if they’re even going to get a majority. Is it worth going for a hung parliament and calling another election soon after or is it too much of a risk?

[batman]

I don't think that Labour will be sending activists away from Banbury unless the polls tighten a good deal

[sonofkrautrock]

At the moment, there is little sign of them sending help to Banbury. There was little sign of activity outwith Banbury and Chipping Norton (the only market towns, according to their candidate).

[swingometer]

Looks like Victoria Prentis is gonna get buried in Banbury

[sonofkrautrock]

May 9, 2024 0:57:11 GMT swingometer said:

Looks like Victoria Prentis is gonna get buried in Banbury

With Labour polling less than 30% in local elections here and likely to be out of the picture on Cherwell Council, it’s far from certain.

Prentis seems to be regarded with indifference - a relative positive for a Tory MP in Oxfordshire these days.

[carolus]

www.cherwell.gov.uk/info/11/elections/1152/general-election-2024/2

8 - Con, Green, Lab, LD, Reform UK, Climate Party, SDP, Ind

[cogload]

I think this is in Banbury?

Anyway what are the odds of a single Tory MP left on Friday in Oxfordshire?

[heslingtonian]

Jul 1, 2024 15:49:45 GMT cogload said:

I think this is in Banbury?

Anyway what are the odds of a single Tory MP left on Friday in Oxfordshire?

It's very possible there could be no Conservative MPs left in Oxfordshire on Friday. Witney is probably the most likely Conservative hold but even that is far from secure.

[sonofkrautrock]

The farm used to have a CND sign painted on the roof: it was on the flight path for USAF Upper Heyford.

[Deleted]

Jul 1, 2024 19:07:46 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 1, 2024 15:49:45 GMT cogload said:

I think this is in Banbury?

Anyway what are the odds of a single Tory MP left on Friday in Oxfordshire?

It's very possible there could be no Conservative MPs left in Oxfordshire on Friday. Witney is probably the most likely Conservative hold but even that is far from secure.

I would be surprised if they lost Henley or Witney and a hold in Didcot & Wantage is not out of the question either 

[Ports]

On the contrary I was under the impression that Henley was the most likely loss due the more binary nature of the election there, whereas Bicester and Didcot they might benefit from split opposition, and until Sunak's visit today nobody seems to have thought Witney was a likely loss.

[flagman]

Odds Henley Lib Dems 2/7 Conservative 5/2 - Witney Conservatives 4/6 Lib dems 11/10 -Bicester Lib Dems 4/7 Conservatives 11/4 Labour 3/1 

[sonofkrautrock]

The Labour candidate is an absolute tool but is likely to win.