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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 1, 2024 21:03:17 GMT
I suspect the remnants of the Conservative vote which has hitherto remained impervious to Farron's charms will be quite sticky. No worries for Tim though this time. I think something like a 10k majority.
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binky
Non-Aligned
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Post by binky on Jul 5, 2024 13:15:10 GMT
Extraordinary majority for Farron here.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 14:33:52 GMT
Indeed, his nearly losing in 2017 looks even more incredible now.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 5, 2024 17:31:05 GMT
This is the only seat to record a lost deposit for Labour this year.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 5, 2024 20:11:54 GMT
Indeed, his nearly losing in 2017 looks even more incredible now. No it doesn't unless one subscribes to a steady state theory of politics as in 50-60s? In the present febrile times with lack of tribalism he could be scrabbling about for survival in just 4-years. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 6, 2024 9:46:55 GMT
Indeed, his nearly losing in 2017 looks even more incredible now. No it doesn't unless one subscribes to a steady state theory of politics as in 50-60s? In the present febrile times with lack of tribalism he could be scrabbling about for survival in just 4-years. Of course I know this, but the closeness of the 2017 result came as a surprise to all - including the Tories, who had only worked it half-heartedly after not getting close even in the great Orange Massacre of 2015. They did take it seriously in 2019, but by then Farron was no longer distracted by leadership duties and saw them off. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Jul 6, 2024 9:59:05 GMT
Farron probably knows the name of every single constituent. Biggest % majority in the UK at over 40%.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 6, 2024 13:40:38 GMT
Farron probably knows the name of every single constituent. Biggest % majority in the UK at over 40%. Is that the largest personal vote for someone too? I haven't seen every result but browsing the map so far nobody seems to have come close to 30,000. It's amazing how many winning results (particularly for Labour, or Tories hanging on) are between 10-15,000, but I notice the LD's wins tend to have bigger votes (Chichester was seriously impressive considering Keegan's majority). |
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Post by noorderling on Jul 6, 2024 14:21:13 GMT
Farron probably knows the name of every single constituent. Biggest % majority in the UK at over 40%. Is that the largest personal vote for someone too? I haven't seen every result but browsing the map so far nobody seems to have come close to 30,000. It's amazing how many winning results (particularly for Labour, or Tories hanging on) are between 10-15,000, but I notice the LD's wins tend to have bigger votes (Chichester was seriously impressive considering Keegan's majority). |
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Post by johnhemming on Jul 6, 2024 14:26:38 GMT
I was impressed by how well this went. Tim is an effective campaigner. The new seat, however, took in a lot of territory.
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Post by peterski on Jul 6, 2024 20:19:26 GMT
I posit the theory that Liberal Democrat victors in general have won seats where Reform UK, Greens and Labour are weak so more anti-Tory votes have been in play.Whether it is tactical voting or just a matter of pure demographics this gives a higher ceiling to their vote percentages.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 7:14:52 GMT
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2024 8:37:35 GMT
Farron probably knows the name of every single constituent. Biggest % majority in the UK at over 40%. Is that the largest personal vote for someone too? I haven't seen every result but browsing the map so far nobody seems to have come close to 30,000. It's amazing how many winning results (particularly for Labour, or Tories hanging on) are between 10-15,000, but I notice the LD's wins tend to have bigger votes (Chichester was seriously impressive considering Keegan's majority). The nearest competitor I've noticed is Munira Wilson at Twickenham. She received 30,185 votes compared with Farron's 31,061. Their majorities were virtually identical with Wilson 21,457 and Farron 21,472. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 12, 2024 12:06:13 GMT
I posit the theory that Liberal Democrat victors in general have won seats where Reform UK, Greens and Labour are weak so more anti-Tory votes have been in play.Whether it is tactical voting or just a matter of pure demographics this gives a higher ceiling to their vote percentages. In terms of the Greens - there's a clear pattern where most of our worst results were in seats that there were Lib Dem gains (our vote actually held up a bit better in seats that were already LD held), but in a lot of these cases it isn't so much that they are naturally weak areas, some of them like Lewes or Horsham have real Green strength at local level, but that vote was very effectively squeezed. I think you could certainly argue for something of the reverse happening in North Herefordshire at least. But in a lot of Lib Dem targets we underperformed. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 12, 2024 20:14:23 GMT
I posit the theory that Liberal Democrat victors in general have won seats where Reform UK, Greens and Labour are weak so more anti-Tory votes have been in play.Whether it is tactical voting or just a matter of pure demographics this gives a higher ceiling to their vote percentages. In terms of the Greens - there's a clear pattern where most of our worst results were in seats that there were Lib Dem gains (our vote actually held up a bit better in seats that were already LD held), but in a lot of these cases it isn't so much that they are naturally weak areas, some of them like Lewes or Horsham have real Green strength at local level, but that vote was very effectively squeezed. I think you could certainly argue for something of the reverse happening in North Herefordshire at least. But in a lot of Lib Dem targets we underperformed. The Green strength in Horsham district is entirely in Arundel & South Downs constituency. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 12, 2024 21:33:46 GMT
In terms of the Greens - there's a clear pattern where most of our worst results were in seats that there were Lib Dem gains (our vote actually held up a bit better in seats that were already LD held), but in a lot of these cases it isn't so much that they are naturally weak areas, some of them like Lewes or Horsham have real Green strength at local level, but that vote was very effectively squeezed. I think you could certainly argue for something of the reverse happening in North Herefordshire at least. But in a lot of Lib Dem targets we underperformed. The Green strength in Horsham district is entirely in Arundel & South Downs constituency. That's a fair point and a poorly chosen example on my part, but doesn't negate the overall point. |
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