stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379 
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Aylesbury
Mar 13, 2024 23:31:26 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:31:26 GMT
Aylesbury
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 17, 2024 10:22:49 GMT
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Post by BucksDucks on Apr 26, 2024 11:07:53 GMT
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 27, 2024 17:26:01 GMT
Lib Dems are 50/1 to win here with Bet365!
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Post by matureleft on May 27, 2024 17:36:26 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,907
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Post by YL on May 27, 2024 17:52:36 GMT
I think that if the Tories did lose this seat it would probably be Labour who took it, in spite of the Lib Dems' local government strength in Aylesbury town.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2024 18:10:40 GMT
The odds on Chichester look...ummm...(gets wallet out). |
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Post by matureleft on May 27, 2024 18:24:14 GMT
The odds on Chichester look...ummm...(gets wallet out). Indeed… |
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 27, 2024 19:35:32 GMT
Hazel Grove would be worth a few quid on the LDs…
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Aylesbury
May 28, 2024 15:48:14 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on May 28, 2024 15:48:14 GMT
I think that if the Tories did lose this seat it would probably be Labour who took it, in spite of the Lib Dems' local government strength in Aylesbury town. I'm very confused as this is my home seat and I'm not clear on who is best placed to challenge the Conservatives here. I've not seen any election activity yet. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 16:05:51 GMT
I know that there have been boundary changes, but Labour were quite some way ahead of Lib Dems in 2019, and I don't think there will be many seats (it seems plausible that there could even be none?) where the Lib Dems overtake Labour.
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Post by batman on May 28, 2024 17:18:38 GMT
I think that if the Tories did lose this seat it would probably be Labour who took it, in spite of the Lib Dems' local government strength in Aylesbury town. I'm very confused as this is my home seat and I'm not clear on who is best placed to challenge the Conservatives here. I've not seen any election activity yet. on paper it's definitely Labour. The Lib Dems have quite a bit of support in local elections but a lot of it has not transferred to parliamentary ones in the last couple of elections. It's certainly a seat on Labour's radar. Can't speak for the Lib Dems on that |
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Post by batman on May 28, 2024 17:19:25 GMT
I know that there have been boundary changes, but Labour were quite some way ahead of Lib Dems in 2019, and I don't think there will be many seats (it seems plausible that there could even be none?) where the Lib Dems overtake Labour. Sheffield Hallam is their best bet but I don't fancy them to do it here |
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Aylesbury
May 28, 2024 17:23:15 GMT
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Post by mrsir on May 28, 2024 17:23:15 GMT
A decent amount of Labour support coming from the Muslim vote here may confuse matters if an independent/Workers candidate stands.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,543
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Post by johnloony on May 28, 2024 17:30:16 GMT
I think that if the Tories did lose this seat it would probably be Labour who took it, in spite of the Lib Dems' local government strength in Aylesbury town. I'm very confused as this is my home seat and I'm not clear on who is best placed to challenge the Conservatives here. I've not seen any election activity yet. The notional 2019 result on the new boundaries is Lab 23% LD 22%. |
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Post by greenhert on May 30, 2024 20:48:25 GMT
Even taking this into account Labour needs a 14.5% swing according to Rallings & Thrasher's notionals. Even in the current circumstances and the seat shrinking as a result of boundary changes this is a tall order.
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Post by batman on May 30, 2024 21:51:53 GMT
a 14.5% swing is equivalent on UNS to a Labour lead nationally of 17.5%. That is quite a bit less than the current average, and one would certainly expect the swing to be bigger in Tory seats, especially outside London & Scotland. It's a tall order, but not so tall it's above the clouds as it were.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Aylesbury
May 31, 2024 11:53:43 GMT
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Post by ricmk on May 31, 2024 11:53:43 GMT
On paper it‘s Labour, just, as the challengers. In practice it’s surrounded by better Lib Dem prospects so won’t get much attention.
Unlikely either Lab or LD vote can be squeezed enough here and Rob Butler seems to have a good network - I‘d make him favourite to hang on.
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Post by BucksDucks on Jun 7, 2024 16:31:23 GMT
7 candidates - Con, Grn, Lab, LD, Ref, Workers, SDP
Candidates listed in the third post in this thread.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jun 23, 2024 9:09:26 GMT
So Ben Walker on his Youtube Live broadcast last night still has Aylesbury going to the Lib Dems but with only 7% between the 4 main parties. Clearly this is seat is quite unpredictable but the Lib Dems are still 50/1 on Bet365 so I've stuck a fiver on them winning.
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