Aldershot

[right]

Here's a leaflet from Anna Soubry saying vote Labour

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/full/96347/

[Pete Whitehead]

I mean obviously it didn;t specifically harm them in this seat, but is Anna Soubry really reckoned to appeal to any significant block of voters? I can't imagine who. Maybe drunken old harridans like her..

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The average voter probably doesn't have any particular view on Anna Soubry, but does appreciate what it means to have someone who was a Conservative MP now endorsing Labour.

We had Nick Boles endorsing Labour on our leaflets in Cities of London and Westminster.

[John Chanin]

Jul 17, 2024 8:47:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I mean obviously it didn;t specifically harm them in this seat, but is Anna Soubry really reckoned to appeal to any significant block of voters? I can't imagine who. Maybe drunken old harridans like her..

Unusually you are missing the point.  Any former MP of a different party endorsing you provides a psychological security if you are thinking of changing your vote.  High profile MPs may actually be less effective here, as if you know and dislike them, their endorsement will be negative rather than positive.

There is surely little doubt that Ian Austin's endorsement of the Conservatives in2019 contributed to the large swings in the Black Country. 

[mrsir]

I was surprised that the majority here was only a few hundred below that of Basingstoke or the two Southampton constituencies.

[batman]

thanks, I hadn't clocked how easy a win this was for us. The swing to Labour was a cool 23.2% with the party obtaining a fraction over 40% of the vote. The first-ever win for Labour in Aldershot, but unlikely to be the last. Farnborough is unlucky not to get a mention in the constituency title as it is larger than Aldershot and Labour must have been well ahead of the Tories in that town too.

[jakegb]

Prior to last year's locals, the Tories had been given an easy ride here for years.
They were helped in the 90s and 00s with a more divided opposition, with the Libs being the principal challengers.
The military influence has declined significantly in that time too. Aldershot has long been ethnically diverse, but that diversity is now evident in Farnborough also: this will have helped Labour this time around. The same can also be said for Basingstoke.

[mrsir]

Aug 2, 2024 9:26:19 GMT jakegb said:

Prior to last year's locals, the Tories had been given an easy ride here for years.
They were helped in the 90s and 00s with a more divided opposition, with the Libs being the principal challengers.
The military influence has declined significantly in that time too. Aldershot has long been ethnically diverse, but that diversity is now evident in Farnborough also: this will have helped Labour this time around. The same can also be said for Basingstoke.

I had assumed the demographic change might not be beneficial to Labour here, isn’t it mainly Hindus and Buddhists?

Either way it is interesting looking at this result and then comparing it to nearby by less impressive gains.

[sanders]

Alder right votes - not necessarily in the right order.

[batman]

I wonder how Labour would have done in 1945 had they stood here.

[sanders]

I don't think voters here were quite ready to get shot of the Tories in 1945.

[batman]

Nevertheless the forces vote was generally good for Labour that year, better than at any other time in history.

[finsobruce]

Aug 2, 2024 21:10:31 GMT batman said:

Nevertheless the forces vote was generally good for Labour that year, better than at any other time in history.

Were soldiers generally registered at their last base or at their old home address?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

On the 1945 electoral register, the Aldershot division had 5,136 on the Service Register and 43,843 on the Civilian Residence Register - the Service Register was not significantly higher as a proportion than in other constituencies. The main problem was lack of Labour organisation: in the 1945 Labour Party Conference Report, Aldershot Divisional Labour Party didn't submit any membership numbers, and it didn't send a delegate to the conference. In 1944 Aldershot Divisional Labour Party had only 120 members and was in arrears.