Aylesbury

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 23, 2024 9:09:26 GMT Clark said:

So Ben Walker on his Youtube Live broadcast last night still has Aylesbury going to the Lib Dems but with only 7% between the 4 main parties. Clearly this is seat is quite unpredictable but the Lib Dems are still 50/1 on Bet365 so I've stuck a fiver on them winning.

Do you have a link to this broadcast?

[Clark]

Jun 23, 2024 9:13:34 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:09:26 GMT Clark said:

So Ben Walker on his Youtube Live broadcast last night still has Aylesbury going to the Lib Dems but with only 7% between the 4 main parties. Clearly this is seat is quite unpredictable but the Lib Dems are still 50/1 on Bet365 so I've stuck a fiver on them winning.

Do you have a link to this broadcast?

Sure - he we go Pete - 

[Deleted]

I would still be slightly surprised if Labour won this - it's Buckinghamshire after all, but Aylesbury feels like a pretty generic place that could be anywhere. It is architecturally indistiguisable from Bedford, Wellingborough etc. However, you still have a lot of affluent London commuters here who might be more receptive to the LDs than Labour. 

[YL]

I think the Tories will lose this and I think it will go Labour, who were ahead of the Lib Dems on the 2019 notional figures. The Britain Predicts forecast of a Lib Dem gain seems to come from council strength, which is undeniable but I think this could be one of the cases where it turns out not to be very relevant.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 9:30:47 GMT YL said:

I think the Tories will lose this and I think it will go Labour, who were ahead of the Lib Dems on the 2019 notional figures. The Britain Predicts forecast of a Lib Dem gain seems to come from council strength, which is undeniable but I think this could be one of the cases where it turns out not to be very relevant.

Fair enough, and Aylesbury town is pretty diverse really, which helps Labour. They just need a bigger Bucks New University campus here...

[jamie]

Jun 23, 2024 9:30:47 GMT YL said:

I think the Tories will lose this and I think it will go Labour, who were ahead of the Lib Dems on the 2019 notional figures. The Britain Predicts forecast of a Lib Dem gain seems to come from council strength, which is undeniable but I think this could be one of the cases where it turns out not to be very relevant.

The Lib Dems had the same council strength in 2021 as they did in 2017 with no elections since, so it seems hard to argue it’s suddenly going to lead to a strong campaign and massive tactical voting in their favour. Certainly, I see no reason for the Labour vote to go down 3% when the same model has it up 10% nationally. 

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 9:35:17 GMT jamie said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:30:47 GMT YL said:

I think the Tories will lose this and I think it will go Labour, who were ahead of the Lib Dems on the 2019 notional figures. The Britain Predicts forecast of a Lib Dem gain seems to come from council strength, which is undeniable but I think this could be one of the cases where it turns out not to be very relevant.

The Lib Dems had the same council strength in 2021 as they did in 2017 with no elections since, so it seems hard to argue it’s suddenly going to lead to a strong campaign and massive tactical voting in their favour. Certainly, I see no reason for the Labour vote to go down 3% when the same model has it up 10% nationally. 

Maybe not here, and of course here is what this thread is about, but there will surely be some tactical voting which results in Labour's vote declining. I think Wimbledon is one such seat, especially based on what Wimbledon looks like after boundary changes. I also think Sutton & Cheam will have tactical voting. 

[finsobruce]

Jun 23, 2024 9:38:05 GMT @weld said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:35:17 GMT jamie said:

The Lib Dems had the same council strength in 2021 as they did in 2017 with no elections since, so it seems hard to argue it’s suddenly going to lead to a strong campaign and massive tactical voting in their favour. Certainly, I see no reason for the Labour vote to go down 3% when the same model has it up 10% nationally. 

Maybe not here, and of course here is what this thread is about, but there will surely be some tactical voting which results in Labour's vote declining. I think Wimbledon is one such seat, especially based on what Wimbledon looks like after boundary changes. I also think Sutton & Cheam will have tactical voting. 

Or tactical voting which results in Labour's vote increasing.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 9:40:24 GMT finsobruce said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:38:05 GMT @weld said:

Maybe not here, and of course here is what this thread is about, but there will surely be some tactical voting which results in Labour's vote declining. I think Wimbledon is one such seat, especially based on what Wimbledon looks like after boundary changes. I also think Sutton & Cheam will have tactical voting. 

Or tactical voting which results in Labour's vote increasing.

Of course. I'm just saying it'll go in both directions as it did in 1997. 

[jamesdoyle]

It's interestingly balanced, isn't it. Purely on the numbers, if you ignore the LibDems it would be around 200th on the Labour list, and if you ignore Labour, it would be around 60th for the LibDems. So prior to the campaign, probably not on the radar for either, but now, either or both could see this as a stretch target. Othrs obviously know more about local demographics and political history, but it does feel like one that will fall through the cracks.

[John Chanin]

My own view, hinted at in the profile, is that Labour is clearly the challenger here, and this is another constituency where the notionals showing a drop in Labour support are nonsense.

[borisminor]

I think this is a Conservative hold. I do not think Lab will be targeting here excessively, they have listed it as one of their non target seats. The LibDems have more appealing targets near here. I think it could be one of those seats which will get lost by opposition campaigns allowing Butler to hold on.

[BucksDucks]

Labour gain by 630 votes. Laura Kyrke-Smith becomes the first non-Conservative MP for Aylesbury since Thomas Keens a century ago.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001071

Laura Kyrke-Smith	Lab	15,081	30.2%	+7.3%
Rob Butler	Con	14,451	28.9%	-22.8%
Steven Lambert	LD	10,440	20.9%	-1.0%
Lesley Taylor	Ref	6,746	13.5%	+13.0%
Julie Atkins	Grn	2,590	5.2%	+2.3%
Jan Gajdos	WPB	516	1.0%	+1.0%
Richard Wilding	SDP	116	0.2%	+0.2%

[heslingtonian]

Another good example of a toxic Truss Tory candidate. Even in the context of these elections the Conservatives polling under 29% in a seat like this is pathetic.