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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 28, 2024 17:13:22 GMT
I will simply make the observation that Northwich and Hartford are very different to Audlem or Farndon or Bunbury. Obviously, no one would go bunburying in Northwich. Why would one question the burying of buns? Unless you are in Wybunbury? Which transfers to this constituency. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 28, 2024 22:35:55 GMT
Obviously, no one would go bunburying in Northwich. Why would one question the burying of buns? Unless you are in Wybunbury? Which transfers to this constituency. Bunnies WILL go to France Bunny Lake is Missing Why? |
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Post by trickyreturns on Jun 30, 2024 22:48:32 GMT
It's a Con v Lab contest. A poll might be of interest. I think Labour are very slight bookies' favourites to win the seat (at present unless I am very much mistaken Labour is favoured to win all Cheshire seats by the bookies) I don’t know the proportions in terms of electorate but in normal times I get the impression this would be a 50:50 battle between the Chester South part being the Labour stronghold (certainly since 2017 given the poor Conservative performance in Chester in in 2019) and the other 50% being the uniformly conservative rural areas, but surely even the slightest swing away from the conservatives in the ‘Eddisbury’ part would help Labour to no end. I can imagine something similar in Reading West & Mid Berkshire or Meridian (if it still existed, no idea about the new one) which Labour almost won in 1997 - again that infamous Birmingham overspill estate paired with ultra-conservative rural Solihull. Chester South is the more naturally Tory half of Chester by some margin. That this seat is in play is fairly staggering. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 1, 2024 21:07:41 GMT
I don’t know the proportions in terms of electorate but in normal times I get the impression this would be a 50:50 battle between the Chester South part being the Labour stronghold (certainly since 2017 given the poor Conservative performance in Chester in in 2019) and the other 50% being the uniformly conservative rural areas, but surely even the slightest swing away from the conservatives in the ‘Eddisbury’ part would help Labour to no end. I can imagine something similar in Reading West & Mid Berkshire or Meridian (if it still existed, no idea about the new one) which Labour almost won in 1997 - again that infamous Birmingham overspill estate paired with ultra-conservative rural Solihull. Chester South is the more naturally Tory half of Chester by some margin. That this seat is in play is fairly staggering. Any idea of how popular or otherwise the Brandreth name is in this seat? Will be quite an achievement if two generations of Brandreths go down to defeat here (I do appreciate the boundaries have changed somewhat). |
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Post by trickyreturns on Jul 1, 2024 21:54:04 GMT
He was a very long time ago. I don't often find people who remember he was the MP.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 22:09:22 GMT
I think some people are allowing themselves to be misled a bit by the name here. Fewer than 20,000 voters here come from Chester and nearly half of these are in outlying villages. The urban part of Chester accounts for about 15% of the electoratte of this seat (and this seat contains less than 20% of the urban part of Chester) - there is no Chester 'half' of this constituency, nor a sothern 'half' of Chester in this seat. Of course there are many more voters than this in the departed wards around Winsford. On various models of UNS, this has been the only seat in the North West won by the Conservatives.
This is not to say the Conservatives can't lose it, but there's precious little Labour support ordinarily in the bulk of the seat which is coming in from Eddisbury. I guess Labour would tend to carry Weaverham.
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ryan
Non-Aligned
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Posts: 3
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Post by ryan on Jul 1, 2024 22:09:41 GMT
Brandreth remains popular in chester he is head of university of chester
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 22:31:17 GMT
Brandreth remains popular in chester he is head of university of chester He is the Chancellor of a University and not the head. It is a purely ceremonial position. When I was working at Heriot-Watt, Alec Douglas Home served as Chancellor of the University. He was not elected but appointed.. He was respected but I certainly wouldn’t have called him popular with the staff and students. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 1, 2024 23:12:42 GMT
Surely not a coincide that Aphra Brandreth (who was a Richmond Councillor previously) was selected for this seat?
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 1, 2024 23:19:50 GMT
Surely not a coincide that Aphra Brandreth (who was a Richmond Councillor previously) was selected for this seat? We can be sure that Aphra isn't a Behnite. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 14:35:47 GMT
The collective wisdom of the forum prevailed here, not terribly close in the end.
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