Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 598
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Post by Ports on Jun 29, 2024 18:53:12 GMT
stb12 I know you've been asked a lot, often unnecessarily so, but since Keir Starmer was here today saying this seat could be within a few hundred votes, could we take his advice and get a poll? (And possibly in Basingstoke as well - both straight Con Hold/Lab Gain) 😎
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Post by batman on Jun 29, 2024 20:20:57 GMT
Basingstoke is a little easier than this one but would still be reasonable enough in terms of having a poll. (Although it would still be the first time Labour has won Basingstoke, if so - though Labour would have won the seat in at least 2001 if they had been able to contest it on the boundaries which came into force in 2010.)
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Aldershot
Jul 17, 2024 8:38:21 GMT
via mobile
Post by right on Jul 17, 2024 8:38:21 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 8:47:47 GMT
I mean obviously it didn;t specifically harm them in this seat, but is Anna Soubry really reckoned to appeal to any significant block of voters? I can't imagine who. Maybe drunken old harridans like her..
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2024 8:58:07 GMT
The average voter probably doesn't have any particular view on Anna Soubry, but does appreciate what it means to have someone who was a Conservative MP now endorsing Labour.
We had Nick Boles endorsing Labour on our leaflets in Cities of London and Westminster.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 17, 2024 10:51:48 GMT
I mean obviously it didn;t specifically harm them in this seat, but is Anna Soubry really reckoned to appeal to any significant block of voters? I can't imagine who. Maybe drunken old harridans like her.. Unusually you are missing the point. Any former MP of a different party endorsing you provides a psychological security if you are thinking of changing your vote. High profile MPs may actually be less effective here, as if you know and dislike them, their endorsement will be negative rather than positive. There is surely little doubt that Ian Austin's endorsement of the Conservatives in2019 contributed to the large swings in the Black Country.
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Post by mrsir on Aug 2, 2024 8:19:50 GMT
I was surprised that the majority here was only a few hundred below that of Basingstoke or the two Southampton constituencies.
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Post by batman on Aug 2, 2024 9:10:05 GMT
thanks, I hadn't clocked how easy a win this was for us. The swing to Labour was a cool 23.2% with the party obtaining a fraction over 40% of the vote. The first-ever win for Labour in Aldershot, but unlikely to be the last. Farnborough is unlucky not to get a mention in the constituency title as it is larger than Aldershot and Labour must have been well ahead of the Tories in that town too.
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Post by jakegb on Aug 2, 2024 9:26:19 GMT
Prior to last year's locals, the Tories had been given an easy ride here for years. They were helped in the 90s and 00s with a more divided opposition, with the Libs being the principal challengers. The military influence has declined significantly in that time too. Aldershot has long been ethnically diverse, but that diversity is now evident in Farnborough also: this will have helped Labour this time around. The same can also be said for Basingstoke.
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Aldershot
Aug 2, 2024 11:18:46 GMT
via mobile
Post by mrsir on Aug 2, 2024 11:18:46 GMT
Prior to last year's locals, the Tories had been given an easy ride here for years. They were helped in the 90s and 00s with a more divided opposition, with the Libs being the principal challengers. The military influence has declined significantly in that time too. Aldershot has long been ethnically diverse, but that diversity is now evident in Farnborough also: this will have helped Labour this time around. The same can also be said for Basingstoke. I had assumed the demographic change might not be beneficial to Labour here, isn’t it mainly Hindus and Buddhists? Either way it is interesting looking at this result and then comparing it to nearby by less impressive gains.
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Post by sanders on Aug 2, 2024 11:26:18 GMT
Alder right votes - not necessarily in the right order.
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Post by batman on Aug 2, 2024 11:35:42 GMT
I wonder how Labour would have done in 1945 had they stood here.
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Post by sanders on Aug 2, 2024 12:08:03 GMT
I don't think voters here were quite ready to get shot of the Tories in 1945.
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Aldershot
Aug 2, 2024 21:10:31 GMT
via mobile
Post by batman on Aug 2, 2024 21:10:31 GMT
Nevertheless the forces vote was generally good for Labour that year, better than at any other time in history.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 2, 2024 21:23:07 GMT
Nevertheless the forces vote was generally good for Labour that year, better than at any other time in history. Were soldiers generally registered at their last base or at their old home address?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 2, 2024 21:24:37 GMT
On the 1945 electoral register, the Aldershot division had 5,136 on the Service Register and 43,843 on the Civilian Residence Register - the Service Register was not significantly higher as a proportion than in other constituencies. The main problem was lack of Labour organisation: in the 1945 Labour Party Conference Report, Aldershot Divisional Labour Party didn't submit any membership numbers, and it didn't send a delegate to the conference. In 1944 Aldershot Divisional Labour Party had only 120 members and was in arrears.
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