stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 22:53:14 GMT
Macclesfield
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Jun 8, 2024 12:36:00 GMT
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Post by Dave Morgan on Jun 9, 2024 15:19:35 GMT
Drove up to Macclesfield Forest for a walk with my son and Dad yesterday. Driving through Langley, a tiny village to the east of Macclesfield town, towards the Peak District, staggered how many Labour posters were up (no Tory ones).
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Post by greenhert on Jun 10, 2024 7:23:05 GMT
Drove up to Macclesfield Forest for a walk with my son and Dad yesterday. Driving through Langley, a tiny village to the east of Macclesfield town, towards the Peak District, staggered how many Labour posters were up (no Tory ones). This will definitely be a historic Labour gain and the seat has been trending Labour for quite some time. |
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Post by where2travel on Jun 10, 2024 9:46:49 GMT
Drove up to Macclesfield Forest for a walk with my son and Dad yesterday. Driving through Langley, a tiny village to the east of Macclesfield town, towards the Peak District, staggered how many Labour posters were up (no Tory ones). This will definitely be a historic Labour gain and the seat has been trending Labour for quite some time. I agree, especially with the way things are currently looking. I'd previously thought this seat may not swing anywhere near as much as the national swing with it being quite polarised - Labour solid in Macclesfield and the Tories in most of the outer areas, and that Tory vote possibly being quite sticky to get into the Labour column so easily. I still think the swing may be dampened, and I don't get the impressions Rutley will carry much personal vote or loyalty, so overall enough to finally turn this corner of Cheshire red. The one factor I've not considered or got a handle on is the relative unpopularity of Cheshire East Council and whether this may play any part. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 6, 2024 19:57:35 GMT
I expected a Labour gain here. I did not expect a Labour majority of over 9k. Remarkable result when you consider this seat's history.
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Post by peterski on Jul 6, 2024 20:24:12 GMT
Long gone are the days when Nick and Ann Winterton could sail through the 1997 landslide in Macclesfield and Congleton. Counterintuitively in these instances more commuters and less local industry seems to work in Labour's favour.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 6, 2024 20:26:52 GMT
Macclesfield is increasingly an utter shithole, no surprise to see it with a Labour MP
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 6, 2024 20:44:29 GMT
I'll point to Poynton. Lots of new 3-bed houses sold to Didsbury/Heatons escapees. Great profile to take votes for Labour.
Repeat a few times across the seat.
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2024 22:17:02 GMT
Macclesfield is increasingly an utter shithole, no surprise to see it with a Labour MP Macclesfield itself was always at least competitive for Labour. The problem was always that the rest of the constituency was much too Conservative. It seems clear that Labour has strengthened in Macclesfield town, which is now almost safe Labour, but has also greatly improved its situation in some other parts of the constituency too. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 6, 2024 23:07:58 GMT
I went for selection in Macclesfield in 1976. I was nominated by Poynton, by far the biggest branch for Labour in the constituency. I arrived at the selection meeting and the Poynton delegates were there in force. Unfortunately those from Macclesfield town were not and the meeting was declared inquorate.
There was a second attempt a few weeks later in mid-July, by which time the Macclesfield members showed up. Unfortunately most of the Poynton delegates were by then on holiday and I lost the selection.
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Post by ccoleman on Jul 7, 2024 20:10:40 GMT
Macclesfield is increasingly an utter shithole, no surprise to see it with a Labour MP This kind of seat has swung so strongly towards Labour precisely because it’s full of middle class professionals who work in Manchester. That demographic is probably more favourable for Labour than the Tories now - hence the party storming to victory in nearby Altrincham & Sale West as well (plus some similar seats in other parts of the country i.e Rushcliffe, Hertford & Stortford, Hexham, York Outer, North East Somerset etc). If anything, I would expect Labour’s longer-term prospects to be better in these prosperous commuter seats than in their more traditional working class seats. The fact that this constituency has a larger Labour majority than somewhere like Bassetlaw (a historically safe Labour seat with high levels of social & economic deprivation) says a lot about the current voting patterns. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 7, 2024 20:49:55 GMT
I expected a Labour gain here. I did not expect a Labour majority of over 9k. Remarkable result when you consider this seat's history. I’ve not seen every result but this seems to be a relatively rare seat certainly in the north where there was a very respectable rise in the labour vote and so evidence of direct Con-Lab switching rather than just a static Labour vote sneaking through a wholesale Conservative decline (to Reform/stay at home). Just as Alty & SW contains Bowdon, this is remarkable in that it contains Prestbury, both now represented by a Labour MP. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 4:14:00 GMT
Macclesfield is increasingly an utter shithole, no surprise to see it with a Labour MP This kind of seat has swung so strongly towards Labour precisely because it’s full of middle class professionals who work in Manchester. That demographic is probably more favourable for Labour than the Tories now - hence the party storming to victory in nearby Altrincham & Sale West as well (plus some similar seats in other parts of the country i.e Rushcliffe, Hertford & Stortford, Hexham, York Outer, North East Somerset etc). Keynsham & Hanham is not just in Somerset, and in its former guise of Wansdyke it was previously held by Labour (and indeed by current MP Dan Norris) from 1997 to 2010 and as such is nothing like the other seats on your list. |
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Post by ccoleman on Jul 8, 2024 6:43:37 GMT
This kind of seat has swung so strongly towards Labour precisely because it’s full of middle class professionals who work in Manchester. That demographic is probably more favourable for Labour than the Tories now - hence the party storming to victory in nearby Altrincham & Sale West as well (plus some similar seats in other parts of the country i.e Rushcliffe, Hertford & Stortford, Hexham, York Outer, North East Somerset etc). Keynsham & Hanham is not just in Somerset, and in its former guise of Wansdyke it was previously held by Labour (and indeed by current MP Dan Norris) from 1997 to 2010 and as such is nothing like the other seats on your list. Fair enough. |
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Post by where2travel on Jul 8, 2024 11:41:16 GMT
Long gone are the days when Nick and Ann Winterton could sail through the 1997 landslide in Macclesfield and Congleton. Counterintuitively in these instances more commuters and less local industry seems to work in Labour's favour. Indeed, and I was wrong that the Tory vote may still be quite 'sticky' here, a 23% drop suggests not and as also noted, what looks like a reasonable amount of direct Tory->Labour switchers. Overall a 19% swing. In 1997 Winterton secured a 9K majority, this time Roca won with a 9K majority for Labour. Labour looked to have a visible and strong campaign here and were certainly a lot more active in places like Poynton where they never seemed to have bothered much, if at all, before. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 8, 2024 15:37:46 GMT
Long gone are the days when Nick and Ann Winterton could sail through the 1997 landslide in Macclesfield and Congleton. Counterintuitively in these instances more commuters and less local industry seems to work in Labour's favour. Indeed, and I was wrong that the Tory vote may still be quite 'sticky' here, a 23% drop suggests not and as also noted, what looks like a reasonable amount of direct Tory->Labour switchers. Overall a 19% swing. In 1997 Winterton secured a 9K majority, this time Roca won with a 9K majority for Labour. Labour looked to have a visible and strong campaign here and were certainly a lot more active in places like Poynton where they never seemed to have bothered much, if at all, before. Back in the 1970s, Poynton had a large and active Labour branch. They even won substantial representation on the Parish Council. This was admittedly because the Conservatives cocked-up their nominations in one of the three wards. |
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Post by Dave Morgan on Jul 11, 2024 10:34:26 GMT
Long gone are the days when Nick and Ann Winterton could sail through the 1997 landslide in Macclesfield and Congleton. Counterintuitively in these instances more commuters and less local industry seems to work in Labour's favour. Indeed, and I was wrong that the Tory vote may still be quite 'sticky' here, a 23% drop suggests not and as also noted, what looks like a reasonable amount of direct Tory->Labour switchers. Overall a 19% swing. In 1997 Winterton secured a 9K majority, this time Roca won with a 9K majority for Labour. Labour looked to have a visible and strong campaign here and were certainly a lot more active in places like Poynton where they never seemed to have bothered much, if at all, before. I’d argue rather than a “sticky” seat which it may have been in 1997, this is probably more like seats in Hertfordshire like Hemel Hempstead or North Kent, and a high swing seat. Full of young families without particularly set views but when faced with a relatively impressive and active candidate in Labour switched quickly to him. Plus, new Housing Estates are a place the tories have to win back to ever have a chance of winning again at a GE. |
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